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Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data
chubbs replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Nope. No one measures the temperature of Chester County and there is no "actual factual raw data" for Chester County in your chart. Your line is a calculated value and you are making a rookie mistake. Taking the simple average of changing station network skews the trend. If you have cooler stations at the end vs the beginning you will confound the network and weather changes and bias the results. Easy to demonstrate using the 90F data for Chesco stations that you posted recently. The table below sorts the Chesco stations you are using from high to low 90F days. For stations with a long record only the last 30 years are used. Due to location, the older stations tend to be at the top of the 90F list and the newest stations at the bottom. The 90F day plot that you posted recently is skewed by the change in the station network from 1950 to today. That's why your chart doesn't match the raw 90F data from Phoenixville, West Chester or Avondale, which shows an increasing, not a decreasing trend. Your result is determined by the stations you have included not our weather., Same thing happens with temperature. Your county estimate is biased and the bias increases the further back you go as the county network becomes warmer and warmer relative to today's network. The 1940s network is completely different than the one you have put together for today. -
We got 0.11" overnight. DTW got 0.43". First measurable rain in exactly 2 weeks
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Trading him doesn’t mean they are giving up on him. They’ve got Basallo at AAA and Adley is going to want a multi year deal. If he’s healthy and we can get something good in return, trade him.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Chrisrotary12 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I thought it smelled like chlorine. My 1st instinct was a pool, but no one around me has one. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
jm1220 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Hazy/smoky. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I thought the same this morning -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
nycwinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
some people plan vacations in advance for the weather you could have you know planned it as well -
Picked up 0.21” yesterday in Lebanon with MTD now at 4.77”. Sitting at 86/74 right now…looks like a good bet for more gully-washers later today, tonight and tomorrow .
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
weatherwiz replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Finally got the air quality alert issued for Mass. I noticed a different odor as well, didn't have the same scent as some of the previous intrusions of smoke from a few months back. -
2025 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Met1985 replied to Maggie Valley Steve's topic in Southeastern States
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Got some nice crackling thunder and heavy rain this morning. Quality summertime storm.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
AQI hit 176 here. Almost has an electrical burning smell to the air…not the usual smoke smell. -
LOL!! Actually impervious to conspiracy climate theorist who support doom and gloom and for some reason try to convince folks there is actually something we can do to impact our climate. A great example of one of these conspiracy theorist is our old buddy Al Gore - he is my favorite prophet of climate doom and gloom! Here is Gore speaking at the WEF: "[Greenhouse gases are] now trapping as much extra heat as would be released by 600,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding every single day." "That's what's boiling the oceans... and creating the droughts, and melting the ice, and raising the sea level, and causing these waves of climate refugees, predicted to reach one billion in this century." That is just pure loony tunes stuff!!! I wonder how many folks on this forum actually believe any of the above from our pal Al??
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the politics threads have been hidden or deleted. again, my apologies for your loss, all of our loss really. his life of service to others and the values he held are to be celebrated and emulated.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah, easily the worst air quality of July so far here just east of HVN. Jul 26, 11:20 am 84 61 45 84 NE 8 4.00 Haze -
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Stein has settled in the past few weeks. Hopefully a few showers tomorrow, otherwise not too many chances on the horizon. - Today
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Actually it isn't. That's USHCN data, so stns are the same. That dataset doesn't flip stns around. If data is missing, they estimate for the month. Secondly, I've seen a comparison of aftrn n morning stns for max temps, and the pattern is very similar. Sorry I don't have those graphs. The issue we are seeing now isn't max temps so much as higher mins, and less winter cold.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You WANT more 90s? Glutton for punishment Here the dustbowl saw a massive increase from previous decades then calmed down some in the 1960s. Avg annual days of 90+ at Detroit (1870s and 2020s not full decade). 1870s- 4 1880s- 5 1890s- 9 1900s- 6 1910s- 11 1920s- 9 1930s- 19 1940s- 16 1950s- 15 1960s- 11 1970s- 12 1980s- 13 1990s- 12 2000s- 10 2010s- 16 2020s- 12 -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
nycwinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
what a refreshing day it today those northeast winds this time of year always feel good.. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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Fortunately we have actual factual raw data to show how PHL Airport is quite noticeably heating at a rate quite higher compared to PHL during our current warmer climate cycle. The last 25 years as the UHI continues to worsen is the telltale sign based on the analysis. The differences between PHL and Chesco continue to steepen. If we break the average temperature change down to simple 5 year increments highlighting the growing gap between PHL and Chester County we can clearly see the worsening urban heat island that is PHL. From 2000-2004 +5.2% / 2005 - 2009 +5.5% / 2010-2014 +6.9% / 2015-2019 +7.1% / 2020-2024 +7.1% - can't be much clear than that! The gap continues to widen - I suspect with the PHL problems we may start seeing near double digit % gaps with the delta widening from where it is now in the +3.8 degree difference to somewhere near 4.5 degrees within the next decade or so!