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I did hear on channel 16 weather that this was the coldest May to date on record for northern PA. .

Mostly cloudy today with highs not too far from average near 70 degrees. Some rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm late tonight ending toward rush hour tomorrow. We fall back to below normal temperatures both tomorrow and Friday before a big warm up with temperatures across the county reaching around 80 degrees on Saturday and the mid to upper 80’s on Sunday and Monday. Next Tuesday should be the hottest day with temperatures especially in lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We will get cooler again by the middle of next week.

Mostly cloudy today with highs not too far from average near 70 degrees. Some rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm late tonight ending toward rush hour tomorrow. We fall back to below normal temperatures both tomorrow and Friday before a big warm up with temperatures across the county reaching around 80 degrees on Saturday and the mid to upper 80’s on Sunday and Monday. Next Tuesday should be the hottest day with temperatures especially in lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We will get cooler again by the middle of next week.

Per radar estimates some areas in the exceptional drought north of Jacksonville got 4-7”+ from this system too but like you said a large area of 1-3” was seen across that area south of you in the worst of the worst drought area

Man, the ERA 5 dataset doesn't have velocity potential...I hate that. @bluewave Do you know of any resources to plot VP?

Both.

Min 35° Maybe the last of the 30s here? Climo says no, but there’s none in the extended currently. I’m sure we’ll sneak some upper 30s in somewhere even if it’s early June. Euro is pushing 100° in Philly for a couple of days next week.

Big Euro and AI upgrade. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/ifs-cycle-50r1-aifsv2-live A significant upgrade to ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), Cycle 50r1, has gone live today (12 May 2026) alongside an update to the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS v2). Cycle 50r1 introduces a more consistent and integrated approach to forecasting the atmosphere’s interactions with the ocean through fully coupled data assimilation, and improvements to known issues with accurately forecasting sudden, heavy, localised rain. It also brings more advanced representation of waves and sea ice. The update to the AIFS introduces, among other features, ECMWF’s first data-driven wave and snow cover forecasts. Florian Pappenberger, Director-General of ECMWF, said: “This is an important upgrade for ECMWF and for everyone who relies on our forecasts. IFS Cycle 50r1 strengthens our physics-based forecasting system, including through fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice assimilation and new ocean and sea-ice capabilities. "With AIFS v2, we are expanding its performance, bringing a new generation of AI forecasting into operation, building on ECMWF’s technical competence, operational expertise and data infrastructure. Together, these advances reflect ECMWF’s commitment to innovation and close co-development with our Member and Co-operating States in delivering better forecasts, increasing the value to society.” Matthieu Chevallier, ECMWF’s Head of Forecast Evaluation, added: “The updates to these systems, being formally announced today, will together provide numerous benefits to users of our forecasts. Alongside the scientific and technical advances in coupled modelling and data assimilation, and innovation with AI techniques, we have responded to users’ feedback, for example, with new products. We look forward to hearing their reaction to the quality and accuracy of our forecasts, and on how it impacts their applications.” Forecasting improvements One of the most significant changes to the IFS introduced with Cycle 50r1 is a better representation of convective precipitation, which causes heavy rainfall and violent thunderstorms but is hard to predict because it occurs at smaller scales. The revised convection and cloud-microphysics scheme will reduce excessive stationary rainfall and, instead, represent more realistically how it moves from the ocean across the land. IFS users will also see the introduction of the new NEMO4-SI³ ocean and sea-ice model, bringing substantial improvements in forecasts and analysis over the marine areas, as well as over 40 new ocean and sea ice-related variables. Key improvements include a more accurate representation of how sea ice affects the power of waves and the interactions between waves and ocean currents, often at play in rougher seas. Other improvements for IFS include improved tropical upper-air temperature and wind forecasts, and improvements to temperature and humidity forecasts around the tropopause. For the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), one of two Copernicus services operated by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission, the IFS update will enhance the atmospheric composition and greenhouse gas forecasts. The improvements range from the assimilated observations to aerosols and reactive gases, as well as enhanced input data on human-driven emissions. For AIFS, both the Single and Ensemble versions of the system are being upgraded to version two, with each introducing a new wave component. Eleven wave-related variables are being made available to users, enabling predictions, for example, of when we will experience rougher seas. In addition, the AIFS Single v2 wave component shows substantial improvement in the medium-range skill of wave forecasts compared to the physical model, IFS Cycle 50r1. ECMWF’s first data-driven snow cover forecasts are also being introduced with this upgrade. Again, the AIFS Single v2 forecasts show improved performance compared to IFS Cycle 50r1 forecasts, with the predicted snow cover fraction closer to observations. Victoria Bennett, ECMWF's Head of User Services Section, said: “These new cycles bring improvements to the models and introduce new products that address requests from users. In addition, with IFS, we have now removed the duplication between the old “HRES” single forecast and the Ensemble control and introduced other minor technical updates to reduce complexity. We have worked closely with users during the testing period, and with their positive feedback, we are excited to be making the switch.” All the upgrades to our systems are live with immediate effect.

Almost certain that it is. But implementing it is a different beast. Various academic institutions have the run the WRF real-time, but even that is difficult to keep up without dedicated staff.

Point and click for NWS is now at 93 for Monday and Tuesday. That’s the only place I see temps that high. Would be crazy, not sure I believe that at this point. It’s tough enough to hit 93 in mid July let alone mid-May.

51 degrees this morning. No rain overnight. Have a black cloud shadowing my house. I guess we will see how much rain we can pick up off of the thunderstorms today.

Low of 54. A few seasonable spring days ahead before the heat starts to build. Hopefully we can score some decent rains this evening.

I don’t see another chance for widespread rain until the 8-9 day timeframe which would ensure another 2+ week stretch here without measurable rain. After finishing April with well under 1” of rain (our 4th time in last 8 months) we will be sitting under 1” going into the last week of May! While I have certainly enjoyed the cooler weather, that pattern change in central NC did absolutely nothing to alleviate drought conditions here.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 335 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-140745- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 335 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few thunderstorms with isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Our lawn looks worse then usual but that's par for the course. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Looking like a Stein job here in E CT, only .10-15” the next few days

Nice pattern coming up Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Monday Sunny, with a high near 90. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.

Did my second mowing at Pit2 lastnight and discovered the lawn really looks crappy. It had always been pretty darn good looking, so I'm not sure what happened to it over the last 6 months. Biggest problem is there's suddenly a bunch of dandelions. A secondary concern is other types of things (not crabgrass) that' appearing. What do you recommend for getting rid of at least the dandelions? I cold probably put down some seed as well. I need to do things in the right order. Help!

I mentioned this in the Central PA forum when I got blasted for complaining about the cold spells. The huge swings in temps are annoying.

Nam had central NJ getting up to 50 inches the day before the storm.

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The RONI reached El Niño status on the daily yesterday, almost +0.6C. The traditional ONI was +1.0C

Any rain is good. And even the clouds, alone, keeping down temps and thus evaporation is beneficial. But the more beneficial rains of the last few days been much more the case further S in S GA in a places like Alma, and Valdosta, as well as in N FL places like Gainesville and especially TLH. I got a very nice 1.2” on 5/2, but only ~0.25” since due to all of the rain periods since being only a couple of hundredths at a time.

Don’t say i didn’t warn you.