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I never thought it would be a MA storm, and that's probably is a good thing for NYC and PHL. If this turns out to be a MA storm, then NYC and PHL will get close to nothing.

more than 6 hours? That's a shame since it's their #1 I can def fix that 18 in Marshfield if you think it's too low. Their final PNS on Feb 19th has Marshfield 18" there is no times next to the numbers so its assumed everything is final, doesn't mean it still can't be wrong

Commish is wise

“Hey, let’s smack the shit out of that hornets nest over there. Now run!!!!”

I've been so busy I didn't see the models yet and just saw that post first and was like damn that deescalated quickly..

You could be exactly right! As you say, "we shall see"

Wouldn’t be using that model for this . It started out as a torch . I think HFD to Hunch is snow zone

we nape, we melt.

The sun angle is doing work this week. There is a bare spot in my yard, first actual grass I’ve seen in about a month. Snowpack is now dwindling by about an inch or two per day.

If only the Canadian Parallel wasn't the Canadian Parallel

Let’s see what the NAM does

43 with the sun out. Nape and melt underway

12z mostly sweet suite - onto 18z

My take on all the models is they all have their strengths and weaknesses - so I prefer using NBM (National Blend of Models)

was just going to say that to him.. like you said better than having it in the GOM right now .

Maybe it will be a dry day. Lol

wow just checked one hour later and the snow is really coming down and blowing all over the place blizzard like conditions

Track of 500 feature is ideal....as indicated. Remains to be seen how close to reality it is come Sunday night and Monday. A track as indicated would deliver the goods!

It’s Tuesday. The general direction of this will be clear tomorrow not today.

This 96-132 hour range is where we've been at on a few occasions this winter, and ever since the beginning of weather tracking itself, that models begin to trend towards less favorable outcomes. I'd say 8 or even 9 times out of 10 when a MECS/HECS is seemingly looking likely, it falls apart in this specific hour range. It's all fun and games until the NAM is in range. There is no such thing as a rug pull at this point, we have so long to go. One of the more discouraging shifts in NWP in recent years has been the lack of confidence gained from some ensemble guidance. And what I mean is the EPS and GEFS tend to follow the OP or be incredibly underdispersive. The Euro AIFS ENS isn't as bad in that regard, which is encouraging because it came in looking great at 12z and NW of the OP. Despite some gripes with them, the ensembles are truly our best form of guidance at this range if you know how to use them. These pretty snow maps from the deterministic models are fun to look at, but they're purely entertainment at this range. With that in mind, if you blend the EPS, Euro AIFS ENS, GEFS, and CMC Ens... You find that you're basically split 50/50 on a hit or miss. The good news? The EPS has been trending towards the big solutions. And the GEFS is just a bad model, so who cares lol.

Canadians Para

Sunny here - came out about an hour ago 47 / 37 Foggy night in store

Post more please Post less please

Those are some borderline thermals.

Hey @stormtracker I guess this potential storm is gonna be my thread...lol So Iet me know if/when ya deem it necessary to start one (perhaps if it's still there by Thursday 12z?). I have my doubts but I'll give it a shot