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Depends on the track

Cmc is a whiff icon is a big rainer wtf is weathernet? So that leaves the euro suite on an epstein island…danger ahead.

2.5" At least there is some moisture in it.

Seems like every winter we go through this several times, trying to determine if the storm is coming north. Time will tell if we get this one. I hope we do. But something tells me we won't. So I guess it's 50, 50 right now.

It depends on the track

Thanks Cape! This is a reasonable explanation.

Running in shorts and a t shirt this morning. Really nice!

Cmc agrees Weathernet Euro AI ensembles Eps Icon to a degree

There's no cold air, it's going to be rain of it happens Hopefully we get the rain, we really need it.

Down in Lake Okoboji Iowa for work. Beautiful office views last evening. I love working outside.

Is Jay's Wintry Mix FB page @Ji? Also if we cant get snow I say lets have a deluge and wash away this glacier and also start the drought busting process.

EPS is leaning west....seems skewed east by a few members.

Skynet Ens

Lost an inch since yesterday, down to 4". The difference between distributed areas (footsteps, etc.) and untouched areas is dramatic.

Barely any precip since the 25th snowstorm ( 0.02" ) so we'll be going on 3 weeks of dryness before our next chance of precip. Drought ongoing .

We will warm later in Feb. agree

and that MU dude wrote it off with his arrogant undertones yesterday....so there's that. With NAO headed pos, my worry is and has been that this thing lifts far enough to wash away my hopes for white gold.

Right, but Euro doesn't warm as much as other guidance, which I disagree with. I don't think blocking will linger as much as it indicates for several reasons I wrote about.

Forget all of this. What I need, and I'm sure everyone agrees, is for all of you mets and knowledgeable posters to focus on what the weather will be like for my snowmobile trip to western New Brunswick next week. That's really what everyone wants to know.

The 0z CMC is pretty much what we want- the 50-50 low is strong and somewhat displaced southward, locking in HP to the north. There is no phase and the developing coastal low is relatively weak, but good enough and the track is close to ideal.

Because that’s after the period of milder weather.

JB is not changing his stance on this potential storm coming north...yet. The Euro at 06z is coming back, but now its north. It was shoved south yesterday. This is why I have not changed my idea on this until I see this get into the west coast. So only long range forecast, that started on the 4th has not changed yet for this potential. If I have to change it I will change it once but not till I see the reality of the feature that arrives Thursday or Friday, not with every flipping model run That does not say I am right. Every one of you who has written this off COULD BE SPOT ON RIGHT!!! You may have had it all the way and I would have been wrong all the way. So I am not saying you are wrong. Nor am I critical of you because you have the opposite stand to mine. I just wonder if you would quit if you were looking at it the way I do. You see, I see what you do. I see all the models too. But the weather is the greatest teacher of what the apostle Paul said:" Those who know what they know don't know what they ought to know". That goes for me. If on Friday I have to eat crow, it means I did not know what I ought to know. But what you ought to know is never obvious, and in a way ,modeling is something obvious.. The consensus is always there. So I see it just like you. I am just showing that perhaps there is merit in taking the time to take a stand and holding it until you are sure. So I am not good enough to be sure that I was wrong, and still think after the work put in I could be right. So until I see what things look like tomorrow and Friday, no changes in this idea that started Feb 4

Eps and AI euro eps are impressive

36 / 24 - warmest day since 1/22 in store with 40 - low 40s for many. Outside of tomorrow and storm track Sun (2/15), 9 or 10 of next 11-12 days may get to or exceed 40s as we enter a warmer period - but still hovering closer to normal more north and east as ridge builds into the eastern 2/3 of the country. Shot at exceeding 50 since January in the 2/17 - 2/20 period. Euro/ GGEM / German have robust QPF / rain - mix ay 06z / snower 00z / GFS/UKMET misses. 2/15-2/16 period to watch otherwise mainly dry. Beyond there in the 2/22 period looks to revert colder - below avg to close the month.

EURO is coldest.