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Pgh met. "I have very low confidence in what the exact outcome for this will end up being. Way too many moving parts. I think the reason why you do see such a northwest lean on the 6z EPS spread has to do with this circled shortwave. More interaction would try to tug the 500 low farther west when climbing the coast."

Already seeing snowfall maps making the rounds on Twitter and other platforms. We need to limit access to this information for the general public, lol. Hilariously stupid to post these so early in a forum like that!

After yesterday's debacle, it's great to track a legit SNOW storm.

If you're looking for truly high end amounts up here, you'll find out.

Wouldn’t it draw in warm air if the LP deepens too much?

"Prince Euro." I see what you did there. LOL I continue to regress in temperature. Down to 31.0 F.

The GFS did get snow trying to go back in the foothills this run a little late on the phase but all and all good trends !

Can't say for sure but if you want something interesting to look out check this out: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_mapplots.html?ofsregion=cb&subdomain=0&model_type=wtemp_forecast The bay is very cold right now and places below 30 on that map are where freezing is imminent

I got a weird feeling about this one like it might smack Richmond and Hampton Roads. What past storms could this be compared to?

I'd guess this really starts Saturday mid-day for most. These usually speed up in time in my experience.

These kinds of posts are great for people like me (I only have a vague idea of how to interpret the 500 mb maps, I never know what the important features are on these). Thank you!

Sundays to Monday yea This is a monster

pushing mod now.. snow growth is very good

Justin Berk is a big fan of the Canadian and tracked it this past storm. I kept hoping it was wrong because it was much more sleet than snow, but apparently it was right. Good to get the Canadian on our side. And the Euro, and the Euro AI.

Just noticed the same here. Got up to almost 35 but down to 32.9

I hope I never see this half snow/half sleet mess again -- got about 9-10 inches and it shovels like wet sand and is super slick. Struggled plowing uphill with my tractor and my wife's Outback got stuck in about 4 inches of it on level ground this AM. I have a long, hilly driveway and got it plowed down as far as possible without tearing up my gravel but it will probably still be a challenge until it starts melting in a week.

Eps an eps ai both tightly clustered off the Delmarva

12z GEFS is solid and better than the OP

interesting start times between models.....i know the day this really cranks for most is Sunday but some guidance brings this into VA for some light to moderate snows by mid day Saturday, even earlier for western parts of the state.....this could be a 36+ hour event for some folks with some serious wind toward the coast.....this hobby is worse than crack

Sounds perfect to me. Where do I sign up.

Right over Cory lol

Don’t question it, you measured it correctly, you should only clear the board once a day, when the storm is over, or changes precip type. There are a lot of inflated totals out there.

12z GEFS with more coherent signal.

GFS ensembles or other?

The GFS has intermittently shown a big storm impacting the region for almost a week now. The 21st, 23rd, and 24th model runs looked good... just not the recent runs.