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We had Graupel here in Spring Twp.

Probably means nothing, but this initial slug has a lot of ice pellet reports

Pingers here, too!

I updated my 3PM comment with an apology explanation of ground truth knowledge aforehand of a product issuance.

The HRRR I think is out to lunch. I was curious to see what the soundings looked like in the vicinity of the precip on the HRRR...did see some moistening of the profile but there is a quite a bit of dry air to overcome and being on the northern fringes of the precip shield...don't think that's going to do it. But maybe portions of Fairfield county are clipped with some better lvl moisture

That's the Average December Snowfall 40 Year's ago.

Gotcha...yes. We definitely need to see this

Yep, and call it white Friday

I'll wait for more consistency and when we get closer in if its still there on the EPS to get more intrigued, At least going forward, It doesn't look to be garbage.

No, I expect some Ying and yang that far out but what I’m trying to tell Wolfie and others is that I want to see consistency in a decent pacific. So let’s see this 12 Z run hang on and either stay flat or improve as we go forward in tim. That 12z EPS depicts a way better pacific. You now have a more classic negative EPO Ridge, which dumps cold air into the plains and out west, but that allows it to be #1 a very sharp cold blast and #2 would eventually spill east after stem winder. I think it’s still points to something after the first week, that hasn’t changed. I just want to see those types of improvements continue, and also it’s possible we squeeze in something over the interior perhaps around December 1.

HRRR was awful on the last event here on 11/16, As a matter of fact, Its probably 90% of the time awful.

I'm well. I hope you're doing well. Hopefully, this coming winter will produce a lot of snowy days. It would be nice to turn back the clock to the kind of winters that made this site grow.

This looks like an I-80 special to me. C-2.5" based on elevation with the brunt in PA. The shortwave is still potent enough to set off convection in IL and IN. Banding is often a wild card with these.

The NWS predicted high was 50. Shame on you NWS. I have topped out at 41. .03" rain

The inconsistency may not be a terrible thing though. Sometimes inconsistency can be a signal that things are being shaken up and will change. But I think if we are to see things change it will be more towards mid December than early. I haven't paid attention much to the stratosphere stuff lately but what brooklynwx posted earlier was nice to see. Stratospheric warmings or a coupled stratosphere don't necessarily mean anything for us (this could just as easily have a greater impact on Europe depending on configuration/evolution) but getting something like this earlier in the season could be hue for us. I feel like some of the more recent, stronger episodes happened second half of winter, so by the time the lower troposphere felt the impacts, it was too late for us

18z HRRR says coating for CT coast tomorrow am. Sell? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

What are temps aloft as I’ve been steadily falling since 12 noon and now 47 with a dp of 23

Thanks Don. How have you been?

WAA sleet/graupel/snow junk missed me to the south. Tonight’s R/S line looks like it will stay to the north of Allentown. At least this is happening in November and not January when cold air will be more abundant.

Yikes. You took a spill?

Reinstall in Tol?

I'm with you. I think there will be a decent swath of accumulating snow overnight tonight. I just personally think the 12z HRRR was too "wet" into the cold/dry air and a little too far north with the axis. It also keeps measurable precipitation going further east into NYS and CT. That might be suspect based on other guidance drying things out quicker. The 18z is a little drier and maybe a hair south of 12z. I think it has been incrementally shifting towards model consensus. The 18z RRFS also looks a touch drier and more reasonable to me. The GFS and CMC have likely been too far south and late to correct. The best bet for accumulating snows looks to be in PA right now. But we've seen cases before where banding unexpectedly extended accumulating snows eastward as a shortwave decayed into the residual cold of a longwave trof. The radar will be interesting late tonight.

Can we actually get BN heights across the entire CONUS anymore?

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp anomalies vs prior run in E US Dec 1-7: slightly cooler NE US but still mild overall Mid-Atlantic and especially SE/warmest week of Dec Dec 8-14: NE cooled slightly from slightly AN to NN but SE ~same Dec 15-21: slightly warmer SE (was NN); ~same NE Dec22-28: slightly warmer but still coldest week of Dec

Heavy sleet near Denver, Pa