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At least it's a more active pattern moving forward.

i agree with webb’s take. i would lean strongly to a pattern similar to last winter. several peer-review studies, such as liang et al. (https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/22/jcli-d-17-0149.1.xml) link a strong indo-pacific warm pool to downstream western us/goa ridging, sometimes even independent of the enso state, especially if it is weak.

Scary for sure....but like all these longer term forecasts to date...highly unlikely to come close to reality!!

Even though it's a crappy year it's still pretty.

Is this for the end of the month event or for Sunday into Monday time frame? What are we seeing? It's still far out, but always nice to see some eye candy. I guess to get us ready for our disappointment over the winter time lol

The body of science is what it is. Citing it doesn't make one an "alarmist." By the way, from the Oxford English Dictionary: And for those who are interested in sea level rise, NASA provides a great site for seeing the projections. Images for one location from one scenario:

Yeah, cloudy with a few breaks of sun has been more like it.

12z GFS

lol so school is now selling shirts that say “The Hereford Zone has Faith in the Flakes” to help pay for his visit and I want to stab myself in my eyeballs

I’ve pointed out another flaw in his opinion above in the past. DT has previously stated a Nina shifting towards neutral during the winter as a good thing and used it to justify a forecast for a snowier winter. But when I ran the numbers there is absolutely no evidence to support this. Actually, a week Nina transitioning to enso neutral produces our absolute worst snowfall results of every enso grouping. That said, the logic he has provided behind why the enso becoming more neutral SHOULD be good is sound. The problem is it hasn’t happened. There must be some lag effect. I’ve theorized that it’s bad because you tend to still get a lack of STJ following a Nina into neutral, but Nina’s can actually be colder and if you lose that you end up with a still dry but warmer pattern. We need an actual Nino with the associated amplified STJ for it to help us.

What's going on with western pac water temps? They've fallen off a cliff in the past week or so. Was there a storm out there that churned the waters up or did some glacier just fall into the ocean? Warm blob is migrating east toward AK too.

it's windier here today than at any point during the "storm"

The PDO. We’ve been stuck in the most hostile PDO regime ever for like 6 years. We’ve set record low monthly values numerous times. Overall it’s been oscillating between moderately low and record low for the whole time. Until that changes and we break out of this current PDO cycle our snowfall luck won’t change much. We will continue to have god awful years with some meh kinda ok when we get lucky years but our baseline bar is going to be very low with this kind of PDO base state. We aren’t just in a -PDO. The longer term PDO cycles can last 15-30 years but within that are shorter term mini cycles and we are in an extreme -PDO cycle within the longer PDO. These are particularly hostile to snow. Yea we’ve had some previous similar cycles and those were also bad for snow. This cycle is similar WRT snowfall and what we would expect if you adjust snowfall downward for the 15-20% of snow climo we’ve lost. So this period is similar to say the extreme -pdo of the 70s and 50s but the snowfall results are about 20% worse because the whole snow climo has deteriorated about 20% regardless of the pdo. What’s troubling is this current extreme PDO is now extending past what is typical. These super negative periods don’t usually last beyond 5 or 6 years. So the were due index is through the roof. But I’ve also seen some speculation that the -PDO is being or at least enhanced by factors linked to longer term climate changes. So I guess the big question…is there another cyclical thing being added on top of the cycle we’re talking about. We should see snowfall improve once the PDO improves. But is the PDO taking on more of a negative base state in general?

GFS could be a decent fall severe weather event with several tornadoes for western and central PA Sunday. Could see a solid line of storms move across here overnight.

Even partly cloudy forecasts are not materializing. I did see mostly sunny and still see that for this area of NJ.

Actually, the forecast was for clouds between 11 am and about 2 PM (at least I think from Fox5 yesterday), however, I see your point. The NWS does say mostly sunny, while their Forecast Discussion does mention a frontal passage early this afternoon...

Dews officially dropping here once again. 66/53 at home.

Agree. We are already seeing some promising signs with a transition to a wetter pattern, which did not happen until Feb last year. Weak east based Nina, early northern snow cover build up, the early signs look pretty good. The PDO is negative, but it’s less negative than last year (-2.4 September 2025 vs -3.5 September 2024).

Ah so because one does not believe it is a significant threat (which most do not) if you fail on the 2nd part of that little test you are a Climate Denier. If that is true than are you as the dictionary says meeting the definition of a "climate alarmist" which is " a person who exaggerates the dangers of climate change and its potential impacts, often by using sensationalized language or promoting policies based on these exaggerated fears. ???

Recognizing cyclical/natural causes for climate change, alone, is insufficient. Climate change can be driven by cyclical/natural and human causes. "Climate change denial" or "climate denial" is a term that was developed to describe a position that rejects human-induced climate change. The Oxford English Dictionary defines climate denial as follows: "Rejection of the idea (or the evidence) that climate change caused by human activity is occurring, or that it represents a significant threat to human and environmental welfare."

Still a bit breezy, more sunshine, 65F. Feels much warmer than yesterday...

Again Don there is of course no such thing as a climate change denial movement - climate of course always changes correct?? That term is an example of what fake news is! Now the magnitude of any impact that man may have had on the many varied climate cycles the earth has gone through is certainly on the table... and some day it's true scientific impact may be quantified. But please keep in mind that I am not the one that chooses to use such dark language....by using the words you choose above you are indeed fear mongering. I know you really believe what you post but I really believe it does more harm than good to paint such a dark future without adequate science and proven models to support such miserable predictions.

surely there will be other windows of opportunity for late season action, but bye and large, its been a dud....and I'm totally cool w/ that.