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We can probably ignore 2021, since there was no el nino. 1991, with the robust el nino, is probably the better analog. That one bucked the trend, and was an extremely warm spring and summer in the Eastern US. The thing about 1991 was that there was a major volcano in mid-June (which screwed things up), and don't have that (yet) this year.

the reason for this stream of moisture is a stationary sitting from northeast of Scranton down through northern Maryland and precip now is staying mainly west of the NJ Turnpike and is encountering drier air as it is moving northeast and becoming lighter in northern NJ - so it is doubtful that heavier precip in Mayland makes it this far north

We are witnessing history and will very likely never see an El Niño event this strong again in our lifetimes

MESSAGE 2: Increasing heat risk to end June and start July A major pattern change over the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West this weekend will likely result in a downstream upper ridge developing over the eastern U.S. by early next week. Blended ensemble guidance driving the prototype probabilistic heatrisk is confirming the signal for a building to potentially prolonged heatwave to end June and start July. CPC has placed a 20-40% slight risk of extreme heat over CPA from 6/30-7/6 with higher chances in the 40-60% range in southeast PA. High humidity and temperatures (highs in the 90s with heat index values possibly reaching 100F) will greatly increase the risk of heat-related illness.

That sucks. I was worried yall would miss out. Your time is coming, maybe one day?

I do think RONI matters here when you’re looking at how the W pacific SSTS can destructively interfere with things. Mostly because warm SSTAs everywhere also raise the “floor” of 500 mb GPH, so a negative relative anomaly in the W pac is probably sufficient in preventing the W pac from contributing to a rossby wave response (floor is high enough it’s not a ridge relative to GPH). Hope I’m making any sense when I theorize this. tldr: W pac is already becoming negative in relative terms which i think is “good enough” since height anomalies are also relative in terms of rossby waves.

The WCS daily PDO has increased from -1.4 on May 27th (per the WCS tweet being quoted) to -0.3 on June 22nd! Folks need to keep in mind that these can fluctuate a good bit from week to week. Regardless, this 1.1 rise is notable and it did occur during a significant strengthening of El Niño:

Whoever did their rain dance in Raleigh this morning, it worked.

Just teasing the grass here. Screwed again.

0.92" between yesterday and today. I actually got more today (.49") than yesterday (.43").

Looks like Heatmiser!

Y'all can keep that nonsense

"VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL"

A solid hit of rain in Raleigh today at least!

Hoping to not jinx it, but eyeballing about .35” for the day in the gauge with more to come.

Since GFSX MOS only goes out 8 days, I assume you are looking at 2 m temps? I would not use 2 m temps beyond 5 days as they get whacked often b/c the do not incorporate climo stats like MOS does. Same goes for ECMWF. I've seen the GFS 2 m temps a number of times over the years show 110 for BOS DY7 are beyond.

Severe thunderstorm watch posted further south/east from DC, including Calvert and St Mary's.

Winds picking up. Steady rain. Sitting at just over 1.5" since it started yesterday.

heh ..maybe we will get some brightening sooner than thought? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined seems to be collapsing S while thinning

Better than expected totals and more to come. Over 0.6” and counting.

From a former co-worker: "I'm up the First CT Lake and its overflowing. River is 10x the normal summer flow and completely unfishable. Locals saying they've never seen the lake this high."

While these very long range forecasts aren’t the strong suit of these seasonal models, notice how weak the subsurface cold pool is near the Dateline by next March. The warmth in the east looks similar to March 1998. But the cold pool is significantly smaller from the Dateline and westward. Nino 3.4 is also much warmer than 1998 by the end of the run.

This is not a "contest." It is a discussion forum. And the fact the hot wx looks like it will occur irrelevant here. I was talking about the overuse and obsession w/ "heat dome" and other concocted labels/terms the media focused on to hype.

Looks like more rain chances Thurs-Sat

Using my "I'm the boss" card this afternoon. The area of rain is building and looking good. I'm going to put my bathing suit on and go for a rainy hike. It's been so dry that it should feel great out there.