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  2. Good day to go out and grab yourself some firewood.
  3. Don and others, This was posted by JB 2 hours ago at WxBell: “Continued Climate Community Denial Dr Viterito writes: This is the latest ‘buzz’ in the climate community. The BBC just ran an article on it, and the conclusion of the Berkeley Research Group is that the warming can be partially explained by a reduction in cloud cover due to reductions in sulfur dioxide, a reflective aerosol. Improved Chinese air quality is also listed as a possible cause. Of course, the fallback position is ALWAYS what's happening above our heads and NEVER what is beneath our feet. So, it's business as usual as there is no mention of geothermal inputs into the system. First and foremost, the East China Sea is the locus of the warming. As Google Gemini posits: Hydrothermal activity is widespread in the East China Sea, particularly in the Okinawa Trough, a back-arc spreading basin. Here, seawater circulates through the oceanic crust, becoming superheated and carrying unique chemical and biological properties to the seafloor. This activity is concentrated in the central and southern parts of the trough and is often associated with volcanic and tectonic activity. Notable sites include the Yokosuka vent field, which is the deepest and hottest known in the area. And a huge rise in seismic activity has been recorded this past year. According to All Quakes (East China Sea Earthquakes Archive: Past Quakes in 2025 | AllQuakes.com), there has been a large amount of volcanic/seismic activity in 2025. Here are the summary statistics for the East China Sea: In 2025, East China Sea has had 14,770 quakes of magnitudes up to 5.9: 50 quakes above magnitude 5 271 quakes between magnitude 4 and 5 1,375 quakes between magnitude 3 and 4 3,197 quakes between magnitude 2 and 3 9,877 quakes below magnitude 2 that people normally don't feel. Keep in mind, we still have 10 weeks left in 2025. If we compare this with the FULL YEAR statistics for 2024, we see the following: In 2024, East China Sea has had 12,143 quakes of magnitudes up to 6.4: 1 quake above magnitude 6 23 quakes between magnitude 5 and 6 382 quakes between magnitude 4 and 5 655 quakes between magnitude 3 and 4 2,365 quakes between magnitude 2 and 3 8,717 quakes below magnitude 2 that people normally don't feel. That is, we have a 21% increase year over year, and if we adjust for the remaining time left this year (i.e., extrapolate out to the end of 2025), we would see a 53% increase, or an extrapolated total of roughly 18,500 seismic events for the year. More importantly, according to AllQuakes.com, the average yearlystatistics for the East China Sea are as follows: East China Sea has a high level of seismic activity. On average, there are about 6,600 quakes every year. That is, the extrapolated value for 2025 will be nearly three times higher than an average year for the East China Sea! And we aren't even factoring in the extraordinarily high vales for the fore-arc basins east of Kamchatka I discussed in the PSI article a few weeks ago. That activity will impact the temperatures of the Kuroshio Current as it makes its way into the north central Pacific. We have to keep plugging away at this!! Art You cant make this stuff up”
  4. The Catoctin Cloud Magnet (CCM) has been a force this morning...and very visible on satellite. Looks like some thinning in progress, though. Hoping to get another round of sun today before the line of showers and stuff arrives after sunset.
  5. That might be the greatest invention ever made. I love those.
  6. All good points. For clarity, I'm okay with cold and dry. I just cannot tolerate a warm winter. There is something so very unwholesome about 70s in the dead of winter in these parts.
  7. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    Yeah I’d take 21-22 again for sure as Ninas go. The odds of dead ratter are just baked in with a Nina. And outside the eastern shore, the ceiling is like 80% of climo.
  8. I nuked about a dozen of those fuckers with the electric tennis racquet yesterday. very satisfying.
  9. Tbh I don’t actually consider 21-22 a dud, some places cashed in nicely and those who didn’t had just plain bad luck. However, the chance for another dud is very real and unfortunately that’s how the data is presenting itself currently. But I think that would be too easy. I believe there will be a surprise X factor (maybe the NE pac warm blob?) that throws a wrench into the standard nina/-pna climo progression to keep us in the game.
  10. In Selbyville DE visiting my sister. Was a beautiful day yesterday, today shaping up to be just as lovely ahead of whatever rain comes
  11. What's the problem with a 7.69% accuracy rate??
  12. Today
  13. The following seems to describe their M.O.: 1) If presented by counterarguments, they largely ignore the counterarguments or, in infrequent cases of response, make broad claims that the arguments are incorrect, they shift goal posts, etc. 2) If presented with data and links to the data or scientific literature that anyone can access, that crosses a "red line." They seem to have a mortal fear about others having the ability to access the data or literature, perhaps because they know that their own view is hollow unsupported conjecture. Access to data is far more dangerous to their view than simple counterarguments.
  14. Finished with a much appreciated 2.07", a significant overperformer to be sure. Northwest winds gusting over 35mph with that deform in Chicagoland. Definitely would be pretty wild if were the white stuff.
  15. There's little reason to be positive for my area. We haven't reached winter storm warning criteria since 2022 and that was the only time it has been reached since 2018. This is the biggest snow drought in modern history for this area. 16 inches of snow in 7 winters. 11 of that in one storm. Take that storm away and it's 5 inches of snow in 7 winters. 4 of those winters with 0 snow. With the way this winter is setting up, I would be surprised to get a winter storm warning event.
  16. Who is ? Its only October . No one can get anything accurate this far out.
  17. Man three duds. Hope you're dead wrong.
  18. The MJO is really favorable for development in the Western Caribbean. We will just have to wait and see how much interaction there is with the trough forecast to be near the Great Lakes. Maybe the cutoff event last weekend was the beginning of a wetter pattern for our area.
  19. I’ve had my eye on 17-18 as well, in addition to 21-22. I’m on the fence about 22-23, but if I’m going to include that analog I feel the need to balance that with either 13-14 or 24-25, maybe even both. Sensibly for us that might mean a couple of months with NN/BN temps and fairly dry, and at least one torch month. Hopefully we get some blocking and some moisture to keep things interesting tracking-wise.
  20. One last mild above normal temperature day today before some showers arrive after midnight tonight and turn us back to below normal temperatures for the rest of the upcoming week. Rain tonight looks like between 0.25" to 050" across the area. The only other chance of rain this week looks to be Tuesday night. Highs looks to be in the 50's and lows in the 30's for much of the late week period.
  21. One last mild above normal temperature day today before some showers arrive after midnight tonight and turn us back to below normal temperatures for the rest of the upcoming week. Rain tonight looks like between 0.25" to 050" across the area. The only other chance of rain this week looks to be Tuesday night. Highs looks to be in the 50's and lows in the 30's for much of the late week period.
  22. https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1979560684976500739?s=61
  23. Got it! You can't find any proof in the Chester County data to undermine the quality of the data....unless we go hundreds of miles away - check!!
  24. The operational ECMWF certainly does before bringing a captured tropical cyclone into Maine and then northwestward from there. The proverbial pieces could be available. It will be interesting to see if we wind up getting tropical-enhanced rainfall, even if just through a frontal passage.
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