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I think its a little bit of both. Models touched on the right idea over 10 days ago when they wanted to cut the storm west of us. Gfs had that, just too extreme with 80” snowfall in PA. That’s characteristic of ninas. But then they went way south with all that cold. We still have the cold, but models returned to their original idea.

My ignore list is growing by the minute

Just need to root for the best model in the world and its AI companion. I guess if we’re down to the end here, it’s a good teammate to have.

None of this will make a young buck of a weenie feel better...

Yeah it amps more but it juices the thump which is what the tradeoff was kind of supposed to be! The CAMs just want to give us the worst of both worlds.

Increasing odds of busting low with more sleet is hardly what I'd call silliness...but you're right we hangry, lol

I think the Jan 2016 storm would be the most recent. That's the storm with 35" I recorded. I know at the time the snow started early Saturday morning my temperature was 17 degrees. I can't remember precisely where the temp was at the end, but it couldn't have been any higher than the low 20's.

For those that haven’t ventured outside yet (eg, you don’t have a dog), it’s a legitimate ice box. I’m gonna say it now…the nam is full of ish. I’m going with the euro.

Dark and grey down here. Winds out of the ENE around 10 MPH gusting to 15.

Gfs laughs at Nams

Heavy snow by 1:00 with sleet into far southern NJ

Nice! I’ve been using this one this week..:

Are you thinking Monday is light snow all day with an additional 1-3 for most and maybe more along coast and E facing hills?

Ready for it to snow. This was a tough week of tracking. Sucks that we couldn’t maximize what was on the table, but hopefully we come out with something that sticks around for 2 weeks. My guesses (snow/sleet): DCA: 5.2” IAD: 5.8” BWI: 5.7” mby: 6.2” (4.5” snow) I feel like the max south of the M/D line will be relatively low - something like 9”.

Will finish Jan with <0.50" precip, and <2" of snow. Looks like the first 1/3 of Feb will be trash as well. No sign of a wetter pattern anywhere in sight.

i doubt that reaches the ground, it's very dry. I'd say 7am start time in the city proper

GFS is a bit more QPF in the thump over 6z. About 0.1” more in DC at H27. Waiting for sounding to come in to see when we’d flip but 0.7” QPF by 15z in DC.

is there anything we can do about any weather?

Pretty big nudge stronger and NE with the 850mb low on the GFS.

I mean it could be IC. This is probably the best example I could find on YT with parhelia Learn where the coldest rad spots in your area are and which ones are the quickest to fog out. You were on a lake so that’s probably a good spot. What was the temp there?

@Ellinwood updated his forecast, but still had PA looking good! Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.

Gfs decent thru 7am

I'd say 3-4". I was driving through Oaks/Collegeville on Rt 422. It was a weird driving experience. Steering the car just felt funny and strange... 11F/DP -5