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I think that was the previous year, Feb. 2024. We saw epic patterns show up consistently in the extended ensembles and in the Euro weeklies. There was a lot of hype (understandable) and a lot of high feeling toward the end of January for a remarkable wintry February. Then almost suddenly as February began, the ensembles all shit the bed and showed a crap pattern...which is exactly what happened, it was uneventful and warmer than normal and there was nothing in March either. The thing last year (Feb. 2025) really was that one event later in the month where every model was hammering us (and the GFS joined the party late), only to whisk it away at nearly the last minute not that far in advance.

Ha see I’m the opposite. Im a snow lover that hates the cold, give me a 60s and sun all month and one HECS mixed in would be heaven for me.

3 of Baltimores 17 biggest snowstorms came in March. Baltimore has had snows of 22”, 16” and 13” in March. And 2 years ago I ran the numbers and showed that Baltimores odds of getting a 4”, 8” and 12” Storm peak the first week of February but then only decrease slightly until you get to the 3rd week of March when they drop off a cliff. You say this every year. Every single year. And one proven it’s false like 3 times and you still say it. Why?

troubling trend on Euro Weeklies. We had a an ice box from Feb 13-20 just a few days ago. it did th same crap in december where is showed snow and cold all december and missed the severe warm up right before the holidays

06z - 18z the system has gotten weaker and seems further south. Which could be due to the system by NY.

Kinda surprising, but kinda not given the depth of the cold air atw to the coast in SE NC....Crystal Coast and Brunswick County are the only S facing Atlantic coastline south of Long Island.....precip flow was off the ocean last night. At OKI we get our worst thunderstorms off Onslow Bay to the south, and even a high end tropical storm or CAT 1 with a landfall around NMB/Little River can give us an 8-10' storm surge (Isiais and Matthew most recently) because of the right (perpendicular to flow) angle, shallow water at the mouth of the Cape Fear and enhanced rainfall. I have seen what resembles an 8' tidal bore with a strong north wind and a big runoff from recent heavy rains on the river when the tide changes during the winter (river water is ass-.nasty, btw)... I always wondered how it would play out during a winter storm with the right amount of cold air....guess I finally have my answer My neighbor at Oak Island sent me a pic of my house from this morning....he said around 8"+

Looks like a big change/flip in the long range over the last 24 hours. One run does not make a trend, but 3 00z/12z runs in a row just did a resounding repudiation of the freezing february pattern. Interestingly, AI ensembles led the way on this. We may be able to thaw this glacier out by presidents day weekend, or if its not as warm as progged, weekend after. Unfortunately we may have lost big snow chances for the next 2 weeks, and by the time it gets cold again with the SSW effect and weak MJO 3, we’d be running out of time by that point. Not saying it won’t snow then, but more likely to be smaller to moderate events.

The 12z EPS appears to show only brief temporary ridging for our region beginning on the 9th & it’s gone by the 13th this run. We look to be entering a period of transience.

That would give me my 56 I had thought I would get post NY

It's becoming increasingly clear that Sunday storm will likely be the thing we all remember the most from this winter.

I’m certainly not saying we can’t score something during -PNA. Just going off of what the models are showing today. I just find it interesting how it’s pairing up perfectly with the SSW that is likely to happen and how they generally play out

March snow blows goats. Snow then it’s 60. If we don’t score at all in Feb then…well I do t know but it’s not good i

DCA having a fit this afternoon with an 8 degree increase on one hourly and just now a 5 degree drop on another hourly

Gulf coast has been getting some ridiculous cold the last couple winters. Also 2 big snow events in the far southeast. Last year it was the FL panhandle getting a blizzard with like a foot of snow and then this year we had this weekend’s storm in SC and NC coastlines.

I think the period around or immediately prior to mid-month was always looking like a relax for a bit (not necessarily a torch though), but trends were that the 2nd half of February into March would become more favorable. And as you say, the "classic" Lakes cutter or similar system is certainly not an uncommon event. Obviously, nobody can (or should be) looking to repeat the level of cold we've had the past week or so and extending through the upcoming week. But as others have mentioned, keep some solid highs up in Canada lurking around and we can perhaps tap into that at an opportune time. In other words, it shouldn't be a Pac Puke shit the blinds situation from my understanding. I also thought that a somewhat negative to neutral PNA isn't necessarily a bad thing if we can have at least a somewhat cooperative North Atlantic (which again, thought I heard that should generally remain decent) and get some bootleg confluence to the northeast. All in all, I get the sense that at least some in here are essentially ready to write off this entire month already. I'm in no way claiming that we're "guaranteed" a good event, or a HECS, or anything like that (we all know it could just end up in the shitter!)...nor am I trying to imply that's what you're saying here...but everyone was so bummed out at missing what turned into the big southeast snow event that the mood in here has become pretty grim in a lot of ways.

Yeah there will probably be a brief relaxation period.

Yeah, starting to see the dreaded “Pattern should be much more favorable by March” remarks.

Right where we want it.

Punting to March? Yikes

I’m not a SSW expert, just relaying info from mets on Philly discord. We generally thaw during SSWs, which makes sense since a thaw is now showing up on the modeling over the next 10+ days coinciding with the SSW Account for the normal lag effect from a SSW we’re probably below normal or normal temps near beginning of March.

I always say to enjoy the coldest temps of the year around here. Most years now they don't last long and then we will be roasting in humidity and heat for many months. The cold this year has been great. Skiing has been nice, and the sun makes it feel not so bad. It has been impressively sunny. Some love to complain about the weather no matter what it does. There is only bad gear and bad attitudes. Only weather that truly demoralizes me is constant mist/rain between 34-50 that we seem to get for weeks in April now.

WB 18Z 12K NAM on its way south like everything else this year....

18.8 here but had more clouds

My guess is only ENE along coasts . Maybe CT shore

I don’t see how MCPS opens tomorrow either. Even in the Kentlands the ice and snow piles are huge and sidewalks still quite hazardous. Busses literally can’t drive many routes. this region is paralyzed.