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This line blowing through.

I saw lightning rn.

Too?

Euro is damage Wednesday night too.

what event

I like the 20 to 30” snow total for Lancaster, which is very close to normal. We haven’t had above normal snow in the LSV since the 20-21 Winter, so I would sign up for this MU forecast. Near normal snow would feel like a blockbuster Winter compared to the last few years.

This is a fun event

I don’t think we had any here but I wasn’t looking closely. Had an instantaneous rain rate of 6.13”/hr.

Beer

Your cold fronts after a cutter will be great? lol

In other words, things seem to be moving toward a vintage fast start to winter as is often, though not always, the case during La Niña winters.

Whats the scale on that product? Or is it as simple as the color coding is p-type?

What does that have to do with winter? Lol

Yes, but sharp cold shots are still possible. Below normal months can also occur.

A few showers are possible tonight. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mild days. Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. A weak cold front could cross the region Wednesday, perhaps touching off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s before milder conditions return for a time next weekend. Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.583 today.

Low freezing levels and convection. Many are seeing some graupel make it to the sfc.

There is a really strong timelag between Stratosphere warming and -NAO at different times of the year: Nov 1-15: +45 days Nov 15-30: +40 days Dec 1-15: +35 days Dec 15-30: +30 days Jan 1-15: +25 days Jan 15-30: +25 days Feb 1-28: +20 days March 1-31: +15 days Cold Stratosphere has a +0-day timelag to corresponding +NAO at all times of the cold season.

Maxed out well SW of you. Settle down.

It’s a different year..get ready.

And now lightning and thunder . Every front since early summer maxes out here . Insane

Where in Melville do you live? I grew up there as well, New York Ave and Old country road. Never saw deer there. We had a turkey in Commack on my lawn a few years ago. Was funny, right before thanksgiving

Currently live in Melville and this time of the year we see them everyday. Daytime too. Yesterday even had wild turkeys-first time I’ve seen them

That's funny as hell !!!!

That’s wild. Was absolutely never a thing when I was growing up here. The only deer then were on the barrier islands and way out east. Nothing in western Suffolk or Nassau

The mean gets down to a mere +10, which compares to +14-15 on the prior run and +18 on several runs before that! I estimate 35-40 % of members with a very early season major SSW (10 mb wind reversal), by far the highest yet! Here’s a 3 run animation showing the weaker SPV trend: The last times late Nov/early Dec was this weak was 2009-10, 2000-1, and 1996-7 with 2016-7 almost as weak. The last time there was an actual major SSW (reversal) in late Nov or early Dec was way back on 12/7/1987! The last time there was one at any point in Nov or Dec was on 12/29/2001. Before that there was 12/16/1998, the aforementioned 12/7/1987, the legendary 12/31/1984, 12/3/1981, 11/24/1968, 12/7/1965, and 11/30/1958. So, it having been a whopping 24 years since the last Nov or Dec major SSW meaning we’re extremely overdue. Prior to the current 24 year drought, the longest on record between early season majors was 13 years followed by 11 years. The current average return period is 8 years. Regarding these 8 early major SSWs, how many were after allowing for a lag period followed by a notable long cold period in a good portion of the E US? -12/29/2001: no notable cold -12/16/1998: cold 1-3 weeks later -12/7/1987: cold 3-6 weeks later including intense cold 4-5 weeks later -12/31/1984: cold 2-6 weeks later including extreme cold 3 weeks later -12/3/1981: cold 1-7 weeks later including extreme cold 5 weeks later -11/24/1968: cold 2-7 weeks later -12/7/1965: cold 5-9 weeks later including extreme cold 7 weeks later -11/30/1958: cold 1-6 weeks later So, 7 of the 8 early season major SSWs were followed by cold domination starting mainly 1-3 weeks later and lasting for 2-6 weeks with a one week period of intense cold in 1/2 the cases.