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Is it winter yet?

Glyconix

The thinking from the SPC is that the storms will likely fire pre frontal. NWS at the very least, is advertising the potential of the front timing up very well with max daytime heating for cpa. Maybe they aren't buying into the pre-frontal convection at all . You also don't usually hear them say things like "the slight risk remains in place for good reasons," which also shows me that the discrepancies weren't just in my head. Lol .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The approach of a long wave trough aloft will put us in the favorable right entrance region of a jet streak moving poleward on Thursday. The cold front associated with this trough will be arriving in Central PA in peak heating/mid-day and shear also increases to 40+KT over most of the area. Expect SHRA and perhaps a TSRA or two to be ongoing in the AM over wrn PA and fire up over the CTP CWA in the late morning and aftn. As the day continues, the CAPEs in the SE get back into the 1500-2000J range in the E. The SPC SLGT risk of severe remains in place for good reasons. Flooding should be much less of a concern Thurs vs Wed with storm motions much quicker despite PWAT values of 1.5-2" (highest E). Still a MRGL risk of excessive rain, though, as repeated cells could make for localized problems. Not enough of a risk nor confidence to post a FF Watch at this point.

Yep, 0z has the stronger westerly flow which drives the heat right to the coast. That will be key-if we get the onshore flow there's a strong cap on it getting higher than low 90s near the coast when water temps are still low 60s. Maybe even 80s if it's more of a SSE flow. But westerly downslope and we heat up big time everywhere.

Big correction to hotter on GFS. 100+ now looks like a lock away from immediate coast.

The difference between the GFS and most of the other models is that the GFS has much higher heights out west while the Euro, EPS, and CMC have more of a trough out west. The higher heights on the GFS out west (very possibly a mistake) allow the high pressure and backdoor front over eastern Canada to drop southward into our region. If the GFS corrects and introduces lower heights out west it will probably become more like the other models. Likewise if the other models start showing higher heights out west they will be more aggressive with the backdoor cold front. WX/PT

Almost midnight and the air temperatures are 80 to 83 degrees on lower and central Delmarva. Summer is definitely here.

I could see a late morning upgrade to an ENH risk from I-66 north for a 30% wind. Timing is everything in these parts, if that front lags then it's going to come down to luck on who gets a decent storm. Seems like we flip to real summer after this frontal passage.

I noticed some discrepancies throughout the day with the forecast. The big question seems to be will the storms Initiate along a pre frontal boundary or along the lagging cold front. Watching initiation tomorrow is key. If the storms can get going out head of the cold front instead of the pre-frontal trough we could be looking at something big tomorrow.

IMO we are at least a year away (maybe longer) from any substantial PDO change

https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/kaos.mp4

Saw lightning from the storm in upstate NY all the from downtown jersey city. Pretty cool tops must be pretty high

Too late... I already stole it. https://kaosfactory.github.io/desktopX1.html

I am so curious what the winds are in this thing right now. Conventional wisdom would say that Erick is bombing out and maybe some insane wind gusts are wrapping around the eyewall. However, I can't help but notice the trochoidal wobbles of the pinhole eye. This circulation isn't fully stacked on a tiny axis centered within the pinhole eye just yet. Rather the eye is wobbling around within a larger local circulation, most likely a EWRC. I trust the 125mph estimate for now

Pin hole eyes can really produce some high end winds relative to pressure. Also the cdo is rather small too.

The HRRR clobbers most of the area tomorrow, but the other CAMs are more scattered. It's consistent with SPC's concern that the cold front will be well to our west at peak heating, so the storms will have to form on the pre-frontal trough. That scenario can still work well here, but it justifies the hesitation (at least for now) to hold off on upgrading to ENH. Otherwise, I think it would be an ENH setup, and it still might be.

Someone claimed this They claimed they had the dream around June 14

Stormtracker background image...

Ravens are pretty stacked.. I don't think they have a weak part on this team. Maybe kicker. Defense looks great, maybe top 5. This also takes out the wild card of if Nate Wiggins is good or not.

Thinking about using this for intellistar emulator... Is that OK? Already using a stormtracker image. I would ultimately like them to be all images from our forum.

Training camp starts in a month. Can't come soon enough.

Sunset was on point tonight! Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Insane rate of intensification in the past hour. The EPac has delivered some ridiculous RI landfalls in recent years. While not quite Otis (and thankfully far away from major population centers), Erick is putting on one of the more remarkable RIs while approaching landfall in a long time

Putrid loss by the Orioles after being up 8-0. 12 unanswered runs? Pathetic. This team isn't to be taken seriously, and should be sellers.

I am surprised how well that line held together. It's still holding together moving into Pennsylvania. The HRRR kept showing much less of a bow for northeast Ohio.