All Activity

ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,

I hope machine learning ( which is very bullish) regarding severe weather is somewhat accurate. See below: Upper level ridging is expected to build overhead on Thursday, with several models also showing a shortwave disturbance passing through the top of the ridge. How this disturbance evolves will have a large impact on our forecast locally. If the disturbance passes through early in the day, we could have large scale subsidence and relatively low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. If it were to approach at peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large impact on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the forecast details on Thursday is lower than normal. What models are in good agreement about, is that the background environment will be highly unstable (CAPE values likely in excess of 3000 J/kg). There will also be enough dry air in the mid-levels to support strong downdrafts (DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg), and just enough shear (around 20 kt) to give storms some weak organization. Such an environmental setup is common in many of our more impactful summer severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there appears to be a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. That threat for severe thunderstorms may continue on Friday as a shortwave disturbance passes to our northwest through the Great Lakes causing the upper ridge to break down and a surface cold front to approach from the northwest. With greater synoptic scale forcing, confidence in the occurrence of storms is higher on Friday, but instability might be slightly lesser. Machine learning guidance is very bullish on the severe thunderstorms threat for both Thursday and Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming days.

Good question. I was going to ask if anyone wants to discuss the snap-back tendency that the historical Strong Nino analog has given us, but I think a lot of attention is on this event because it may end up extreme. I think the Nina snap-back won't be as strong this go around, but it's early. Something to watch is if cold water starts to get going in the western and central subsurface, through the next few months and into the Fall and Winter. The big, long lasting Nina's all had major cold in the subsurface during the height of previous Strong Nino peak. Here is the historical dataset: Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 are your Super Nino's. Subsurface data since 1979 can be found here: Data Display and Delivery | Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array 20c Isotherm depth is probably the easiest variable to hone in on.

Weather got a lot nicer this afternoon. Clouded up and cooled off thankfully.

Anybody got any data pn how often super niños spawn double-dip la ninas?

We go 0.8" in less than an hour, though I don't know how much of that was skewed by the hail.

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM.

Here are the Max Temp forecasts

Euro weeklies for July 13-20 lol

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products.

I get excited when there is hail lasting several mins, 85 mins is ott. Same with the cloudburst. Purple rain & lightning glow. Dream shot. Also lasted.

Were they looking at BN op runs on monitors?

Lots of CPC long range forecasts for above average precip in the last month. Let's see if it happens! A lot of times they are actually too early with pattern.

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

Today's coyotes for anyone who is interested.

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

Yes it does in summer. It would be a Dewey flow. You don’t get 50’s and rains fir days in late June

wet doesn't mean it humid..

Not wet no . If it’s wet, it’s humid . If not it’s 82/55 type stuff

A lot of this gets lost in the miasma of whatever happens in this thread. Thanks and I agree while records could be set if things set up perfectly that contrast west to east is important in overall effects we will see in the CONUS. We have not been able to get the contrast of warm east cool west of the tropical Pacific for awhile. I would like to think a quicker onset of the Nino might play a role in the winter outcome as well.

cooler and wetter pattern looks to be coming up

I know it won’t happen this way (probably), but I’m gonna get grumpy if every front in the next 10 days passes at like 5am like today’s guidance wants to do

Thanks. Some of us have already been discussing ‘26-7 vs ‘97-8. On Saturday I posted that per the Euro progs, ‘26-7 is looking to evolve into a much less E based Nino than ‘97-8, which became the most E based Nino on record (back to 1951-2). When I refer to E based, I’m referring to the differences between 1+2 and 3 vs 3.4 and 4. This is what I posted: More on 97. Here were the monthlies: 1+2 3 4 3.4 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09 1997 7 25.59 3.63 27.90 2.09 29.37 0.47 28.86 1.56 1997 8 24.96 3.96 27.71 2.59 29.29 0.50 28.75 1.89 1997 9 24.69 3.96 27.74 2.84 29.44 0.68 28.85 2.13 1997 10 24.69 3.67 28.06 3.08 29.34 0.58 29.08 2.36 1997 11 26.12 4.47 28.37 3.27 29.39 0.69 29.12 2.41 1997 12 27.06 4.25 28.53 3.30 29.11 0.57 28.89 2.29 1998 1 28.12 3.55 28.74 3.08 28.95 0.64 28.93 2.38 1998 2 28.74 2.64 28.90 2.49 28.79 0.59 28.78 2.03 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)! The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2: Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies: 1+2: 3.9 3: 3.9 3.4: 3.7 4: 2.4 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

76 was the high here today.