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BTW @NorthArlington101 Euro has the Monday storm with a significant jump northward to get snow flurries close to the DC metro area. The 12z CMC also had a more consolidated precap field as well FWIW.

How you can predict total monthly snowfall on December 6th is beyond me............

I'm inclined to agree, although as we get towards the middle of December, suppression becomes more and more likely form a climo standpoint

Looking at the bottom image (and from talking to @brooklynwx99 earlier) we need to have that low of Alaska to retrograde off the coast more (which it has been doing in more recent runs) in order to pump up the PNA and get more amplitude for our shortwave(s). Would be fun to have a rather strong storm pop into existence within a couple days of the event which isn't impossible given how the right pieces are all there.

Should I stay or should I go?

Another Virginia system

first of all you know for a fact I am not gloom and doom all the time as we have agreed many times on here. Secondly the only guidance I can believe right now is what is being produced as of today - of course with borderline temps shown today can trend colder in coming days. And of course our time is probably coming as seasonal trends begin to favor more frozen solutions as we get deeper into the winter season.

Cold dry warm wet. If we don't have HP the north then Dec 12 will be rain for the city. If we do it'll suppress south to Virginia. NYC metro is a really unlucky spot now for snow. Too south for the marginal/interior tracks, too north for the supressively cold tracks. Only way to get snow now is with benchmark tracks, which not even the fantasy GFS is showing. Likely <3" December---> low snow winter #4 of the 2020s.

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Definitely but we will be playing with more cold air this time.

So you are believing the guidance as it is on right now ? We are in phase 8. Some of you are gloom and doom all the time. How many times have the models showed nothing until it got closer ? Phase 8 promotes storming. Our time is coming

That was a crazy intense squall

Steady snow now, probably won't last long.

Pleasant Mountain opened today. Top to bottom skiing, albeit only on 4 trails. Earliest opening in quite some time for them.

New roof install this coming week. Delaying a significant event to next weekend is fine with me.

US snowcover as of Dec 5th is way higher now than it was in ‘16 (slightly BN) and even moreso vs ‘22 (MB).

Will it rain or will it snow…?

You young people and your great photography !! Now lemme tell ye how it was during blizzard of.66. We took the grainy black and white pictures then mailed a roll of film in and got it back in a week and passed the pictures around

12Z GEFS has the signal as well. Nice to see heights building out west which is why we are seeing this storminess popping up around that timeframe 12th/13th.

Wednesday's 3 inches makes 10 times in the last 45 years that Augusta County has received winter events on December 5!!!!!! The others: 2018 - 1.5" snow, 2009 - 6" snow, 2007 - .8" snow, 2005 3.0", 2003 - 6.5", 2002- 5", 1996 3.0", 1985 .50", 1984 - 1 " sleet

Agreed.. I’m used to seeing those mainly in the northeast when I still lived in CT. This one could surprise a few folks around mine and Chills area.

Yup, but pretty uncommon to see it actually verify at our latitude.

Lt sn. 18F. Looks and feels like January Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Got another 0.3” from last nights activities to bring final to 2.1”

Nice burst now...festive flakes. Set up my WS4000 simulator with Christmas music to enhance the mood.