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It has begun

Just checked 700 and 850 temps on the most aggresive runs and we're nowhere near the danger zone thank god I would have ended it

If I'm not mistaken, airport observers clear the board every 6 hours. Is that your understanding?

glad you fully explained your reasoning

On that note, it is bedtime.

This thing is going south. This has southern mid Atlantic and Boston/Cape special written all over it. Not one model is being “stubborn” showing us in the heavier snows. This is not our storm. Will the precip shield expand as we get closer? Sure, but we are not seeing more than 2-4” from this set up. It’s too cold. I can see the Carolina’s doing well even .

I do think it’s not quite as extremely cold as modeled. Obviously it’s still plenty cold, but it’s been consistently about 3-5 degrees warmer than modeling projected

did you edit this or am i hallucinating? i could have swore it said 17.5 when i looked at it last time. Either way it's ok I used @Spanks45 16.8, they are very similar either way.

Agreed idk how much better we can get but ill take any snow to help the seasonal total.

Jumping over here for a bit, pulling for the western trend. Might get ran out of town in the South Eastern thread!!

oooooooof

I imagine this is what it would look like if a nuclear weapon was detonated.

Just seeing snow with temps in the single digits and teens plus 850s that look like this gives me a tingly feeling

All hail the King, might it have benevolence upon us

if it transfers, more times than not the western half gets skipped over.

Just an evolution of the last couple GEFS. I got this from an individual on another weather site.

Did we ever get the wxnext full ensemble suit?

UKIE remains a "no".

We will know in the next 45 minutes or so

This is very nice to see.

it did yeah, you're right...just dont think well see much of an improvement at 00z (also based on what canadian did) but well see...just speculating of course

king euro ai?

still haven't seen a screenshot of the 18z run that isn't a single ensemble member.

GFS

The UK/Euro it seemed for most of the 2018-2025 period would often go opposite directions of each other alot in the D4-7 range, but this winter there has been more a tendency for them to generally follow one another for sure