All Activity

HRRR through 7:00am. Should have a few hours to go beyond this.

19 in North Dakota while it's 71 in South Dakota is nuts

Warmth maybe showing signs of backing down and/or retrograding SW in the longer range.

Ain't no hopium about it. Never a guarantee for snow especially yall that live in a snow hole.

Hopium back in the forums? I’m all for the cold but PLEASE let those that have been snow starved finally Cash in

Its a total flip of the pattern being advertised yesterday to today. The 500mb look is just ridiculously different...a flip if there ever was one.

The old 10-15 day EPS rolled into the new 7-12 day forecast from the EPS. Again and again we've seen this especially this season and yes I'll die on this hill. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I grew up in Kinnelon, the next town south, but I went to Butler HS. If I'd been a year younger, I'd have been in the first graduating class of Kinnelon HS. Most of Butler is 200-400 feet lower than where we lived, and that difference occasionally was dramatic. The ice storm of Jan 8-9, 1953 ripped trees apart near home and took out our power for 6 days. Most of Butler had cold RA. In late March 1961 we had a paste bomb to cap our 100"+ winter, 5-6 sloppy inches outside the HS, most coming in 4 hours. School closed at noon but no buses heading south so a bunch of us walked the 5 miles, finding 12" at home. Cut the Christmas tree, now waiting for the water in the stand to freeze before I try to do anything else with it.

According to Scooter and some others nothing . Missed again by miles . Today was cold enough here. Just not enough qpf . 1/2” has to get to Xmas morning . Have fun there with this tonight , can tell you’re jacked up. I sure would be

This Afternoon Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Wednesday Snow, mainly before 11am. High near 27. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 11. Calm wind. Christmas Day A chance of snow before 1pm, then isolated snow showers between 1pm and 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. May even get a bit of luv Christmas Day.

I didn't start the thread so we all know this storm is over before it even begun. Just kidding! I tried analyzing the difference between the GFS and Euro and while I am able to make some conclusions on what we want to see change there's a rather large feature that I am just not smart enough to know what it does. Starting off with the Euro we can see four distinct features; the first is the departing trough off to the east which acts as confluence forcing the storm south, the second is the shortwave itself, the third is the mid latitude ridge over the central plains, and the final piece is the energy north of our shortwave. So, what I do understand are how the players 1 (departing storm east of Canada) and 3 (mid-lat ridge) are impacting our shortwave and subsequent storm. In order to get the suppressed storm that somehow manages to precipitate cold stuff over us (I'm not even getting into ptype here) we want the player 1 to exit slower and further south as this helps suppress the flow in front of our shortwave. As many previous posters have said the 500 height lines act as train tracks for our storms to follow (which is evident if you would play this map through time). Additionally, a further southwest player 1 helps trap in our high (which is already displaced too far north for our liking) better. Adding onto getting our 500 height lines further south we need the mid latitude ridge over the central US to be further west based and further south as well. A comparison of the Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) 500 height anomalies shows the difference players 1 and 3 makes quite nicely. Notice the GFS has a flatter and more western ridge and a more intense storm off Canada. This is where my real knowledge of the subject ends as now I get to discuss players 2 (our shortwave) and 4 (northern energy) interacting. Once again we will use the vorticity charts to highlight these differences between the models as GFS has these two players interact which seems to favor a more north/south tilted storm and precip axis which interacts positively for us. Additionally, the GFS has a far wetter storm and I wonder if it could be the extra vorticity helping out? Once again GFS on bottom and Euro on top To be honest though I'll be in NYC due to an interesting set of circumstances (home alone 2 style) so I think I'll win out either way!

These 2 are crazy lucky someone hiking at 10 pm found them. Two Mass. teens, one allegedly ‘heavily intoxicated,’ rescued from Mount Monadnock Authorities say the 18-year-olds were unprepared for their night hike https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2025/12/22/two-mass-teens-one-allegedly-heavily-intoxicated-rescued-from-mount-monadnock/

Snowing steadily, roads covered immediately.

Radar appears to be more like the HRRR than the NAM's. For whatever that's worth.

You'll even the tables somewhat on Friday.

Yeah...hovering over the pixels in the Yukon on the map below, there's a modeled -71F at hour 312. I keep an eye on modeled temps up there in the winter, and seeing anything colder than -65F on the GFS (since it's a global model and therefore doesn't capture the local terrain/cold spots very well) is extremely rare. While I agree it could be driven by model feedback, it's still very impressive to see. As for ground truth...I believe the coldest temp in Alaska since 2000 is -64F in early Feb. 2024. So, if these modeled temps come close to verifying, I'd argue it would be the coldest temps in 25+ years in that part of the world. Great article on Alaska's 2024 cold outbreak here: https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/alaskas-2024-cold-snap Also, for anyone interested in Alaska weather & climate, this is a great blog: https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

EPS supports the Euro and that's not a really warm look in the long range. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New:

This has been a tough spell here

Still have time to work on it says the average weenie... 36F

-SN has commenced. 29.9°

Let’s go with its correct and be happy for a minute. Enjoy the DB. Happy Holidays!

New NAM's.