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Will likely have one last window mid March considering the MJO wave.

DC will reach close to my seasonal total from this storm, and I’ll be watching cirrus float by. This winter has positively sucked outside of 1 great event. Cold and constant misses, the worst

I don’t know man, was expecting a fold by now

Ah thanks, I was looking at the 90 hour frame but yeah huge differences before that and how they arrive at their solutions.

I have already moved on to hoping this is further out to sea to allow the trough to pivot over us. Some areas had a foot of snow in eastern NE with the last trough.

Thread all ready started huh, see ya next winter I hear the Fat Lady singing already

He's a visual of what that pink area the gfs printed out would look like in real life. Could you imagine this on the beltway

It’s tough for me to buy the gfs. Just feels like another blue baller. Winter of blue balls.

AI GooFuS sharper more neg tilted and slightly W of 6z for money panels. Other lesser storm models have not trended against us, so small wins if you want snow. PLENTY of time for this to go gooder/bader, but I'm cool w/ where we are right now.

LOL yeah. Do we trust every model with an offshore solution or the one model on an island showing 30+" for washington dc of all places. Hmm tough decision.

GEFS looks to be doubling down on OP run.

Boxing Day blizzard 12-26-2010 when Euro caught on to GFS and delivered a huge storm. Of course that was for NYC and New Jersey but u get the point. 2-12-2006 JMA schooled other models.

Here is your answer... the First one is the GFS and it is negative (pull) and the second is the CMC which positive (push)

I know how amazing it would be but I don't even agree with this to be honest with you. It has been so so bad even if we get half the snow it's showing and it's more than the other models, it's more of a "blind squirrel" thing to me at this point. A trend is more than one lol.

Yeah only a 35” difference between gfs and any other model. Should be a good enough “gauge” lmao

You would have thought the gefs would have shifted way east but didn't unless the gefs sucks also lol

It's an interesting time-dependent bust study. Relative to the 96-108 hour, if the Euro is right vs the GFS. For us that difference probably doesn't survive modern attention span's failing myelination and memory fixing ( LOL ), but down in the MA... talking the difference between a mere snow day vs regional halting of all civil modes. So for a D4.5 window, one of these models could bust impressively badly. heh. A compromise (mid way) impactor probably is sensible, but like I was describing earlier... this whole situation has a greater than normal short term adjustment potential to it. Whether that happens, remains to be seen, but the reason for that is notable differences, small yet crucial, a creating massive variance down stream - talking about the handling and identification/physical processing thereafter, with the ejection out of the Pacific/general W.

Jan 3rd 2022 as mentioned a little while back. That is the gold standard for reverse busts in the modern era, going from dusting Norfolk -> 8-12" DC proper at the 36-42 hour range. Nothing has come close since.

Most of the area is average to slightly above average. As always Central Park is too low. I'm at 30 inches here -- that's a pretty good snowfall winter and it might not be over.

For you Think 1-2 of snow/sleet and maybe 1” backside. Maybe if the front end thumps 3 but that seems unlikely. Probably a little ZR but temps are marginal for you.

I was thinking this lol.

Obviously this doesn’t matter but it took a track of the slp to the mouth of the Potomac to get the deform band back across our area. All the runs that have a bomb wind up the storm so tight it’s unusual. A track that close usually has precip type issues all the way to the blue ridge and heavy snow to state college.

Whew. USA women’s curling almost got cheesed by the Swiss.

I wouldn’t say huge but last years 7” storm I got here it kept showing 1-3” even like 36hrs before the event

I mean...forget 100 hours, this thing is 2.5 days away.