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This is the first time I've heard of an EPac system taking advantage of a positive trough interaction to maintain intensity further north than normal.

Tornado Warning FLC037-045-091945- /O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0050.261009T1912Z-261009T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida... Southwestern Franklin County in Big Bend Florida... * Until 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/. * At 311 PM EDT/211 PM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over St George Island, moving northwest at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... St George Island and Eastpoint around 315 PM EDT. Apalachicola around 320 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Franklin, Bay City, Apalachicola Airport, Creels, Tilton, Beverly, and Hays Place. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2978 8519 2991 8492 2962 8477 2958 8489 TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 141DEG 33KT 2964 8487 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ 55-SCHOLL

tornado over the water, south of Crawfordsville FL

I have the ac on in my house.

It’s silly clowns like that that ruin a good board.

Numerous mesovorticies dancing around that eyewall

Meh wtf is wrong with you mehing everything and everyone

Crankin

What a beast. Who saw this coming a week ago

Agree! Stellar day out this way. Near perfect. Only some high clouds keeping it from a top 10.

Yep, southern eyewall clearly being eaten away. But the north side is still clearly in beast mode and trying as best it can to wrap around.

meh. nothing unexpected

Seasonal models have a strong default ENSO bias. Pretty sad really, these are the front leading forecasting tools. They have a mean of like -100 to -120dm for DJFM, which is climo Super Nino. I probably give that a 5% chance of happening, completely out of sync with recent patterns.

I think Kansas will see a tropical storm before we do again. Or just anyplace but here. I’m headed to Phoenix for a week next weekend and I’ll miss the storms down there currently. I can’t win

What a ride for October at Pen-Mar. A 91 and at 35 so far.

I can hear the thunder from that super cell here on SGI.

You have to move out to the western burbs; it’s close to a top 10 day of the year. I’ve stopped working and have cracked open a beverage.

Very strong supercell churning approx 35 miles SE of Carrabelle

The eyewall is roughly 4 hours away. We’re on final approach

Caps need to slow down Blue tonight. Alex T for the game winner.

Most of the latest hurricane models had this around 950mb at its current spot. How much it weakens from here on out is the question. The HWRF actually keeps it sub 960mb at landfall. We shall see.

You just can't get over Pearl Harbor.

Conditions are steadily deteriorating in Wright FL. Conservative sustained winds are 25 with gusts to 35-40 .

My initial reaction was that tornado potential would be confined to southeast VA and the Eastern Shore, because widespread rain over the DC metro area would limit instability. Looking at CAMs, however, suggests that rain will likely end by early or mid afternoon for areas south and southeast of the warm front, and some decently high theta-e air will be available. With the intense shear forecasted, it won't take much instability to make things very interesting. The question, though, the track of the surface low. My money is still on a track that keeps the warm sector south and east of DC, but there are solutions that track the low further to the northwest which would put our area into the game later Sunday.