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Glue factory

Too bad it’s probably real and we’re cooked.

Ensembles still looking solid.

Look at that KCLT bulls eyes on the map above. Wow. Both the GFS and EURO are solid. Hope to continue these today for sure.

17 this morning and Winds at 5 mph. It’s chilly! Waiting for tomorrow’s forecasted snow.

Dulles stuck at 14. Still no mention of the blown low temp predictions in the AFD. But the "no longer an obvious coldest night" bit has been copied and pasted into every AFD for *days on end*. That's just plain lazy.

Every models has this stupid appendage/second low that forms way NE and it just chases right behind it out to sea. lost that dumbbell Fuji look from yesterday that pulled us all in.

When a commenter asked about the lower totals on the WRAL map than those included in the Winter Storm Watch, WRAL’s Grant Skinner responded: ”Very good question! We decided to go more conservative with the totals since there’s still model uncertainty. Our team talked about the latest model guidance and overall pattern yesterday and early this morning. It’s not clear where a heavier band of snow will set up. It’s just a first look; we’d rather trend higher if needed than say a bunch of snow and then not have near as much.”

SE Mass might still score......but enjoy the cirrus everyone else. Congrats Nova Scotia.

It’s most prudent to start conservative and make incremental changes (increasing totals) than potentially having to go the other way.

I’m not telling anyone anything they don’t already know, but there’s still plenty of time for significant changes (good or bad). It’s for this reason that it’s important not to get too emotionally high, either way, from one model cycle to the next. For example, I’m naturally most concerned with what the SE coast of NC gets being that it’s where my family and I live. Although things currently look good for us, I’m well aware of just how quickly things can change with relatively minor adjustments synoptically. The peak of the storm would occur around midnight on Sunday (Saturday overnight), which is still about 66 hours out. Having literally been tracking and forecasting in eastern NC for more than 35 years, I know the importance of keeping one’s expectations in check and that it’s best to retain a more cautious approach with the snow accumulation projections until we get inside the 36-48 window from peak conditions (not simply the start of the event). All that said, I’m genuinely hoping for an event that’s most pleasing to the vast majority of this board/sub-forum!

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/512-jburns/content/

A lot of fake cold out there this morning. Only -1 here on the hill so far though.

I feel like he used to be much better. Now all he does is just regurgitate whatever the euro says.

Yup my sentiments exactly. I was hoping to go back to back for something historic. It would have been sweet to double down on this pack or even just refresh it with a 6-8 type deal, that would have been awesome.

Just hit my low temperature around 5:30 am of 25

GEFS went up from 0z

Make a detailed post discussing the modeled synoptics and why you believe this window holds potential for a winter storm.

So the ICON schooled the Euro after all, if this holds. shrug. Still so close to something bigger here..we wait for 12z

I was really hoping we would get to stack another 10-15 or possibly more on top of the 15" or so thats OTG. How often does that happen in CT? Virtually never. Last time was like 2011 when there was 3-4 feet OTG. Even another low end warning event 6-8" would have been sick. What a waste of a good setup and frigid airmass. oh well..

We’ve been significantly above forecast lows last couple mornings. Bottomed out at 25.5 yesterday (forecast was 20) and are stuck at 25.2 right now (forecast was 18). Made it to 39.2 yesterday

What a waste of an explosive setup. Back to Steinangle season.

Never had a feel for this like I did last week.

Literally every single model along with RAH shows more than that for those areas. lol. Playing the conservative card because their feelings got hurt after the last system is silly.

This thing is cooked. Multiple lows suck, always screws a good event.