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They are on border of a yellow county and had rain all summer.

We are about to have a little fun with this puppy https://radar.weather.gov/station/kewx/standard Those pinks and whites are likely going to hit Buda head on. While you guys get to chill out with some cool weathers.

Could the nor’easter phase with the cane?

How is your family holding up with the ongoing awful drought? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Get this passed Jamaica. The timing is so key. The pattern screams close pass or capture. The nor’easter makes it so hard to differentiate systems. Are the models showing the nor’easter hit as a mask for the capture?

Nighttime QLCS nightmare Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Shear is modeled to relax significantly. There may still be some light mid-level shear, but not enough to prevent a major hurricane given other environmental features. The real key here is the eventual position of the center when the steering currents change. Land interaction will be the only significant deterrent to high-end intensity, such as where Melissa is positioned when it begins the slow turn north. Upwelling isn't going to be much of a factor until it has already reached MPI, if Melissa goes through a stall or slow crawl during its northward turn, as OHC is deep in that part of the Caribbean.

Dropped to 32 this morning

Yea my sis in law was about 10 miles south

But we all know, that we just don’t know.

I don't think Melissa is home free just yet. Shear is still over the system and it's tilted at the midlevels. Upshear convection has done wonders in organizing the system, but Melissa needs one more convincing push to consolidate its inner core in order to commence RI

we just don't know who will know?

Fort worth just had a tornado slam downtown Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Caught a glimpse of a cool looking crescent moon peaking thru the Great Lakes inspired clouds closely following sunset.

I remember it being a bunch of wimpy snow events up here. Pretty sure New Orleans had a bigger snowstorm than Frederick. It was a winter, but nothing memorable imo.

If you haven’t noticed, a massive storm heading to rapid intensifying is about to wallop Jamaica.

I'll take the add, but pass on the subtract.

As someone else who also hates the spread of misinfo, especially when it is done purposefully to overhype/get more attention and sell more of a product, I fully endorse his post about this error about the AMO. Spreading misinfo on the internet is a pet peeve of mine. We’re in the Age of Misinfo, sadly. It’s the least we can do to try to reduce the spread of it. Even unintentional errors should be corrected. Keep in mind that there are numerous less informed guests that read these threads. So, we’re not just targeting members in our attempt to make corrections.

Oh the Euro Control...if only it could control itself with snowfall forecasts.

NHC always plays it safe. I think this nukes and goes to 165-170. If they are at 150 now then that tells me the sky is the limit

It's forecasted to become a major cat 4 with 150 MPH winds.

I’m talking about wholesale local hemisphere

An AO-/NAO-/PNA+ blocking regime is in place. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. It will turn somewhat cooler this weekend. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s. The unseasonably cool weather will continue into at least the middle of next week. There is a possibility that the closing days of October into the opening days of November could experience a significant multi-day rain event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +24.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.566 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

WB latest weeklies control first week of December....

Its like that with everything on every subject. Pick who you want to follow. If people want to follow accounts with wrong info, so be it. Eventually with being wrong, people will stop following. You seem to let it bother you. No need to lecture us here. Who here is posting useless garbage? I dont really read it here unless one of you guys bring it up for some reason. Not sure why these people are even brought up. You guys bring their crap into a perfectly fine thread here.