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I enjoy it but its more so just checking things. As long as you dont get emotionally invested in every model its fine. It used to piss me off seeing the models changing every run and "being fringed". Now its like meh just less to shovel.

This storm looking primed for a NW trend IMO. Also, @SnowenOutThere should make his own Avengers. Young ones, assemble!

18z ICON likely would've been a foot plus from I-70 south if it ran further.

I cant get over how they spit out amounts and predictions 5 days in advance as IMO its a joke,,,,,,here is what a quick search said for my area Sunday and Sunday nite = Sunday Day -Watching a potential winter storm. Cloudy with snow. High 12F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected. Sunday Night 11° Watching a potential winter storm. Occasional snow showers. Low 11F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

I mean..sounds like what we have known. Initial Thump of snow then a mix. Nothing new

The moms at the bus stop this afternoon were giving it the old "They're saying maybe we get 4" maybe we get 24! They're leaving themselves a loooooot of wiggle room...really hedging their bets!" Fuck's sake...

Man I miss his posts…. .

Putting this in banter (because it's stupid) but we are about to witness the Most Important UKMET Run of All Time

I got to know all the DC Tv Mets and Bob was the most distant and not a snow lover. Gary Shore, Doug Hill Topper Shutt Tony Pann Tom Kieran. Clay Anderson and others mostly liked snow and were conversant

This is the stage in tracking where initial expectations can be set. If you live north of Va line your expectation should be all snow and possibly heavy amounts. For most of NC chances are high you mix at some point so determining timing, degree of mixing, and if you go all the way to ZR will be critical. For SC and Georgia this looks like a ZR storm. Maybe the upstate can score on the initial WAA or the wedge is cold enough for sleet. Worried about further north trends with thermals. I’ve seen models throw out 6-8 hour thumps of snow just for NAM to come in and cut that time in a third. Something to watch. Those are my thoughts at this point

Posting this for our upper Delmarva, northern MD folks. The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range.

This genuinely gives me chills. I'm such a sicko

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

@Solution Man‘s analogy still holds strong, lotta young ones.

9” by 1 pm Sunday in Baltimore on the ICON lol. What a run

NWS grid forecast for DC has “snow” at 80% Saturday night and Sunday… don’t know the last time I’ve seen such a high pop this far out.

the media pressure will be too much or model agreement will have to be stupendous and overwheelming once the GFS comes on board. I am concerned with the severe cold afterwards not the amounts of precip. You have an entire generation of drivers that have never driven on powdery snow that is compacted into 4 inches of solid ice with no salt to melt as temps in the single digits. The region better keep the truck drivers off the interstates or we all see 100 car pileups. As an old timer, this situation with the cold though not as severe as 1994 reminds of one thing friends Just look at where everything is lined up in this weather channel video see below The 1994 ice storm (specifically the January 7–8 event) effectively paralyzed the Lehigh Valley, turning routine travel and daily activities into significant hazards. Transportation Impacts Road Closures and Accidents: Freezing rain transformed roads into "ice skating rinks," leading to hundreds of accidents across southeastern Pennsylvania. A notable 16-vehicle pileup occurred on westbound Interstate 78 in Lower Saucon Township due to the sudden icing. Stranded Vehicles: Many motorists were forced to abandon cars on snow- and ice-covered highways. Public transit, including some Greyhound bus services, was suspended, leaving travelers stranded at terminals. Public Transit Standstill: Regional transit systems like SEPTA and Amtrak faced major delays or complete shutdowns, with some services taking nearly a week to return to normal. Airport Disruptions: Lehigh Valley International Airport (then ABE) and other regional hubs like Philadelphia International faced multi-day closures due to icy runways. Impacts on Daily Life Widespread Power Outages: Heavy ice accumulation—up to 1 inch—downed thousands of trees and utility lines. Approximately 400,000 to 590,000 customers in the broader region lost power, with many remaining in the dark for over a week. School and Business Closures: Schools across the Lehigh Valley were closed for multiple days. In some instances, schools that attempted to open had to send students home early as conditions worsened, leading to buses becoming stranded on rural roads. Supply Shortages: Panic buying led to severe shortages of staple items; locals reported that "not a loaf of bread" could be found in some city stores. Hardware stores quickly sold out of generators, kerosene, and salt. Hazardous Conditions: Falling tree limbs and "snapping" sounds like gunshots were common as the weight of the ice became too great for trees to bear. Walking outdoors became extremely dangerous due to the thick coating of ice on sidewalks. Infrastructure Failures: The extreme cold and heavy precipitation during this period contributed to the eventual collapse of the Corporate Plaza building in Allentown due to a massive sinkhole

I have a flight to a conference in Vegas on the morning of February 23. Doesn't really apply to this discussion...just thought I'd mention it.

Was just going to post this. HP was slightly weaker this run. ICON is heavy snow at 9 degrees out this way. Amazing run.

That's when Machester-by-the-Sea had the weenie OES 23"?

Storm is still going at this point too

Saving 0s and 1s for Minesweeper games in the off hours. That's just science.

Today we start to cross the HR120 (D5) threshold. Should see the guidance really tighten up over the next 24 hours. Would caution folks here that might result in some extreme solutions getting eliminated and thus, reducing a mean snowfall here or there. That does not mean this is "trending towards a bust", but rather just narrowing towards a better forecast.

Hey all, I'm here to add to the barrage of teenagers (HS, I'm roughly between @bncho and @Nomz). Been heavily lurking for about a year but I'm so hyped for this storm I finally decided to post. My APUSH teacher had some sage advice for my class today that I'll share here: "don't get too excited, the energy warms up the atmosphere." lol. Let's reel this one in!

Now that there is a consensus of a storm this weekend, models are all going to differ up until gametime on how much of the southern vort get absorbed. Gonna affect how north or south it goes. Even if every model shows they all fully absorb it, it only matters what happens at gametime and we won't have that answer any sooner. Time for me to stop getting caught up in every different model and run. Too tiring.