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This stuff is complex enough, and the data incomplete enough, that I can't imagine anyone coming to a conclusion with any degree of confidence. I mean - we're talking about somehow mapping the details of the bedrock *beneath a glacier* no less, and trying to analyze the freeze-thaw cycles (if they existed in that location, under the glacier) over the past N years to determine if CC contributed to extra loosening that wouldn't have occurred otherwise without CC. That seems like an impossible task. The best we could do I think is to somehow measure the amount of these over time and see what is the trend. This is difficult of course due to the nature of the remoteness of the areas we're talking about; it would require a lot of satellite data details.

66/ .22"

After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's.

After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's.

Yes, look at different radar and elevations, there is more than one circulation present.

Great storm, 1983 was great too, shame you weren't born yet.

still 66/66 and raining

Gotta love it. 7/10 split

Please pin this thread @buckeyefan1 and unpin the Spring/Summer thread. Thank you Michelle!

Yep, for the first time that looks like a real nascent eyewall. It is not just low topped convection. If that wraps up this will obviously strengthen quicker. It is very obvious now though that the system is in a strengthening phase.

Wow, look at that strong mesovortex wrap up at the tail end of the intensifying core band. Fascinating stuff watching this unfold on radar.

Severe chances dropped for tomorrow

Yes, like an ERC when it finishes and the sig intensification can occur again, Just the dry slot gap N and E makes this process less likely here.

2016 was amazing 31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

Yea prolonged cold will most likely not going to happen especially in the first half of winter. Im fine with that. Dont want suppression depression

Lightning in the core, convection rotating upshear.

Eff them.

At least we’ll Be mowing in December when it finally rains.

Recon finally starting to see winds come up, correlating with a flare up over center and increased radar velocities. The strengthening has begun

Met fall...we made it! Now if we can get the weather to cooperate. 74/F/DP 73F at 9am.

When one's narrative is destroyed by the facts, some accept reality. Others, however, resort to conspiracy theories.

We are finally seeing a blowup of very deep convection near the center over the last 30 minutes.

The odd reason is two things, hype for clicks/like, and as I have said before, esp. when it comes to satellite and cold clouds tops, some just "see at the trees w/o seeing the forest." The question you have to ask, is that developing deep convection banded or showing twist, esp near the center? If not, that means you have to temper your expectations at first. Many times a big blow up of convection collapses almost as fast, as one example, and irregular blobs of convection for a TC are not conducive to RI. One large coherent blob is ok, esp. if it persists, b/c that often is a sign of a developing CDO.

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

You know, interestingly, in the past thirty or so minutes since posting that, the old inner circulation or nascent core is getting absorbed by a strong band that is intensifying. That is what you want to see if you want strengthening, but it needs to wrap around to become a proto-eyewall feature. At any rate, such a strong band should be resulting in a significant expansion of convection / cold cloud burst on satellite soon.