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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
WxWatcher007 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Southern CT year. Big snows. Big rains. -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
South coast summer -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CT Valley Snowman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Wouldn't be shocked if some of us in the interior west of the heavy rain axis pick up like .5 to 1.5" in afternoon convection. -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
jlauderdal replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Squall line west of albany looks promising -
Hope we can see some clearing / sun after this line of storms /rain moves through.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
BBasile replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
FPizz replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think he was taking people saying how it could become one too seriously, but he also must follow a bunch of weenies because I haven't really seen anyone with a degree say it only some hopeful hobbiests pondering about it. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
PDO correlation +PDO = more troughing in the east. 97-98 would’ve been an extreme torch without the +PDO. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think somewhere close to neutral PDO is the best scenario for a robust el nino. Strong/super el ninos have busted when the PDO was highly negative or highly positive. A near neutral PDO is the sweet spot (see 1965-66 and 2009-10). -
1.50” so far and more to come. I’m sure we’ll here more drought talk
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They typically break in our neck of the woods like the way things have been going here lately.
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Yeah, they snuck one in during 2004. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Lowest Number 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1889 5 0 2 1920 6 0 - 1907 6 0 - 1904 6 0 - 1902 6 0 3 1996 7 0 - 1984 7 0 - 1960 7 0 - 1906 7 0 4 1927 8 0 - 1917 8 0 - 1875 8 0 5 2004 9 0 - 1969 9 0 - 1905 9 0 - 1877 9 0
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
dendrite replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Scouts crying as their regattas float ashore Block Island. -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
ineedsnow replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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How’s that drought working out lol
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
0.09 -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Damage In Tolland replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Every merit badge and kerchief in Yawgoog washed away . -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Man SECT is getting annihilated already 3.75” with hours of heavy rainfall to go around the Old Saybrook area. -
3.18 so far at my station
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It interferes by *weakening* the SE trough and making it *even warmer* meanwhile a 97-98 type pattern increases the chances of a big snowstorm via the active southern stream. That winter came very close to multiple KUs that barely missed the cold air phase. 82-83/15-16 produced one and had +PDOs as well. In my several years of tracking weather it has always been preferable to have a +PDO and is backed up by evidence. “-PDO means less el niño so it’s snowier” is such a wrong way to view it. You *always* want a +PDO in the East, and hopefully it flips and we get that! -
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That’s interesting – so certainly that January storm contributed, but what do you think was the cause of the record overall snow ratio? The ratio of 16.95:1 here at our site wasn’t a record (2020-2021 was 17.25:1), but it was certainly up there – it took second place and was well above the 13.9:1 average. I wonder if ratios were generally high all around NNE this past winter.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A +PDO coupled with a super Nino is just 97/98. A -PDO could cause deconstructive interference which makes the pattern much more variable.
