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thats snowfall not liquid

I don't think it would get that far west given the NAO block, but it could certainly tuck into the cape or maybe even se MA.

Bro we don’t care if it misses or not, you are literally contributing nothing though. We all know how to look at the models.

Low was 1.8 degrees here, agree with @EastCoast NPZ, wind probably helped hold temp up a bit. Set a new 'cool max' for the date with the 19.0 high, old mark was 22 degrees in 1982. Nowhere near record low, that is -5 from 1987. The 1.8 with the W at 7 mph wind makes a WC of -11.

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

Yep. Give me a 990mb LP over a 960mb LP all day.

JB said last night he has no changes on this hitting us. But he also said he might have to abandon his idea also. But right now this idea of a storm here, looks like burnt toast

Also the euro ai does not agree with its lesser physics based brother

The EPS from last night showed a few inches - what evidence do you have that it will be all or nothing ?

Sorry Chris, as a native in this city, goal is to push as much snow as possible, THEN they will go back out and probably widen/wing plow will push banks back in (possibly) Then trash day, is an issue, we are off one day in the city. My final 20.4" (give or take)

3.7° right now with a 20 inch or so snow pack. One of those times where I won't mind getting a storm this weekend but I'm not gonna live and die with it either. I'm pretty content right now with the way things are and look. The one thing lacking so far this winter has been extreme cold. I've been below zero only once -1°, Daytimes have been cold but for whatever reason we haven't had one of those nights of clear, calm, and widespread radiational cooling to negative double digits. I'm nitpicking I know.

It’s definitely a unique setup. The vort max drops due south from Hudson Bay to Atlanta and detonates off Charleston, SC.

Like Kev said, it's going to snow...but is it occluded garbage, or a bomb? I know people like seeing explosive runs, but if the bomb denotes far enough away it's just not as impactful.

Yes sir

It is not uncommon at all for these to trend back west as we get closer. It is only Tuesday. Just watch trends. I’ll check back in to the models tonight. No need in living and dying by every individual model. .

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

I’m giving it until Thursday night to agree. Not out of desperation, just knowing that anything can happen.

Even though the HRRR was too low and the 3km NAM was too high, I'll give them both credit for correctly calling that temps would keep slightly falling after sunrise. IAD is still sitting around their low of 3 or 4, BWI is still about 13. I got down to 8.6 at 8am. But our big local winner looks like it is Manassas at -1. Colder than any of the MD Mesonet sites except for Garrett Co.

This could be a dumb question but I still suffer PTSD from that huge storm in 2010 where NYC got pummeled with snow while NNE rained. Is there a chance this amps up and plows up the CT River Valley, producing similar outcomes?

In my experience, Weathernext does good on totals/moisture but it’s not lapping anyone in that regard. But it does run circles around every other model on track and the overall setup. I’d be worried if it lost it out to sea. The 3 run trend for it is virtually the same and locked in.

That's a lot of QPF for an ensemble mean 5 days out.

Trends seem clear that its all or nothing on the ULL enhancement. Coastal is too far offshore.

we're about 100 hours until this storm actually gets even close to us all we need is 100 miles west jog and we get a SECS!

I don't even listen to them (all noise) - - only well known reputable METS - IMO have to keep all options open this far out