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  2. weatherwiz
    I've read that if that tornado had either started a bit sooner or just tracked a few miles different the death count would have been substantially higher. Just missed a more concentrated populated area by a few miles
  3. bluewave
    Yeah, I have been saying this for a while now. Once past the spring forecast barrier, the models like the Euro do a great job with ENSO SST plumes forecast. So the record breaking nature of this event isn’t in doubt. We can see the strong coupling with the atmospheric patterns in the tropics and the very high shear in the Caribbean. But the subtropics or mid-latitudes continue to do their own thing. It’s a very strong -PDO pattern north of the tropics rights now. If this mid-latitude pattern can continue to have some influence going into the winter, then the Aleutian low could split or end up in a different location than usual. It’s also possible the typical strong Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay could at least at times get displaced further to the south over the Eastern CONUS. This could mean that the heavily precipitation zones with the STJ may vary from the 1997-1998 locations like we saw in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024.
  4. dendrite
    Yeah not feeling too optimistic about much sun today, but it’s early.
  5. BrianW
    This one was pretty big as well. Still the 2nd deadliest New England Tornado after Worcester in 1953. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1878_Wallingford_tornado
  6. weatherwiz
    Certainly possible the smoke could have an impact on surface temperatures but with an elevated mixed-layer moving in and dewpoints climbing instability shouldn't be an issue. Also, in terms of the MCS...this may sort of set the boundary for where the corridor of highest severe weather potential exists. This will probably leave behind some residual outflow boundaries and also have to watch out for a strong differential heating zone which may become established. But once the MCS passes things should begin destabilizing quickly. Big question I think is going to be do storms pop during the afternoon (like HRRR has). These would be more discrete/supercell and pose the greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes
  7. Typhoon Tip
    I noticed the wild fires N of Superior yesterday. Their plumes were streaking from source, due E at ludicrous speeds... owing to the ridge amplitude kissing the modest lower heights over midriff Canadian shield. ..blah blah. That said, there's definitely an MCS that's raged through eastern Ontario ...curving now SE through western QUE and is producing the typical outflow anvil canopy. It seems likely based upon these observations that both are true. It's probably hard to parse out of the vis satellite images how much is smoke and how much is cloud...I'd suggest most of what is seen is cloud however.
  8. dendrite
    Tough way to run a torch day. Maine stealing the rain. Looks like a nice storm diving into the CT Lakes in a bit. Been limiting screen time…just hit or miss posts. Lots of eye inflammation and migraines. Should probably get a lyme test but that would require going to a dr. 71°
  9. OceanStWx
    There is mixed research on smoke and storms. In some cases the smoke layer can actually hold the cap longer and allow the instability to really build before breaking (think smoke absorbs heat and warms that layer aloft). But that really depends on the height of the smoke layer.
  10. LakePaste25
    A lot of times, these seasonal models lean too heavily into the ENSO state. Same with the CPC seasonal outlooks. We saw that the last 2 winters with too much emphasis on the SE ridge in the East. Since this El Niño is going to be very strong to historic, I feel that the generic outlooks for the seasonal mean this winter will end up being more accurate. We will also need to see if the pacific jet strengthens this Fall and begins to reverse the -PDO.
  11. steve392
    Gorgeous morning. Nice breeze bringing in that ocean air smell into Meadowlands in Kearny, seagulls laughing. Close you eyes you could almost envision being at the shore.
  12. Cyclone-68
    Wiz to his credit mentioned this as a possibility just yesterday
  13. wxeyeNH
    Looking at the sat pics this morning there are lots of fires burning in Southern Ontario. The thick smoke plume is moving into our area. How much is this going to affect the severe storms later for NNE? Also the MCS is creating a lot of cloud cover especially this morning. So we are not getting much insolation. Maybe this will reduce convection later?
  14. Typhoon Tip
    I knew what you meant ... I was just adding for general readers that physics requires that a well mixed column has to obey the adiabat temperature distribution in general. If it is 2 am , and the 850 is 20C, and it is well mixed, it's in the 90s at the sfc. Whether or not the atmosphere is can be well mixed at 2 am or not is another matter LOL. That's why nearing evening on hot days, if one is excruciatingly nerdy enough like me... they might notice the light west wind that had steadily rustled leafs all afternoon suddenly goes calm; it's because the surface - albeit still hotter'n Hades - has slipped below the adiabat. That adiabatic temperature might be 98 given the 850, but the sfc has by then dropped below that temp...etc. DP plays a role... if the air is heavier it may stay elevated longer. The other way to think of it is that the mixing height has slipped lower than 850, and if there is a weaker/no gradient in those lower levels, that extinguishes the momentum.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly what I was getting at the past couple of days...pattern resembles La Nina right now. In the past, this would imply a flaw in the development of El Nino, whether it be weak and/or poorly coupled. However, that is not necessarily the case in our modern climate. Powerful, well coupled warm ENSO and cold phase Pacific are no longer mutually exclusive due to the degree of heat that is now stored in the Pacific basin. ENSO simply isn't as prominent a driver anymore because it's partially offset and this is what RONI tries to convey. I think Adam perceived this as me saying that El Nino isn't as well developed as most think, but that is not at all the case. It's just facing more prominent competition from around the hemisphere relative to it's predecessors.
  16. NEG NAO
    Wednesday the smoke could reach all the way to the surface in some areas- that combined with the very hot temps could make it the most dangerous day of the season so far..........
  17. CoastalWx
    Some hi res show an iso storm around here tomorrow. Probably ends up south though.
  18. A-L-E-K
    some low end thunder chances entering the mix, probably a miss west/south but will be nice to see some towers again
  19. wncsnow
    .27 overnight. Storm total of 3.54
  20. bluewave
    This is another example of how the models past 15 days really don’t have much skill other than general forecasts for ENSO SST plumes. Notice the locations of the ridges and troughs verifying are reversed from the seasonal forecast issued in May. Most of the time during the 2020s summers the long range models miss the strong -PDO and +AMO influence of these greatly expanded subtropical or mid-latitude ridges. July forecast issued in May Verification so far
  21. EC609
  22. olafminesaw
    Most everyone cashed in, but still some losers and winners.
  23. LakePaste25
  24. Today
  25. weatherwiz
    9z HRRR for JACK Probably would like to see a bit more curvature in the 0-1km layer for true concern for a strong tornado, but those sfc winds end up more 200° you're going to ramp that up quickly. But this is a significant amount of CAPE up to the EL and that mlvl shear. You get a mature supercell moving into this environment and you're probably looking at a spaceship structure. Pretty good inflow into the environment too.
  26. Great Snow 1717
    Methuen borders Lawrence I can always smell smoke where I live in Methuen....
  27. LakePaste25
    Definitely a lack of +U out there in the N pac. Wonder if this changes in the Fall.
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