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Ray, FFS relax and just enjoy how this unfolds.

Average depth in a wind sheltered area. The forest in my backyard here helps slow ne and e winds.

That's the place to be with this storm

My P&C forecast is 12-20 lmao. LFG!

New BOX maps. The 1 in 10 map is absolutely bananas for south shore MA. Especially western plymouth County.

Don’t really have the internet bandwidth to view model runs here, but does it still look like 1:40pm landing at JFK is doable plus 4-5pm driving arrival in central NJ?

Haven't been there since 2019 or so. Still have the place in Maine (likely for just 1-2 more years) and have a new Pit in Mattapoisett on the south coast.

That’s exactly what’s gonna happen unfortunately… .

If the GFS verified verbatim there would probably be 60-70 mph wind gusts along the NJ coast, when you get pressure falls that rapidly the wind tends to overperform the usual gradient rules which might suggest 40-50. There could easily be 30 inches of snow in parts of central NJ also (if there is 100% verification). I would expect that to taper off to 15" by Allentown to n/c MD, so PHL around 24". What is the all-time record snow (storm total) for PHL or any other location in the vicinity? I would be grateful if anyone could post a top ten, partly for comparison and then I could look at analogues (I know there's an analogue list available but they tend to cut those off after a lot of historic 100-150 year storms, for which there are still maps available). I can see some similarity in the track evolution of this with the Blizzard of March 1888 but the heaviest snow with this could fall earlier in the cycle (meaning NJ instead of CT).

I hate to.say it but the valley might get shadowed a bit

That depiction says it all: any of the variance is in E/W placement. No northern opportunity depicted.

Thank goodness! I never ever thought I would be rooting for that model.

I doubt I'll muster a snow day. Even if if I somehow manage several inches here, my office in Waterville will max at 1-2.

Are you not way out in NW Mass anymore?

West of 0z

I think mt holly is spot on, 10 to 16” in SE PA seems right. 16-24” in Jersey with largest totals towards the coast.

GEFS look even slightly better

Hopefully another 6-12er after this. Just looking for one big one in March to give this winter an A and at least 55 60".. assuming this one works out OK

Nam kutchera is just stupid insane totals. But again has the edge of Ccb in a similar spot to gfs. Western Berks 9" and eastern 26". Kutchera of course.

I'll be better off tracking that one.

GFS also has another big one Friday

The GFS machine is nearly identical, mostly noise if anything. GFS is a tick west and more robust. 15-30 region wide except N/NW MA berks cuts off sharply

Ralph, I too, woke up to go pee BUT, did more than I bargained for, IN MY BED, after reading your initial NAM “poo” post… THANKS‼️

Last night's 6" brings me to 65" for the season. I'll probably finish around average (80-isih) while this storm will make many in SNE score the winter as an A+.