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Yep. So far, there are no seasonal forecasts that are undeniable furnace forecasts in the east, save maybe for NNE. But NNE can still get lots of snow with AN+ temps.

Plant corn, get corn. Congrats

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter. This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo

Slight adjustments with slight and marginal Risks for today and tomorrow today marginal and slight moved more south westward to accommodate more of north and northwestern parts of Tennessee tomorrow the majority of Tennessee is under a marginal risk with a slight risk for Cumberland plateau and also (parts of?) East Tennessee .

Newton IL has a tornado, maybe in town

WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall and seems to indicate some areas could see 2+ inches of rain. "Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate a large zone of 30-50% probs for >2" across the aforementioned area above with deterministic outputs closer to 2-3.5" into parts of Southern New England. The 00z HREF (only covers through 00Z 6/23) and 00Z REFS indicate 30-60% neighborhood probabilities for at least 2" per 6-hrs from D.C. to NYC and would be enough for some urban flash flooding concerns."

Why can't it just rain lol

These storms are just scraping by to my north and offshore..the season of haves and have nots has just begun. Maybe we can squeak out another quick pop up downpour or two like yesterday!

2 tornado reports in Illinois

What time frame we looking at the rain starting?

How did the JMA initialize the current Nino (I know it has a west or central-based configuration in the Winter)?

Shirtless, pantless and many packs of dude wipes on standby!

18z NAM looks like shit.

Looks 2009-10ish. Interesting both jamstec and cansips are far from a warm winter.

Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16.

Very lucky that I will make it to July with hardly any heat this year!

Depending on instability there's a definite tornado threat here

You were desperate for rain less than a month ago. Be glad it's not 100.

Would absolutely trade you.

64F/ .16"

We love violence

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9 (1.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Nam is 1 to 3" all in less than 6 hours