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12z euro doesnt look bad at all through 63

The nap is fantastic

Are the 12z runs the first with the recon data fully included?

Chances for a major winter storm on the southside seem to be diminishing. For us to see a good storm we need it to travel NE along the coast so we can have that banding set up over top us. With out that, we will be battling dry air that is being pumped in from the high. UKMET shows a possible solution. I can’t remember the year, maybe 07-09 we had similar ULLs moving to the south of us and models and local Mets were calling for 4-6 inches or 4-8 inches for the southside a day before the event. There may have been two storms rather close to each other. One got some flurries in to the southside and the other one was partly cloudy here. Both cases NE and eastern NC received measurable snow. The lows basically were kicked east out to sea allowing dry air to win. Rooting for the low to develop just off the coast and move NE so we can score. Hate to waste the cold and not get a good one. We’ll see what happens the rest of the day as the new runs come in.

Euro AIFS is a good 5-10” snow for WNC. Regular Euro is similar a smidge east from last run but not bad.

Courtesy of Bouncycorn. This is a 10:1 so multiply by 1.5 to 2.

Is Tim right ? Or cocked? https://x.com/surfskiweather/status/2016913994129240283?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Pain. Thankfully Euro AI looks much better

I'm getting my first colonoscopy Monday (true story)....it won't be very pleasurable, but I'll be fascinated by tracking every twist and turn of the scope on it's journey!

Looks like it. We were colder than average last Dec - Feb too, even though I don't know if all 3 months were below average.

So? Discussing modeling, forecasting, weather in general shouldn't be looked down upon just because you're not getting snow, particularly when it pertains directly to the system the thread is about. I get being frustrated by the overwhelmingly likely outcome of the storm, I just don't think its right or fair to talk down to or mock people who are in good faith actively discussing aspects of the modeling/atmosphere directly pertaining to its evolution/modeling, etc. If thats not how you meant it to come across, I apologize, but as someone who has been doing directly what you were lamenting, thats the way it seemed

Big increase from GSP:

585dm in Salt Lake City in the dead middle of Winter! Quite a Winter they are having out there in the Rockies and West coast, for a much of the area it's the #1 warmest Winter on record to date (since Dec 1). Makes me nervous about a Stronger El Nino next year.

Euro a decent tick west at H5 hr42. Heights a little flatter over NE

Looks like we've got a shot at all 3 met winter months having below average temps?

So far it hasn’t…looks to have staying power this go around.

EURO holding steady so far. Images to follow!

winter mode set to on for that run gfs run either way, def no signs of winter losing grip over the eastern us any time soon and probably for the best, don't want all this cold staying bottled up and pissing all over our april

If we use 100:1 ratios we have a decent snowstorm

5.3 degrees for the low today Currently 18.3 degrees

This would have been the 3rd Sunday in a row with snowstorms had it panned out. And just as a reminder..two weeks ago, that Sunday deal was a gonner until 0z Saturday morning(overnight Friday into Saturday), when modeling all jumped on board for a hit, rather than a miss. Now, I think this is toast too…and certainly not saying this is gonna happen here, but it did two weeks ago. So those of you hanging on Until Friday night overnight is very reasonable.