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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Iow, we'd have to find something else to argue about?....That shouldn't be hard! Lol Thanks to Weather Will in MA forum, JB posted the Canadian's snowfall map for November's run. -
Mine looks sad. It went south last weekend.
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I could go for some thunder. Seems like it's been a long time.
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It’s a warmer version of 15-16, absolute disaster
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
CANSIPS, like seasonal models in general, is highly deficient. I have the impression that it is one of the more deficient ones in general. But even the better seasonal models (like the Euro supposedly is, for example) have their deficiencies. In a way, I’m glad because if they weren’t deficient the seasonal models would be in agreement and would be pretty much right all of the time (assuming accurate initializations), and then there’d be far less of a need to have these intense forecasting discussions. Thus, there’d be far fewer than 233 pages ITT, for example. -
I know we joke, but in all seriousness hopefully it’s not too bad up there.
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BWI: 0.3” DCA: 0.3” IAD: 0.7” RIC: 0.1” SBY: 0.2” Precip won’t be the issue, timing it with cold will.
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No way... you're telling me there could be cold air or even snow sometime in the winter in the midwest? what a bold call!
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Snowfall and depth not great, though 1997-98 was ok at the summit. Numerous events were just cold enough for elevation snows. It was not good down low. 15-16, disaster, 82-83 disaster.
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October Climate Summary - Chester County Area. See details and overall rankings since 1890 below. We were slightly warmer than normal +0.8 and about average regarding precipitation. Through the 1st 10 months of the year we are running at 0.5 degrees below normal temperatures.
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
October Climate Summary - Chester County Area. See details and overall rankings since 1890 below. We were slightly warmer than normal +0.8 and about average regarding precipitation. Through the 1st 10 months of the year we are running at 0.5 degrees below normal temperatures. -
Balmy morning with humidity out there!! at 11am I am 60 degrees!
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You wonder if it ever opens or is shut wire to wire ?Certainly a possibility management is discussing
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Snowfall/depth
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Mild n wet for the start of Nov. Foggy with light rain currently, and plenty more on tap. Good to see.
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In terms of snow depth or temps?
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Waiting on the October number
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60s and 70s into mid nov on the gfs
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Do you know offhand what the Mansfield super Nino climo is?
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DLH Oct mean of 49.5 tied 9th warmest of 92 unique temps. Midpoint temp is 44.6. PWS near old wx bureau site in downtown DLH recorded 51.3. Precip of 1.90" was tied 80th wettest (tied 56th driest). Midpoint amount is 2.29". TH co-op Oct mean of 49.8 tied 12th warmest of 73 unique temps. Midpoint temp is 46.4. Precip of 2.16" was 61st wettest of 121 unique amounts. Midpoint amount is 2.16". Old wx bureau-PWS/DLH arpt mean temps 10/48 48.1/45.2 10/49 47.1/45.2 10/50 46.5/45.8 10/51 41.9/42.0 10/52 39.8/38.7 10/53 49.8/50.3 10/54 42.2/41.7 10/55 45.2/45.1 10/56 48.8/49.3 10/57 43.9/43.2 10/58 45.3/45.2 **** 10/23 47.4/45.6 10/24 52.0/50.1 * 10/26 51.3/49.5
