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I believe an all-time of 104 is in jeopardy in Greensboro either JULY 3rd or the 4th, we shall see- I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.

some meaning, each and every one of us

I think it IS pretty good right now for the most part. But I also think as the globe warms it will rise. It's really a function of lapse rates and a 30C surface is usually good enough to guarantee conditional instability for the time. But this ties back to my other post that a robust +IOD and +ENSO circulation could still cap it.

I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.

Would be really nice to be able to lock in a heavy precip event, but there is just too much uncertainty with position of the front, timing of waves, and overall strength of the system. My dream heavy rain scenario is convection along (or just behind) the front later Friday, overrunning showers and storms Friday night, and more elevated convection Saturday with the front hanging around and a shortwave.

mm... it was like this in it's 00z run, too. Maybe not quite as extreme, but it's an east outlier with the 500 mb total placement of key construct when comparing pretty much everything else. "Some" would probably be wise to bear that in mind ... that, and that fact that this model - as far as we can tell - is actually an ICON of shitty forecasting technology

Gorgeous afternoon so far. Sitting outside with dog, slight breeze watching planes on approach to Newark Airport. Really don't want to go to work

mmm one gets the distinct impression that model's attempting to limit or abolish heavy rain in the foreground, then, limiting any heat E of the Hudson ... leaving only the iffy hit or miss convection signal - which will be cleverly biased on the latter side of that chance.

For heat enthusiasts ...this is your problem for next week

speaking of GFS...lets hope it verifies next week. We ride the MCS train

Hopefully we have a decent weekend for the 4th, hot summer time temperatures would be acceptable. Certainly looks warm next week. Should be a good week to spend some time in the pool.

ICON gone wild next week.. some will be happy lol

Right on cue, rainfall looks to be on the increase as we near the end of June and head into early to mid July. Higher dew points, tropical connections, cold fronts and El Nino. https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/2070165098128142678 The rain signal picking up for portions of the Southeast as we move into July.

heh 12z GFS is no where near the NAM's idea. Having seen that...I gotta lean on the NAM being the NAM N-W bias at 60 hours. If this were circa November 20th and we were in the midst of a cool snap anyway whether there's anything on the charts or not ... Ineedelectroshock posters of the forum would be presently representing their razor sharp objective restraint by going hee-haw hee-haw galloot galloot galloot over this NAM's 6-10" warning snow event, having fully considered and judiciously constrained their emotions over the matter .... Maybe the Euro or some other model supports.

This weeks rainfall was helpful as generally 1-2.5” fell across the exceptional drought area though we would need to see repeated systems do the same to see any real progress. Sadly looks to be going back into the fryer this coming week with no signs of additional widespread rains

That’s a good question. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (exponentially) but i’d think it also takes more to actually wring it out. The warmer SSTs certainly help with that. Intuitively i think the “magic number” would have to go up as it warms.

Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”?

Upper 30's/40's this morning again. Highs around 70 today. Missed out on any rain yesterday as it dried up before reaching town. Areas to my W picked up 0.50-2" where the rain slowly moved through before dissipating.

That is the question! I hope we can do it but I am still on the fence about whether it happens or not.

Yeah that is exactly what I was getting at. I am not sure if +30C is a magic number per say, as strong enough subsidence from a +IOD and +ENSO circulation might be able to keep a lid on it. But I do think the general idea is correct that if the surface is warm enough you will still get storm activity and forcing from that area.

This is all true but in theory, if you get much warmer SSTs to the east, it can generate conditions suppress convection to the west regardless if the SSTs to the west are “warm enough” for convection. It likely just takes stronger +ENSO conditions than before to achieve. I’m increasingly convinced we will actually achieve this (suppressed MC) with this event.

I have an irrational fascination with floods. Not sure why...as it's morally ambiguous to gawk. But they're an amazingly powerful force - too much so perhaps to resist. A truly, truly awesome specter to behold, when even a small brook swells to a 1:500 year return rate raging Amazonian rival... to the point where a Town Hall's annexed church's steeple has a cat clinging to it for life. When a orbital survey of the land clearly suggests it was always some sort of alluvial plain - like the Mississippi Valley, 1993 say... Gee, let's construct a civility there! weee When the Louisiana Purchase took place ... the parting gift to the purchasers ( in this case, the U.S. Gubberment ... why - ) was a bit of advice by the retreating French: "Attempt no city there". But "Americaaa FUCK YEAH!" thought otherwise I suppose.

June 25 2003: Heavy rain falls across central Minnesota. Elk River picks up 8.19 inches. 4.36 inches fall in 4 hours in Maplewood, and there are reports of street flooding in St. Paul. Strong winds topple trees in Richfield. 1950: Flooding hits Warroad. Strong winds accompany waters that rose 4 feet in 10 minutes. For Thursday, June 25, 2026 1749 - A general fast was called on account of drought in Massachusetts. It was the year of the famous dry spring in which fields and villages burned. (David Ludlum) 1925 - The mercury hit 101 degrees at Portland, OR, their earliest 100 degree reading of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1953 - The temperature at Anchorage soared to 86 degrees, their hottest reading of record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Miami, FL, 107 degrees at Medford, OR, and 111 degrees at Redding CA were new records for the date. It was the third of six straight days of record heat for Miami. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Austin, and gusts to 75 mph at Tulsa OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 100 degrees at Erie, PA, and 104 degrees at Cleveland OH established all- time records for those two locations. Highs of 101 degrees at Flint, MI, 105 degrees at Chicago, IL, and 106 degrees at Fort Wayne, IN, equaled all-time records. Thunderstorms in Idaho produced wind gusts to 100 mph west of Bliss and north of Crouch, injuring 29 persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Tropical depression Allison, the remnants of what was earlier Cosme (a hurricane over the Pacific Ocean which dissipated as it crossed northern Mexico), began to spread heavy rain into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 25 Thu Battle of the Little Bighorn 25 Thu Korean War 25 Thu National Work From Home Day 25 Thu Bourdain Day 25 Thu Global Beatles Day 25 Thu National Handshake Day 25 Thu Ashura 25 Thu Backyard Safety Check Day 25 Thu Goats Cheese Day 25 Thu International Day of the Seafarer 25 Thu National Camp Counts Day 25 Thu National Catfish Day 25 Thu National Croatian Wine Day 25 Thu National Leon Day 25 Thu National Olaplex Day 25 Thu National Strawberry Parfait Day 25 Thu World Vitiligo Day