All Activity

64 here, wind S and cloudy. About to call this day a bust.

Mid to long range showing a trough in the east on the models with the NAO and AO dipping . Temps in the 50s ?

I know for my area we statistically do better with weak to moderate el nino, but if we need a strong nino to finally stir up the west pacific warm pool I will take it. I agree that this does not look like 2023 at this point, but its also real early and it would be silly to be too confident in any outcome yet.

Here come the rain showers. 0 for 1 on the week

Not happening but blocking is coming back with cooler temps.

Yes, agree it’s just fantasy bull shit. But I wouldn’t even want that now anyway.

Surprised that the D2 update at 1730z didn't introduce any sort of ENH in Michigan

Sun now. We tan.

A few days ago this week looked 10/10 and then I saw clouds start to creep in on a lot of days. We take the warmth, but the clouds suck

Potential for some strong storms Wednesday evening for southern CT. Unusual timing for this time of year for strong storms but steep lapse rates along the coast with good shear/CAPE and some approaching s/w energy

It's not happening anyways. He needs to start getting used to sweating now.

That was the definition of a sprinkle.

Sun was out for the last hour, and we are at 71. Clouding back up now…but at least we very mild.

Who the hell would want that now? It won’t happen like that being 11 days away, but you could have that crap.

59° overcast Could be worse

66

That aluminum truck body crunching like a pretzel. Yikes. That's why we steel.

Getting pretty close to my sweet spot of temps and humidity. Really nice out right now with a few breaks in the clouds.

That Detroit area guy will be disappointed. This setup is giving nighttime QLCS for his area... Tornado thread definitely looks legit back towards WI / IL / IA though...

Up to 68 with rain incoming.

mild active spring taking away the sting of the dull back end of winter

best climo?

76F/DP 60F Cloudy...if the sun pops out, 80F+ with ease.

Bit of an appetizer ahead of likely busy next few days Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Iowa into western...central...and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131603Z - 131730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some hail (possibly over 1 inch in diameter) may occur with gradually intensifying storms over the next few hours. It is unclear if these storms will pose the greatest severe risk this afternoon, or if the greater risk will occur with later storms. DISCUSSION...850 mb troughing is underway across the Plains states into the Midwest, with 15Z mesoanalysis showing the northeasterly terminus of a LLJ currently positioned along the IA/IL/MO border. Here, an 850 mb Td gradient exists, with modest WAA likely supporting the gradual intensification of elevated convection within this regime. The 12Z ILX observed sounding and 15Z mesoanalysis depicts 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8-8.5 C/km range, contributing to MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. These storms are encroaching on a region of stronger 500 mb southwesterly flow, driven by a departing upper trough over the eastern U.S., which is resulting in 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear ahead of the storms. If storms continue to intensify, it is plausible that at a hail threat may materialize over the next few hours, with some stones potentially exceeding 1 inch in diameter. Short-range high resolution ensemble guidance is providing mixed signals regarding the evolution of this convection. Some deterministic CAMS show that the ongoing storms eventually consolidate and develop into stronger supercell structures in northern IL by afternoon. Other guidance members depict the ongoing storms oscillating in intensity, while stronger storms develop later. As such, there is an appreciable degree of uncertainty as to the evolution of the longer term severe threat with these WAA storms. All this being said, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 40829153 41349115 41809076 42269021 42318942 42178872 41918839 41478835 41028850 40608866 40238895 40058932 39988999 40039043 40249121 40829153 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN