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DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Today`s forecast remains a very challenging one in regards to the potential for severe thunderstorms. At this point, there`s a wide range of potential solutions on the table, with very low confidence in which solution will ultimately verify. However, ahead of any thunderstorm threat, very warm temperatures again this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Record high temperatures may again be in jeopardy (see Climate section below for more information). This is ahead of a powerful cold front, which will bring a substantial change to the weather thereafter. Now, shifting gears to the more pressing topic, which is today`s severe weather threat. First, current conditions differ a bit from the previous forecast, with no morning convection to deal with at this time anywhere in our forecast area. Looking upstream though, a piece of shortwave energy branching off of the southern stream energy over the southern Plains sparked a few showers overnight across the MS River Valley, but those never really got going. However, there is some cloud debris from this activity that is heading in our general direction, currently over the OH Valley. The more potent convection has generally followed the evolution portrayed form the 00z NAM, keeping us clear from convection this morning, unlike some of the global guidance. Latest runs of the HRRR are also capturing this pretty well, so at least for now, that may be a good point to start from. Now, looking into the future, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the evolution today, but the lack of substantial convection this morning does lend me to believe that we don`t get completely capped today, so will lean generally in that direction with this morning`s forecast. The primary feature at play today is a potent northern stream trough, which will continue to amplify as it tracks eastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes today. A corresponding surface low will deepen as it tracks northeastward from Lower Michigan across the Lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. The low-level mass response to the deepening cyclone will lead to strengthening low-mid level winds, as a 700 mb jet of 50-70 knots develops over the Ohio Valley this morning before spreading over our area by peak heating this afternoon. Southerly flow at low-levels will draw deeper moisture (low 60s dewpoints) northward into the area, which when combined with daytime heating (surface temps climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s) will lead to surface-based destabilization (MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg). Assuming that storms occur, the environment in place with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and effective bulk shear values of around 50 knots (with nearly all of it below 700 mb) will be very favorable for the development of severe storms. Per the most recent guidance, and using the guidance with the best current initialization, this is the current thinking for convective evolution today. First, the showers over the OH Valley are beginning to increase in coverage, but are generally moving towards PA and should largely stay north of our are this morning. Some clouds are likely to move into our area as a result. The biggest question is, will they clear out enough to realize the aforementioned CAPE value this afternoon? Looking at forecast soundings, even in those that don`t really initiate convection, leads me to believe we will, and that the storms moving out of central WV into our region by early-mid afternoon do have a decent chance to maintain or redevelop on our side of the Allegheny Front. Assuming this does happen, the available shear/instability support both multicell structures, as well as discrete supercell structures. All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes with any storms this afternoon. The environment in place will make damaging winds possible with any storms that form. However, that threat would likely be maximized in scenarios that produce a more linear convective mode, with a QLCS or smaller bowing segments. A more cellular mode would likely lead to supercells, a greater threat for both severe hail and tornadoes, and lesser areal coverage of damaging winds compared to a linear mode. Storms spread east through the afternoon and towards the I-95 corridor by this evening. The eastward extent is also in question, and will likely depend on what from convection takes. The Storm Prediction Center maintained the SLGT risk for severe today, but did expand their 5% tornado probability outline for most of the area, and maintained the CIG1 hatching area (suggesting a reasonable maximum tornado intensity of EF-2, if a tornado were to occur). That hatched area with 5% probs is an indication of the level of uncertainty still in the forecast, but also the high-end nature if things do tailor towards the worst-case scenario. They also have a 5 percent hail contour, and a 30% wind contour (which is driving the SLGT risk category). There is no CIG 1 hatching for wind, but hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) are needed to justify wind hatching. It wouldn`t be a shock to see some 60-70 mph gusts in any bowing segments. The main line of showers that will accompany the actual cold front itself will largely fizzle into showers with a shift in synoptic winds in its wake. This is because it comes through overnight, with no instability left to work with. A brief summary of the main takeaways follows below: -Forecast uncertainty is very high tomorrow. Plausible scenarios range from no severe thunderstorms at all, to a very impactful severe thunderstorm event. -Any storms that do form this afternoon will likely turn severe, posing at least a threat for damaging winds, and potentially large hail and tornadoes too (if the storm mode is supercellular). -The timing of the most intense storms is expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest storms (if they occur at all) expected to move through the I-95 corridor between roughly 3 and 8 PM. -A squall line will likely approach from the Ohio Valley and track toward the Alleghenies tomorrow evening, but will likely be weakening as it does so. Any severe threat with this line will likely stay confined to along/west of the Allegheny Front.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 532 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-120945- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 532 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Severe thunderstorms are possible today, most likely between 4 PM and 9 PM. Severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, a few instances of large hail, and a few tornadoes which could even be strong. Monitor the latest forecast for updates and watches, and be sure to have a way to receive warnings promptly. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Wind gusts could approach gale-force over the waters on Friday afternoon into Friday evening, particularly closer to shore. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.

No updates from the SPC yet this morning. Its not uncommon for the NWS or SPC to run late on their updates recently ,and sometimes not at all.. I wonder if they're waiting on sounding data updates.

-- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 420 FXUS61 KCTP 110944 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 544 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor changes to SPC outlook limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but degree of instability remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. 2) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. A cold front will sweep through tonight into Thursday, as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front, numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated today and this evening. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area continues to include practically all of central PA with minor changes limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The main uncertainty with respect to the severe threat continues to be instability with recent HREF model guidance indicating considerable cloudiness across much of the area with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation. Probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent HREF top out in the 40-70 pct range across southwestern and south central PA this afternoon and early evening. Generally less than a 40 pct chance north of I-80. That said, with winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the ground. While damaging straight line winds will be the most common threat with today`s convection, the SPC D1 outlook also maintains CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania, meaning the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop across southern PA, they could be strong. This is supported by 250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH and LCLs near 1000 m this afternoon and early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Given the limited precip and warm ground, not expecting snow accumulation. NW winds will gust 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Winds will get weaker as the day progresses on Thursday. The next system will be a potent Clipper moving across the Great Lakes on Friday. This will likely bring a band of rain and snow showers across mainly the north, but otherwise more of a wind producer than a precip maker. Wind gusts in the 40-50 kt range are possible Fri afternoon into Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens. Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather. Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into the upper 40s and 50s. Much colder air and gusty winds push back in behind the cold front Monday night with chilly temps around through the middle of next week. Latest NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected overnight as a potent frontal boundary inches toward the area but remains west. Visibilities may drop in BR at a few locations as the temperature / dewpoint spread is just a degree or two. Convection over Michigan and northern Indiana will generally move into New York state with showers possibly making it as far south as KBFD after sunrise. Elsewhere, conditions should remain dry into the early afternoon with increasing winds from the southwest. Pre-frontal line of storms looks to cross the state through the mid-afternoon through early evening from west to east. Expect LLWS in TSRA gusts. The actual front will cross the region toward the end of the forecast period with a brief period of heavy rain showers and a wind shift to the northwest. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers, with restrictions possible. Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow showers most likely at KBFD and KJST. Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of PA. Restrictions possible. && .CLIMATE... As of 530 PM, some new records. Altoona temperature estimated at 78 for the high today, old record of 72 degrees set in 1986. Bradford high of 70 broke the old record of 66 degrees set in 1986. Williamsport high of 77 broke the old record of 71 degrees set in 1977. Harrisburg high of 80 broke the old record of 79 degrees set in 2016. Earlier info. below. Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s. RECORD TEMPERATURES TUE 3/10 WED 3/11 MAX T MIN T MAX T Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025) Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025) Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021) State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986) Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Colbert DISCUSSION...Colbert/Beaty AVIATION...Tyburski CLIMATE...Banghoff

gonna be heartbreaking if our hot start severe season mirrors our winter and pulls up lame in april

Tornado passed very very close to me. Maybe 5 minutes down the road. Wild they turned the sirens off I’m basically where the word “Momence” in on the map, I live off 1

Snow can happen in March or April, but under the right conditions. We just don't have that right now. We have (1) a lack of cold air, (2) the ground is too warm, and (3) the sun angle is too high. We need temps in the 30s and 40s for a few weeks, and that probably isn't happening. Winter weather is just about over. Do not hold out hope for any snow.

We all know snow is not going to happen. (1) There isn't enough cold air, (2) the ground is way too warm, and (3) the sun angle is way too high.

84 to wet snow flakes

I just took a walk around my house this morning and I wasn't surprised to see the Wood frogs or the or the red back salamander, but I haven't see too many snakes out in March, if any ,especially at night. I generally only see snakes out at night late June July and August on the warmest of nights. I try to avoid as many as I could, but frogs and toads were popping under my tires as I drove by some wetlands last night. I absolutely love frogs and toads and will stop to save them when they're not everywhere. I always save large bullfrogs and turtles if I see them on the road .

Hmm...

Euro has an inch or so verbatim. Could be some flakes in the air.

77 degrees yesterday which set a record here, the low yesterday was 32 degrees. Which is a pretty good temperature spread. Appears we are forecasted to get .50” of rain today. It was a welcome run of warmer weather. Now back to winter. 45 degrees this morning.

Hey @H2Otown_WX could you help me out with something? There is notorious missing data from BDL from 1996-2002 on the F6 and climo data. However, i have this theory and suspicion i wonder if you could verify or deny it. There are a lot of reports from around that time on the PNS from BOS during significant snow events and almost always lists East Granby. Kind of strange that during that missing data time East Granby is always there but Windsor Locks is not. Did BDL once report from East Granby? When i checked on google maps Bradley International spans over both towns. So it would make sense that it was once reported as "East Granby" instead of Windsor Locks. Though that still doesn't explain why a lot of data is missing. Just a theory, thought you might know or could find out. Thanks.

Just barely in the spc 5# tornado risk

Sounds like you did ok brother. We all know what to do during a tornado when we’re sitting on the couch in clear weather. And it’s easy to judge when we are safely watching videos away from the danger. When it actually happens IRL it’s so much different and I know from experience. I also regret some of my decisions when I was in one. I hope you’re all safe man glad you’re ok. Take a breather, and I’m being serious here, play some Tetris (an actual proven way to help with trauma right after experiencing it). You’re not dumb. When shtf our brains go to mush. You did what you could under stress and pressure and it sounds like you’re all ok that’s what matters. You did good man. I’m sorry you experienced this though.

Still cellular, but slowly getting more information locally. Damage and videos show probably a few hundred yards to noticeable impact and probably less than half of a mile from considerable damage reported. Also replayed the video I took while coming out from shelter to check on the situation*. The tornado is very audibly noticeable. Boring video because it’s pitch black, but features constant roar of wind and a suction sound as the door to my patio shuts. *I’m dumb for coming out of shelter to check. It was a chaotic environment featuring me, spouse, an elderly grandparent we are caretaking, 3 dogs & 3 cats. From the moment power cut, I lost ability to monitor radar. Not even cell data would work. The couplet was clearly headed for us, and I did my best to estimate it the time it would take to clear. I was too focused on alleviating the chaos with an all clear. Lessons learned. First time I felt genuine threat from a tornado. Nerves still fried and I generally love the spicy booms.

We have a chance like Jim Carrey... In all serious though, i saw it, something to keep an eye on, seems like this winter wants to snow late month every month...

I had one strip from a drift left at sunset. Other than that no natural left, just shovel piles.

I really hope against hope that Fall 2026 is one of the very WORST SUPER NINOs on Record. Maybe a ten billion year Super Nino. I want rain so bad now, I wish we would get a Harvey that would be located about 50 miles southwester from Buda and spin for four weeks, pulling truly Brobdingnagian amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, with persistent rain rates in excess of 3 inches per hour for days on end. I don't care how many people are impacted. I want my waters so bad. I crave rain so bad. I want quagmires 20 feet deep! I would not mind 600 inches between Sept 2026 and April 2027. Every storm is missing us. We're so desperate. Dallas has had 9 inches already. I've seen this before. We are heading right into a Super 2011, hell heat and absolutely no meaningful rain to be had.

I like the feeling being at the head of the action. It makes me feel like we won't get the shaft, but the south better be on there balls tomorrow.

What's crazy is that we already had a 5" candidate that would also break the record and then got the 6" report. That's one of the most intense thunderstorms on record in IL. Twice setting new state hail records (likely) with a significant tornado just south of the giant hail. Plains type stuff. Definitely feel for everyone affected down there. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Getting the worst lightning storm (frequent, prolific) I've experienced so early currently, just incredible. Its 4C and dropping, DP of 3C. 200+ strikes in 40 mins. 10mm in less than a hr I still have 5-8 inches snow on most grass with large snow piles. I don't know if its Mar 11 or the 12th but 14 years ago about this time I got one of my only severe t-storms since 2010 which crazily may be the only other frequent lightning event so early (kicked off the great March heatwave). I had sizable hail during that one, no hail in this ongoing storm.

In all 3 "zones" of the HWO from last night DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely between 2 PM and 10 PM Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, a few instances of large hail, and a couple tornadoes which could even be strong. Monitor the latest forecast for updates and watches, and be sure to have a way to receive warnings promptly. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Wednesday