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Be nice if we could ditch this 80s vibe for the next decade. At some point we're heading south probably around 2037, so hopefully things change for the better. The other half has severe S.A.D. so I agreed we'd go after I retire. I guess I'll need to practice your mindset lol

Anthony, Thanks. Indeed, I realize that. The difference is that the one I posted is the official RMM that will go into the records together with all since 6/1/1974, the others that are already in the record book for folks like me to analyze. The ones you posted won’t. I’m not sure why they differ, but I prefer the Australian RMM. The ones you posted will be later essentially be forgotten by history.

Definitely going to come down to where the relatively narrow band of frontogenesis sets up. It's going to be cold-cold, so the ratios should be quite decent with any kind of moderate snow growth under convergence. It's only about two to three tenths of precip total for AGH. Have to make it count because it could be the last look at snow until towards New Year's or into 2026. Christmas Week is looking too warm.

Well we’ve got 0.0 in much of the region SE of HFD to ORH line halfway thru one of the 3 winter months. A rarity . 1” would be welcomed

If I somehow get 2 inches it’ll last three days. Wow deep winter.

Way different than these plots

"pile" south/north... a steaming pile?

I get invested. I could use this about now. I’m done getting bent over and having Kevin’s Craftsman tractor rammed into my cheeks.

Decent shot I am in a corridor with least snow in New England after Sunday.

Indeed, in Dec it is for the E US close to the worst, if not THE worst along with phase 6 as the image below shows. However, this is only a VERY weak phase 5 (not too far from the center of the circle) and thus isn’t nearly as bad on average as phase 5 is outside of the circle (it’s probably close to neutral):

Agreed & there is still plenty of model variability at this range. I like our chances for a solid Advisory level 1 to 3 inch snow chance with a few lucky spots getting 4 inches. Ratios should be favorable to max out whatever amount of precip we can get.

29 and light snow

It’s weather having a little one now and another on the way all I do now is keep an eye on it and not get emotionally invested. As one who plows snow it would be great to get snow but it is what it is and there are plenty of other positives with each day.

Yes agree, especially south of 84.

For the past few days, meso models and even globals advertised a finger-like lake effect snow band getting into NNJ this evening. And it has verified as advertised. Count me as impressed.

LMAO. Hawaiian weather in dca for Xmas. Late dad born in Hawaii, we always said mele kalikimaka first thing Xmas morning after we got up. I'll never forget that...

It seems so tenuous with the guidance split, but then I think we’re in a scenario where mid level magic would bring a solid coating at least even if we do get a messenger shuffle. Totally get the angst in MA but for CT I think this looks…I dare say decent. As long as folks aren’t thinking we’re going to trend to a warning event. Which I know nobody here does lol.

Just reading the latest. Brutal. As if we are all new here.

Yet another snowy evening out there. Everything's dusted up pretty good - maybe 1/4". From radar I suspect parts of western or northern Morris county have accumulated 1/2" - 1" this evening. These minor events help soothe the snowstorm deprivation angst.

Easy is not a word I've used frequently the last few years... I do like the tight low/mid level thermal gradient, and know if we can force enough convergence into that gradient, it would produce a decent snowfall? But I need to see consistent guidance trending that way. If I do, I'll move from a general 1 to 2 to a call to a 2-to-4-inch forecast, biased east and southeast. I'll be working from the Cape this weekend, so I expect to see snow even if CT underperforms.

Snowing lightly here now

The best are those in SNE that are actually positive. Every year since 2022. While I sit back like the fat kid on Stand By Me watching them puke all over each other in the pie eating contest.

Yeah it looks like we’re saturating a little quicker than some upstream areas based on MRX radar.

I will be in attendance