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Next up for a light snow chance is another Clipper potential around New Year’s Day.

The NAM at one point had Long Island changing to mostly sleet and barely any snow. It failed out here with the thermals big time.

Happy for the south shore crew. Love to see you guys clean up.

Amen brother

That’s due to the weather records not going back far enough in time on Long Island. Other spots like Newark with records back as far as the 1840s showed that something much closer to wall to wall cold and snow was the norm. The 30 year average seasonal snowfall at Newark was 43.7” with an average winter temperature of 30.4”.

It happened a lot from 2010-2015. those 5 years had many storms of snow on snow. I want to say 2014-2015? Insane snow cover and repeated snow in snow. I think at one point we had snow from like 5 different snows down at once.

BAM Weather @bam_weather · 1h The type of set-up into the second week of January won't be one that favors major arctic cold, but can offer up increased winter storm potential for the East Coast. No signs of this strong -NAO set up breaking down any time soon. Top analogs into January based on the Polar Vortex and Tropical Forcing also support the idea of a favorable set-up for snow in the lower OH/TN Valley regions and the Mid-Atlantic. Eventually as convection once again traverses the equatorial Pacific Ocean, we should see the Alaskan ridge (-EPO) rebuild and allow for a more widespread/consistent shot of cold air across the US mid-late January. The EPS Weekly is already hinting at this idea. Stay up to date with our Energy Reports on the pattern ahead here: https://bamwx.com/register/energy-commercial/

From the MA forum pattern thread...Interesting about the +NAO bias. I am pretty sure that Jon Wall was/is a longtime poster on the SE forum.

Nice 4 to 6 on 18z GFS on the 2nd

Going to be my first icer here. Elevation may put me in a warm spot given the temperature aloft.

Was that a question.................................?

GFS has 4 to 6 here the 2nd

A non hostile PAC only helps the -NAO to be more effective. Not asking for a +3 SD PNA but I wonder how well we get small snows with a PNA that hovers around neutral

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ...aka advisory should do it.. I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

All ensembles slowly build a +PNA ridge between 240-360 hrs. AK vortex quickly fades and retros west

There’s a few shots Wed— next weekend. Might only be one .. or possibly two different light events . Fast flow

I received 2.5" (maybe 2.8" figuring in compression), so I would naturally assume Central Park was not going to excced central Union County NJ (about 10 miles south/southwest of Newark Airport). But the storm was farther north and east, so the CPK measurement is not suspect, in my opinion...

Gfs has the NYD clipper - we are in business.

2nd

I still contend that the lack of snow in areas such as Union county NJ was that the center for the storm was too far north. Areas north and east of NYC got the jackpot. Without enough lift in my area, the storm dynamics fizzled. Had the storm been more intense, it would have easily overcome the "warm nose" and "dry slot". To reiterate an earlier post, we are mainly disagreeing over semantics.

NYD can be a 1-3” type deal

Does not happen often. 93/94 obviously 2/8 and 2/11 is the most memorable case. 95-96 I do not recall any really, seemed like the close together events were small and melted and the big ones had separation and we had a massive thaw too. 09-10 I think had a couple of instances.

Toss that 8 in Jewett city I was there maybe 6

We have had longer lasting December snowpack in the past with other 10”+ snowfall Decembers on Long Island without a big warm up and rain following the heavier snows. But these warm ups and rain following the heavier snows have become more common in December and the other winter months that we have had heavier snows. Unfortunately, Long Island weather records don’t go back as far as other spots across the region. But the snowfall this December isn’t that far from what used to be normal a spots with longer periods of record in the past colder climate era. Those colder era Decembers didn’t have the magnitudes of the warm ups with rain. So they had better snowfall retention for what fell relative to today.

Not much there.