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Bro the gfs just had the rain snow line down in Richmond Virginia. Chill .

I’ve learned a long time ago that you want the primary low to transfer from around Tennessee and not seep into Kentucky or further north. If you ever worry about mixing, watch for that. Learned the hard way in Feb 2007.

4" of sleet on top of like 6-10" I guess?

Quick post-mortem on the Saturday and Sunday snowfalls around here - I usually do these for the Philly-NJ-NYC region so thought I'd post one here. Basically, the models did a lousy job in the 2+ days out timeframe with little consistency and most being wrong, showing maybe 1-2" N of 78 on Saturday and nada south of there and showing maybe 1-2" for the coast and towards 95 on Sunday, with very little NW of 95. The forecasts prior to 2 days out were similarly underdone for most compared to what occurred. Fortunately, the models did finally move toward what we saw and the NWS forecasts (and other forecasts) about 18 hours before the start of each event (see the two NWS forecasts below) were generally pretty good relative to what actually occurred, as shown in the two snowfall maps below, with a few exceptions. First, on Saturday, the forecast for 2-4"N of 78 and well NW of 95 and S of 78 did well, but the snow from the clipper ended up being 1-3" for most of the 95 corridor, which has been predicted to get <1" - more cold air moved in with the precip along 95 keeping it as accumulating snow instead of white rain or a mix. Second, the forecast was for 2-4/3-5" for NENJ, NYC, LI and the Hudson Valley, but those areas generally only got 1-3" (due to less precip falling vs. what was expected). The other modest miss was on Sunday where the NWS forecast was for 1-3" for far NWNJ, the Poconos and most of EPA while the outcome was 3-5" for most of that area - most of the models were showing less precip due to being further from the coastal low. FYI, we got 2.2" on Saturday and 1.7/2.4" in rounds 1/2 on Sunday for 4.1" total and 6.3" for the weekend. Up to 17.5" for the season.

Sleet is possible in any of these big storms. The warm layer can find its way in.. but the cold air is pretty well entrenched with this system and and I am not quite seeing much of the negative tilt in upper levels that would lead to warm air intrusion. This is also the same reason why we are not seeing the HECs level QPF totals like we saw in 03. Obviously this can change.. but this looks more like snow than anything else for the DC metro region.

Tons of sleet. I don't have the model total but it was mainly sleet for the typical CAD prone areas all the way into Atlanta.

this\ this is obviously earlier on, but there is MUCH more divergence with the GEFS this run than the past few runs. there are actually some suppressed solutions too. overall it's going to be somewhat north of 18z though. likely axis of heavest accumulations from CHO to EZF.

Ironically I was just comparing some 18z and 00z data

Relax. We were never getting 16”

Currently 21.1 IMBY.

This. We've had 125% of the needed 'north trend' happen in 2 runs. It is only Tuesday as you said, this happening over the next 3 days would have been a lot better. MAYBE a couple models drift back south, but usually once a trend starts it doesn't stop. I know it's only the GFS and CMC, but heck at this rate we may be talking severe weather by Saturday.

Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting

Guilty, lol But we still have a long ways to go...we legit don't know if this is gonna be a trend or not--or how far north it could go

Lowkenuinely its over for you bro. You finna gon get beat up dude!

At this stage I still feel like it's more likely some NS trash is introduced (or a helpful piece is lost) that prevents a CMC phase, than we actually get the CMC phase. This has not been a NS that plays nice and phases eagerly this winter.

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CMC did it too Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

lol if this hugs the coast it's because there's a blizzard ongoing

Any sleet in ATL on gfs or all freezing rain?

Canadian must be annihilation anybody have a map

the worst part about the Canada is it dosent go back to snow after sleet. That would be unusual

Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away...

For sure, and it will be under modeled as well.

The mid-Atlantic will be fine. At least DC-Baltimore. It’s Richmond and the southern areas that might see this slip away. Just as PDII became a tedious sleet storm for them.

I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds!