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“The storm is forecast to blow into town Saturday night and stay through Sunday. It could drop upwards of 3 inches on a region still digging out after more than a foot of snow fell on Sunday and Monday.“ LOL

Check the AIgfs

Scott's just tuggin' on minion chode hairs with that. We're in the solar minimum for another 2 weeks. The sharding back of snow banks will begin in earnest after the 8th ..10th. Having said that, there was day light at 5:30 today ...I noticed this as I was leaving the gym. That was pitch dark just last week. We're on the slope - can't be denied. I also thought the sun coming through the S windows felt warmer on the face. It's just a fact of celestial mechanics and life.

@270 we get clipped on the GFS. Also just one week shy of sun angle season.

If you have a chance - how are streets in Columbia doing?

Right now its a big soup over Hudson's Bay All that kind of gets compressed as it rotates south, by a ridge pressing down They're also doing another hurricane hunters dropsonde mission this evening. Looks like it is trying to sample some of the atmosphere that the Pac is going to sling at is as it rotates down:

WTF is this rain storm in SC!?

It’s marginal but ngl… I took notice of the extra brightness today. Maybe it’s because it’s been awhile since I saw full sun, but the midday shadows are starting to hit different.

More like mid-November...

Agreed. Think pretty much everyone in NC/SC west of 77 into the upstate will do ok to good even without coastal help.

GFS not great for Upstate through NE Ga...several runs in a row - def need Mrs. G to kick west

November, August, same diff.

Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules. The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule. Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. These are the important factors to rate a model. It is not a king. Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong. Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast......... Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS...............

welp ... that's taking an anomalous track relative to the larger scale synoptic structure(s) ... but, sometimes weird shit happens. I think the background speed of the flow is a problem -

Leave it to the NAM to add mixing issues.

Can you repost that pic for us, in his honor? Thanks!

This reminds me of the winter of '77 in MD where we got a moderate snow of around 6" with a crust of ice followed by weeks of frigid and dry. The glacier lasted for weeks and January was an incredible -12 departure at DCA, but it lacked in the total snow department.

This is a great post! They usually always have some mega surprise. I talked about one that rolled thru here in 2012. 1-3 forecasted we got like 8. Probably the biggest flakes I’ve ever seen in my life. Like no joke shreds of paper.

Guaranteed the GFS OP doesn't verify with its Hop Scotching areas of LP .........crazy

August?? And Early August???

What’s your call up our way?

I think somehow the Plateau finds its way to 3-4" this weekend either with upslope or initial orographic lift w/ the main wave of precip.

Dead. Not waiting for 0z. This has nothing going for it. It’ll keep tugging on the weenies for a few more runs but not mine.

GFS pretty much holds steady. Another wild card is how anomalous this ULL will be. It will overproduce IMO.

Reminds me of 17-18 at the end of December. JB mentioned that the last half of February might have a strong STJ component along w/ cold. I tend to agree with him though I haven't looked at the Weeklies today. I kind of think nickel and dime stuff is the rule for right now. It is crazy cold with low wind chills outside right now. I really don't even want to think about the weekend cold!