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We can see how the 500mb patterns have changed during this -PDO interval in the 2020s. Now we get very strong Aleutian Ridges and weaker -PNA troughs out West. This goes to the PNA variability that has been experienced since 2019. So even with such strong -PDO values, we are getting more changes between +PNA and -PNA. We saw this last winter with the strong to record +PNA for a La Niña. This was also the case with the 20-21 La Niña. Same for January 22. There has also been the tendency for a much stronger Southeast Ridge than was the case from the 50s into 70s. While we have also seen some significant -PNA intervals like in December 2021, the long term trend against these fluctuations is for a more positive PNA. But not as dramatic as the EA index with the record heatwaves in Europe.

Tolland this morning.

.5 ish we take

.53” since yesterday, storms died as the moved east of the Tolland mountain range

You beat your June total in 1 day.

Cracked 2" total for the event with this morning's rain

I agree with you. Up to this point in time, things seem to be lining up against a -NAO/-AO winter

On and off showers overnight 0.73” since yesterday evening

I mean we saw -EPO poleward blocking last winter with a +QBO, which actually fit the Eric Webb musings in the fall of +QBO/-ENSO causing poleward ridging well. I also completely see your -QBO/-ENSO blocking arguments too, 2011-12 being an exception of course. That said, I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

2.56”

Still raining in huntingtown. Haven't had a 12hr period like this in a number of years. Tons of lightning last night, Benson wasn't liking it. Not sure how much I got so far, I need to buy a new rain gauge.

Total 1.13”, may get a few hundredths more per radar. But pretty happy that I didn’t have to water the garden

And it was only for a month. It needs to sustain +2.0 for multiple months to be considered a super el nino. That was only done in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. Plus, the RONI only reached +1.5 at its peak, which is not only significantly lower than the 4 super el nino years (all of the above years reached at least +2.25), but also lower than every strong el nino year (1957-58, 1965-66, 1986-88, 1991-92, and 2009-10). Not to mention, the MEI was only a borderline weak/medium el nino. (Of the strong el nino years, only 2009-10 has a comparable MEI peak to 2023-24.) 2023-24 is a strong, but not super, el nino.

The last half hour or so is the most impressive rainfall I have seen here in a month. Up to 1.3" for the event. That's a little more than half the total rainfall for June.

Low of 70 with .93” of rain. Now we start the pivot towards beautiful weather. Much needed.

Heading to the beach for the weekend looks like a shitty travel day but possibly a spectacular rest of the week??

It looks like GAWX posted that it peaked at +1.95. I thought it peaked at +2.0. Maybe what I saw was rounded up? I guess 1.95 isn’t technically super.

Ended up with 0.48" of rain yesterday. Have 0.16" today. Still raining, 71F.

Getting some decent downpours this morning. Up to 0.95"

Corn sweat. I recall dew points near or even above 90F in Iowa in summer of 1995.

0.00 on the stein gauge.

Yeah, we had a screaming STJ. Cold air just didn’t line up with it, only when it took a temporary reprieve we got snow twice from northern stream waves that trended south at the last minute.

Playing Ledges Golf Club in York, Maine this morning. Looks hard as hell.

Just took its sweet time. Was 92 today so had the instability earlier. Just enjoy the sun and stein as summer is here.

Forecast Discussion SUNDAY JULY 27 2025 George BM is one of the foremost senior forecasters we have ever seen. No one can forecast storms like this force of nature. GBM is at it all day and all night on into the new day, will keep right on, displaying almost outright supernatural energy, stamina, and incredible insight into the vagaries of meteorology! George BM, this is one of your finest EVER! Thank you so much! This weather community would never be the same without you! In other news, Everyone stay safe and enjoy all the rains that have been falling on the DC Metro Region in the past 24 hours. Here's to more of the same overnight on into tomorrow!