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For those who didn’t realize it, 1905’s very late 1st on record H was similarly powerful to Isaias with it peaking as a MH (cat 3) and that was also during El Niño. *Edited: it was not the last storm of the season at genesis but was when it degenerated below TC status at its end.

Now the NCEP systems have rolled out the RRFS ensemble members (I guess,) and the NAM, for now, has not disappeared.

I am not impressed with the satellite signature.

surprise hailstorms in Iowa

Amazing Liberty! 20 post responses within one post……. Should we contact Guinness? As long as a ‘Daily Post Within A Post limited member’ designation is not created, you’ve certainly found a way. Five of these would be equivalent to a hundred post/responses daily. You would definitely secure a place in the New Englands Forums post count hall of fame. Stay well, as always ….

still 62F here - city warmth!

ATL’s looking worse right now at Duke/GT gametime than Tuscaloosa’s looking even during most of afternoon well before kickoff. Why with all of the warranted concern for GA/AL are the media hardly, if any, talking about any concern about Duke-Georgia Tech in ATL? Can you explain this double standard? Well, I realize way more interest and of course $ are involved with GA/AL, but that’s beside the point of concern about human beings wherever they are.

Yeah looks like its downfall could happen fast and it being a small storm make it even more susceptible

So, with all of the talk about the safety of folks in Tuscaloosa for GA/FL (which I agree is warranted), why doesn’t the media seem to care much about the safety of folks going to Bobby Dodd Sat afternoon, which will likely have worse conditions than Tuscaloosa in the mid to late afternoon (gametime in ATL) because worst conditions at Tuscaloosa should end by early afternoon. This is such a silly/stupid double standard. —————— FFC’s not playing around: .FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... —————— SATURDAY SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

If that's the case, then there's no way they play the Georgia-Alabama game as scheduled.

Congrats on the new digs. When are you getting a PWS?

Also has it pretty much on the coast at 100 mph now

Nhc has it hitting 115 now. Not surprising based on structure improvement. 105 mph now and 969 mb.

I dropped 25F in 3.5 hours 10 F drop 9-10. 64 to 54

Low of 35 here I'll post some frost photos. Edit can't post them darned file size limit so here is another fall foliage photo instead. If they got down to 30 they beat Mount Pocono by 1 degree. All Cat 1 landfalls should be retired. Worst since Sandy both for winds and damage. Rooftop only frost but 35 for the low 37 is the lowest temperature you can have frost. Interesting temperature difference 35 here with light rooftop frost 31 at Mount Pocono first freeze and 37 at Scranton. It was also unexpected. It should be mandatory for all Cat 1 landfalls to be retired. Worst since Sandy. This is why you need to remove weak trees near the house. Yikes that's NASTY! And the air conditioning the following day lol. 35 here and light frost but only on my roof. I had both air conditioning and heat on in August. Or even both at the same time lol. Meh I'll turn it on in August if it's cold. 35 here and frost but only on my roof. Weak trees close to the house need to be removed I had to do that after a microburst in 2018. Same temperature as Mount Pocono 31 first freeze. Wow only 68 here but tomorrow should be warmer in the 70s with less wind. Maybe you will hit 80.

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

0z hrrr and nam absolutely shred this just before landfall. Halficane

This is going to be a highly satisfying storm. It is still intensifying and might touch Cat 3. ANTECEDENT FRESHWATER: Soils are hypersaturated. They might get to see 15 additional inches of rain Winds felling trees: Ground is saturated. It won't take much wind to topple every last tree in that saturated soil. Look out houses, buildings, cars and people trying to jebwalk in this thing. Gulf of Mexico Bathymetry: Shape of the bottom will enable the storm to push a lot of ocean up onto the low lying coast resulting in incredible storm surge! People will get to watch that water go up, even gushing UP through drains! There is a possibility of more rain than expected with this. The moisture will have nowhere to go thanks to a blocking high over the Mid Atlantic. South Georgia, West Florida SE Alabama are all under the gun with this system! APPLICATION: Very exciting storm, satisfying rain amounts, strong winds and lots of falling trees along with storm surge flooding and freshwater flooding exacerbated, thanks to saturated grounds because of antecedent heavy rains before this storm. I fervently wish I was down there in the worst hit regions, I'd be blasting Daddy Yankee tracks and dancing like Smeagle in Lord of the Rings!

I wouldn't even call it the remnants... it is a low pressure pulling up gulf moisture.

Bet this is close to major already