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As y'all have noted, it will all come down to the rates. While not quite the same sfc low track (at least what's being forecasted), the Sun night-Mon morning snow Feb 22-23 1987 was one that I remember where rates overcame surface temps around 33 during the storm in the metros. The high was actually a balmy 48F at DCA 7 or so hours before the snow started. Areas north and east were able to cash in much better in this event because of their thermals. I believe this event gave parts of southern PA over 20". Low was more tucked towards the VA Capes initially.

lookin at it now. Yeah, we'd sign. wow

yea a watch dude--not a warning. 90% of watches get downgraded anyway in our area

I don't envy Mike or the mets at Mt Holly. There's potential, so you want the public to have plenty of warning. BUT...

Last February my gauge recorded .15” total. So far for this Feb I am at .33” with more precip likely coming today. Last January came it at only .35”, and this January at .13”. Very comparable. All in all it was a decent spring here last year following Jan and Feb, so there is hope.

If this were trending like 5 days out then maybe but NW ticke in this range are welcomed

The surface low couid be 25 miles off ACY and the coast would still be snow.

Yep, another system that looks good on paper but me and you get hosed by elevation Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

I went from 0.000000000 to about 10 inches on the NAM. Pretty wild for a storm 60 hours out.

imagine going from a miss to talking about mixed precip in 24 hrs...oh wait we did that on 1/25

Oh please Mother Nature, no “warm nose” this time!

As Jim Ross would say "Business has just picked up"

Winter storm warning here?

Just going on the strength of the SLP will want to get this west a bit.

3k NAM looks like it’s really starting to crank as it ends. Temp drops fast the last couple hours of the run approaching 0z Monday. Shows snow for a lot of the area all day Sunday but with temps of 35-36…that won’t do it. So white rain during the day except for coldest spots and then accumulating after 22-0z.

They sometimes hoist blizzard warnings in the plains just for blowing snow, even if there's nothing falling.

Hi RU, I like your posts, and the fact that you are just to my NW. The forecasts in text this morning for the two areas were exactly as I wrote. Since then, Mt. Holly downgraded it to this for Perth Amboy: Sunday Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then snow. High near 38. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. However, Upton, for Staten Island, has increased the inches in their text forecast: Sunday Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then snow. High near 37. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

39 degrees and rain. Not much rain overnight .21” Appears first line of storms last night was a big miss. Hows the rivers and the ice? Anybody having any problems yet? Models are being the models again. You think in this day and age there would be more consistent models…terrible!

Pretty consistent if one is being truly objective.

FWIW, the FV3 at range also spits out a preferred coastal track.

It would benefit us more

Parents live there. I may do it

Yea it’s possible, totals don’t matter for blizzard warning so you can have 4-8 6-12 and still have a blizzard

At some point those of us NYC south and east don’t want this thing too much closer. Seen this movie before.

Blizzard criteria is very hard to meet these days. I don't see no watches or warnings for the B word being raised. We get Winter Storm Warnings and that's it.