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That's quite possible. A cold pool there support's the 50-50. Without that it's possible for linkage.

Jamaica is in serious trouble with this one if it is able to drift westward and develop as conditions become more favorable shear-wise. An approach from the south ala the 12z Euro would be a) highly unusual and b) the most dangerous for Kingston especially if it winds up in the RFQ by some stroke of bad luck. Most of the really nasty TCs in Jamaica's history (e.g. Gilbert, Charlie) have approached from the E/ESE.

Classic that we dedicate a whole 8 page thread to a NCRFB and then 3 days later get an actual thunderstorm

Occasional lightning/thunder here in Herndon.

Radar looks rather impressive heavy returns to my southwest. might get more than a sprinkle or shower

Thank you for the analysis. I do appreciate it. Thank you. Seems like we don't torch and have a short to get at least one warning level snowfall event. I'll take it. I appreciate the insight. Thank you!

looks more interesting than yesterday, but I'd prefer a month earlier with similar dynamics lol

Mezcal class Happ hour tomorrow and special for rest of week Food is also for week Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

Both dates occurred during snowfall. February 13-14, 2014 saw a storm dump 12.5" of snow (with a period of heavy windswept rain). A second system brought another 1.6" of snow. Those are Central Park figures.

loud thunder and bright lightning!

The winds and stochastic variability likely contributed.

Pleasantly surprised to see some lighting strikes over northern Virginia

Wasn't the February 14-15, 2014 occurrence during a snowstorm, Don?

What's causing this similarity, is it because the higher winds are equalizing temperatures across the region, Don?

I know we do lol. Just not right up next to the road lol. How come there's so many different terms used to describe the same thing 1) wetlands 2) marshes 3) swamps?

Boring weather. Cool morning, got up to 72. Had a fire drill at 11 and it was shockingly warm.

Today was the third consecutive day with a one-degree difference in high temperatures among Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains. That set a new record for most consecutive such days.

For the most part we in Dc benefit the most from a mid December start to a cold pattern. They never last more than one solid month or interspersed in a two month period and then back to mild trend . I think Nov is about a 50/50 split whereas in general we do not want October to be solidly below average

I know the weather has been boring but this subform has been quite dead. We better pick it up or a Mod will post the yearly question do we want to merge with the New York City subforum. Of course the answer is F-NO!

10 hours without a post. Did something occur? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Hey dude. My 80 yr old bud got whacked good from what looks like to me as an isolated downburst with 6 to 10 trees down. Huge uprooted tree just missed his house.

why?

Sunny and 51! At least it’s not 60’s

the 11 best enso analogs (we won’t know which actually end up the best for another month or two) since 2000 are the Novembers of 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2024 There does seem to be some correlation between a colder November and a better chance at snow those winters. These are stats for BWI. The 4 warmest November’s were 2001, 2011, 2022 and 2024 and those years went on to average 3.9” of snow. The 4 Coldest were 2000, 2013, 2017, 2021 and they went on to average 19.4” Now let’s assume 2013-14 was a fluke outlier (which I do) even if we remove it and replace it with the next coldest year 2005-6 the mean is 14.5” which is close to a median winter at BWI and significantly better than 3.9” So it does seem colder November=better