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SREF MEAN is up to 4in at KAVL compared to 2 or so this AM.

I am not going to disagree with that - areas to my WNW ( and I mean within 30 miles and closer to the escarpment got pounded with ZR - we didn't really flip over until the last hour or 2 - That's the thing about models, it can be right for one neck of the woods and be off somewhere else along with other anomalies such as you described. I just know moving forward - the one that shows the longest duration of a dry slot - we gonna roll with that one!

End of the RGEM looked like it would’ve been ok… guess we’ll see when regular GGEM runs

No, Just being sarcastic, May want to calibrate the meter..........

We have failed many times in the past with wave spacing issues. I believe more so in a complicated Nina Northern stream dominated pattern. Thanks for the detailed explanation.

ICON has always been a miss.. GFS running and if that goes away from what its been showing then its a wrap. If its hold we still in the game. Pretty easy now

RGEM looked pretty good at 84...

It is, it's just an unwritten weenie rule to refrain from tossing out numbers at this point.

Was -2 at 10:15 last evening with some thin clouds. Temp then took a deep dive to -23 by 7 this morning. We're in a frost pocket but possibly being the coldest morning in NNE would be really weird.

1/28 12z Summary Total QPF ICON: -0 GFS:

The problem is every time the models start to make improvements they immediately take a step back

Trough induces like 5 lows to develop too as it gets to the VA/NC capes so it can’t congeal and gets booted east. That might be the model trying to resolve a low center or it might be real-Jan 2022 suffered from a double low dragging everything east. Hopefully by tonight 0z we start to see this turn around, otherwise I think the fat lady’s starting to sing. If this one doesn’t happen I’m confident there will be other threats.

Yeah I mean some of the early analogs were pretty potent. 1996, 2015, 2009. The ceiling is/was very high with this. Not sure if it still is though.

Nothing on radar but decent snow shower breaking out.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure the NAM got it right for the wrong reasons. The prevailing consensus on what I hear is that the low level cold air was so dense that it actually allowed refreeze just before it hit the ground. I saw several reports of tall trees with ZR accumulation at the top and then it was just converted to sleet at the ground. The NAM showed a deeper cold wedge and that was not quite what happened. Now, should that negate what took place and it's forecast? Honestly I'm not sure. But it still didn't quite nail it I don't think.

Longer range of the RGEM but a better look than the ICON at 500 84H

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-model-inputs

GOOFUS time

Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet

GFS is off and running. Good luck everyone

Henry's psychedelic Weather.

RGEM was still potent with the PV lobe, but was more suppressed up here in advance.

Biggest issue I see is the lack of a return flow out of the gulf ahead of this system. Not really sure a north trend of the ull will accomplish much aside from being a clean clipper unless we get some kind of a norlun trough involved. The best runs were mostly throwing moisture back from the Atlantic…which would be awesome but basically requires bombogenesis.