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  2. dseagull
    I suggest you read the actual legislation, prior to what will soon become common knowledge. SOE declarations are an avenue for misappropriation of funds, and this has only emboldened those in power to declare them more frequently. While they absolutely do open the doors for federal funding, they simultaneously allow for interstate funding to be reallocated. It's not what you may believe it is. It occurs across party lines.
  3. NorthArlington101
    18z GFS is dangerously close to launching the Digital Snow Thread at 384…
  4. wthrmn654
    Eps at 18z had some clusters to the left of placed center .
  5. high risk
    Seems to be setting up a regional model vs global model battle. Good to see multiple CAMs in the 00Z suite give much of us at least 0.5" out of this event.
  6. WxWatcher007
    Oh it’s a lot of fun lol
  7. wthrmn654
    Is the nam trying to merge Jerry into the system?! Or am I seeing things
  8. Jackstraw
    Yeah thats about what we got from this last system. Threaded the needle N and S big time. With no measurable precip until fantasy range on the models here's to hoping the precip rubber band bounces back with sub freezing temps and as snow! Buddah knows, after last winter, we are way overdue for a bomb storm this coming winter!
  9. Weather Will
    WB OZ 12K NAM and 3K
  10. powderfreak
    Been sustained 20mph with gusts to 35 here on the OBX shore. We see this at the summits but the vast majority of inland locations don’t see this… the ocean front sustained 20kts on the dunes is fun weather. Cant imagine what a true 40kts+ sustained feels like off the ocean. The sustained part is important… it’s not gusts.. the air is just always moving at that speed at all times.
  11. Stormlover74
    Nam cut back but focus is on south and western areas
  12. FPizz
    Definitely saw some "damage " on some plants here today. Pretty sure growing season ended for my garden. Don't care about cities, they have had fake temps for decade.
  13. JenkinsJinkies
    Wow, I literally called it before you posted these.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Our most recent good Winters Classic 3-wave cold N. Hemispheric pattern (vs 1 warm-AO) setting up in the Fall.
  15. Picard
    There is a lot of crap on X about this storm on X - seems like a lot of wannabes trolling for more followers. NWS was bullish on their X post at 6 pm - they still have my area at 2-2.5" of rain. Not sure about that.
  16. Today
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    360hr 12z EPS.. this is not what you want to see in the Pacific/Alaska, but these correlations are like 54-55% going into the Winter, If anything it I think it just cancels out the wall-to-wall blowout good Winters like 02-03, but doesn't do so much for the Winters in between.
  18. Weather Will
    WB 18Z RRFS just came out. Good test for the new model.
  19. Weather Will
    WB 0Z NBM...
  20. IrishRob17
    Thank you for proving my point. I’d say that’s a no, at least not with government attorneys and/or emergency services.
  21. WinstonSalemArlington
    Chilly Halloween
  22. dendrite
  23. Hitman
    I gave in on the heat (not the oil furnace only the heat pump) this morning. It was chilly.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's really about as close of a match as you ever are going to get, the only place in the world that was really different was south of South America.. I think after the Solar Flares in May 2024, the Earth went into a pattern. A lot of this is described as +AO, but that pattern continues now going into the cold season I think. The 4-corners High pressure wasn't as strong this Summer as last, and that did show tendency to become +PNA last Winter, so maybe not so much +PNA this Winter, but 24-25 is a good analog going forward.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I personally think a cold October is better for a cold/wet Winter, just by common sense. I kept a weather journal starting in Sept 2002, and I was surprised looking back at it that it snowed 4 times in October 2002. The data though, going back to 1948, Oct -EPO/+PNA is good for snow at about a +0.2 correlation, and +EPO/-PNA is bad for snow at a -0.2 correlation. The Atlantic has an opposite correlation though (-NAO Oct usually begets +NAO Winter, and +NAO Oct usually begets -NAO Winter), so that's where the confusion comes from.. but I bet over 200 years, not 76 years, there would be no inverse NAO correlation.
  26. Sundog
    I hate this small gap in modeling during this time. I need more reasons to be duped into thinking this is coming west.
  27. Sundog
    Well either way they're not going to need it lol
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