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I'm ready for May. Time to fire up the thread

If this suddenly arrives in the grids and has more physical forcing then those on panels above might get 10 or 20% more meaningful to the region ( S-E). If less, the flatter versions there prevail.

Ripping nicely with this band swinging through

Normally I'd take the EPS but its been junk lately. I'll blend the two.

Read my post. Pretty sure it explains the confusion/contention

I left for work at 8:30 (don't judge, I have a late meeting today) and it was 34 with a few sprinkles falling at the house. My low yesterday morning was 12.

The first 10 days of December have been pretty chilly.

right. you know, tracking that s/w's spacing back in the flow ..it's not even yet over the American owned sounding domain. I'm sure we're not exactly purchasing sounding data from Russia heh ...if they are even plumbing the skies over Siberia at all in the first place. Anyway, it's all based on assimilation. Although satellite sounding. Still, it's almost like the models assume something should be there in the flow in that spatial-temporal/geometric region, then propagating the assumption along ...at difficult to manage, ludicrous speed. Perhaps if there was better physically realized, direct sampling the handling might be more stable. I mean I suspect something like this is going on. Look at the Euro's last 4 cycles ... left to right, the most recent to 24 hours ago ( 6 hours apart). On off on off... That's been rather predictable just within that small range. Something perhaps added than missing every other run

What, lmao. It took an act of god to delay or close CMU when I was there back in the 2000s.

University delayed start until 11am, doesn't really seem like 4" would warrant that, but I guess so

If I was a betting man…

21.0° overcast Had 0.1” overnight…racking up those tenths

I think if we all put our minds to it, we could easily crowd fund a small cabin in the Tug Hills of NY

This has been debunked by many meteorologists.

mostly bare grass here at the office near o'hare am snow squalls more of the cold rain variety so far need the late week events to reverse trends asap otherwise looks like white xmas chances are p low imo

Nope, and that's how we learn...in that respect, AI and actual intelligence are alike. Thank you.

Yup, let’s shake the beotch up some. I’m fine with a few milder days, and then see where we stand. Be nice to get the next system though…hope that can work out for us/the area.

6z EPS (favors north of DC) vs GEFS (favors south of DC)....

Not saying it's going to break or it's not going to break. Even if it does, I don't think it's going to be a long-term, warm pattern for the rest of the winter. My point is, no reason to break down. By the way, I really do appreciate reading your breakdown of what you expect for this winter. Nothing ever goes exactly as we plan, but I believe the general consensus of what will happen this winter will fall well into what you had explained in your winter Outlook. Thank you for that

Been meaning to mention this for a while. I think a lot of people (including some professionals) are misinterpreting the implications of the 12z and 0z being more accurate due to ingesting more fresh data. This means that right after the 0z comes out it's going to generally have better verification scores than the 6z does right after it comes out. It does not mean that after the 6z comes out, the 6 hour old 0z is going to still be more accurate than the brand new 6z. The 6z has access to whatever fresh data it ingested PLUS whatever was available at 0z for the data points where it hasn't ingested anything new. So it should still be better than a now-stale 0z. To summarize: maybe take 6z runs with a grain of salt, but still put more stock in them than in older runs

And we can't get a trough to center in the right place to save our lives the last 6 or 7 years. There is a tendency for them to center over the lakes or the NE when we need them further west. We could possibly score with that scenario and a strong CAD but the NAO hasnt helped either and the cold scoots away.

Yeah looks like the warm up is going to be brief and maybe not all that noticable? Like MAG suggested yesterday, it doesn't look like Torch City.

As @NorthHillsWx said, the pattern has been too progressive and we really need a tall ridge (+PNA) in the west to get this northern stream energy to dig further south. We are exiting a La Nina but I worry about atmospheric lag. As we all know February and March are usually toast in La Nina years. Most of us haven't seen a big snow in these months since 2014 regardless of the indices.

Someone saw Santa’s list early…