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GGEM looks way way east. With the low-level dry air on western side eating away at precip bands , WNE probably gets a decent weekend!

UKIE slingshots it way west towards coast again. Euro to follow?

1.67" for the event. Solid soaking. The trees and grass are loving it here in the lowlands. I'm personally loving these temperatures! Slept like a bear the last few nights with the windows half opened.

After two weeks if i had any doubt that I couldn't stand Bears and Packers fans all doubt has been removed...yeesh move the f on already you lost

Well I have a hard time seeing Euro AI and ensembles off by 300 miles this close in, but we shall see. I have a lot of people asking me about the weekend, and it's definitely a higher stakes deal. If the euro ai/ensembles and the euro op and ensembles have some sort of consistency at 12z...I would feel more confident in a higher impact especially near the coast. I do expect a little shuffling as usually the case this far out....but I mean no wild swings.

I was thinking the same thing that big time underperformer here once again by what everything was showing us. It sucks big time. So far today it hasn't been to bad but currently have .24" in the gauge.

You didn’t if you missed the ones about reverse psychology yet still quoted those posts

i didn't miss any posts did you miss some of yours ? maybe you should be trying harder to keep up

A place like Taunton , MA is looking at rain from Friday afternoon thru Monday . Couple that with power out, recipe for a divorce

Yep wash, rinse, repeat. Well we cannot do that because there is not enough water for it lol.

I guess you missed all the posts last night ? Try and keep up

Wettest month in ABQ since July 2015. Outside chance we set the record for rain for at least the modern measurement site by month end, something like 4.06". We're at 2.75"+ and plenty more rain is forecast by the end of the month. 1940 and 1997 were the two prior wettest September El Nino months locally, but we've surpassed both. New Mexico is the land of ENSO, so good to see at least the wet signal now showing up robustly. That said, the wettest Septembers here are often East El Nino setups or Modoki La Nina setups, where E Pac is > W Pac for water temp anomalies at the equator. Sept itself is not correlated strongly for precip to 3.4, so several of the top wet months here are La Ninas.

They are banned at my kid’s school.

Back and forth we go.

Jma is west of 00z lmao yeah I'm going put the phone down and do some yard work with all this variability, no point in wasting brain cells yet when models are all over the place still

not as much fun as bumping this one:

I think everyone knows where this winter stands. It'll be above average temperatures, especially in December and it is unlikely we get any real sustained periods of frigid temps, save our conception of how the atmosphere behaves in a strong el nino being wrong. It's also a good bet we will have favorable storm tracks and a very active subtropical jet stream to bring in above average precip. That is all we can really say. We can then formulate that this season will be a boom or bust depending on if we get lucky with a shot of cold air at the right time, but we can't speculate on any details of that responsibly. Anything else is extrapolating or doesn't have much climatological backing. That's it. We now just have to wait through at least October, if not November/December, to watch how the atmosphere couples with the oceans.

Eastern areas kinda look like more precip though but hard to tell.

Comparing the 00z to 12zgefs, looking at total precip is nearly identical all the way to NYC from the image I can see not fully zoomed in..

I’ll be inside the casino

Folks complain when there is no weather and complain when there is weather to talk about lol. It's almost as if every single weather phenomenon has to be extreme or bust. Everything is meh, meh, meh unless there are 20 tornadoes, trees get blown down all over, snow accumulations exceed 2 feet, winds gust above 60, or half the region is under water.

Suddenly the GFS is now correct I see from the usual suspects . Those posts will be fun to bump Saturday in a driving wind and rain storm regionally

51/43°F, Fall has arrived, Looks like another night in the 30's on tap, Had 4 in the last 10 days.

TMEH oh man