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Unfortunately they are notoriously hard to discharge. On average, they persist for 33 days in winter, but can go longer. About 60 percent of the time they lead to a split or displacement of the Polar Vortex, and over 95 percent of the time an early AH saw the PV disturbed later in the season. A paper I read about them noted that there could be a connection to extreme weather after they break down. They used December '84 as an example. One formed on December 3rd, the PV was disturbed on December 30th, and the AH dissolved on January 4th 1985.

Ha, need fewer injuries, new plays teams don’t have on video to study Daniels, a slightly easier schedule, better defense, healthy star qb. Last year was a bit fluke-ish with a lot of luck for some of those wins.

I've been trying to think about what is "going wrong" with such a prolific -WPO to be talking about record warmth down my way. Do you know if a -WPO is typically good for the southern Plains? Is it perhaps atypical to have a -WPO paired with a -PNA or is that typical? I know when I look at the current pattern it seems reasonable to have a west coast trough downstream of that high but maybe sometimes ridging extends further southeast? Mostly just trying to build my understanding for this index.

13 IMBY picked up a dusting earlier from passing snow showers.

I’ve cleared so after being steady at 25.5 for hours I’m down to 24

Actually not the -QBO years with anykind of early strat warming. JAN is the coldest in that analog package. Will not be this year but just saying.

I know, but the result of that catastrophe is tattooed inside my eyelids.

High was only 35 today. Already down to 21. Looks like another possible night in the teens. Amazing for mid December.

16.2/11.7 at 10:30, still a slow drop.

The local mountains keep picking up a few inches of powder each day, so my older son and I headed up to Bolton Valley for a tour yesterday. We headed up to Bryant Cabin and did a slightly longer tour than the one I did on Saturday with my colleague who was visiting for work. There’s not much to add with respect to describing the fantastic conditions, since Mother Nature keeps the snow refills coming, that just about cancels out the settling of the powder, and the powder skiing stays great. Indeed, powder depths continue to top out around 30 inches in the 2,000-2,700’ range, and the main problem certainly isn’t in finding deep, dry, untracked powder, the bigger issue is often finding steep enough pitches to support the depth of all that snow.

The 12/13/25 WPO of -3.48 is the most negative WPO on any day in December since 12/25/1996! The only Decembers since 1948 with at least one day lower than -3.48 are: 1996, 1989, 1983, 1977, 1966, 1955

All good, and I definitely hear you. Speaking for myself (and possibly many others on the board), I don’t think people are saying that winter is over. People are just sad that winter is taking a break. For those who love winter like myself, we want it to look and feel like winter throughout DJF. Most people like warm weather, and I don’t mind it either…and that’s fine during the other 9 months of the year. I just want DJF to be sacred, especially December due to the short days and holidays…and mild temps during these months (even for a day or two) are annoying to me. I always say it’s more about the look and feel and tenor of the season, as opposed to just chasing a big storm. In some ways, it’s analogous to being a sports fan. You want your team to win every game, even though it’s not realistic. When you love something, emotion is more meaningful than logic. And I definitely get the logic piece, since I have a met degree. My career ended up going in a different direction, but it’s still one of my favorite hobbies, mainly driven by the beauty of winter.

It wants to snow. Another little wave moving through this evening. Persistent -SN.

That 2020 scenario was born out of a completely different synopsis.

Calm cold crunchy, I'll see you at the top.

Assuming no shallow cold air sneaks down my way (certainly possible) we are probably going to have a good shot of record heat on Christmas. It's a surprisingly low record at 73 F in Tulsa, very doable given the pattern.

1962 was -7.7. 1989 was -13.3. Both also bonkers, by my memory

Adam, I am going to say this once and that’s it. Do not reply to my posts or make comments. I do not like you or respect you as a human being. You claimed I am unhinged, I’m going to be upfront with you. I do in fact have a few screws loose just like you do. I am the one guy on this board who is arguably more unhinged and insane than you, which is saying something. So pissing me off is not in your best interest. It would be better for both of us if we ignore each-other from now on. You do you, I’ll do me. Understood? If you are rude to me, I will go even farther than I did last time. If I perceive someone as being rude to me, there is not a line I won’t cross because I do not care about laws, social norms and conventions. I don’t like that comment you made, but I’ll let you off with a warning. Your ENSO and strictly weather related posts are one sided, but they add value. Stick to that, and remove the know it all attitude and rude replies. It’s not acceptable.

Agree

makes you wonder none of the local forecasts mentioned it. they said it was going to clear up this afternoon nothing about even clouds let alone a night shot of snow.

And it could end up being warm. But in the end, it is just something none of us can control. The thing that will irritate me when tracking winter patterns....a model flip away from a cold, storm pattern. In this case, the chinook pattern has been well advertised. What I want to see is that pattern to be muted. Modeling is apparently going to miss at least two cold fronts...maybe more. Those fronts are getting colder as reality approaches. That is a sure tell that modeling is correcting. There is also a bit of a disconnect between 500 and the surface. So, interesting times ahead. Prim climatology is still almost a month away. And yes, I could use a few warm days just to thaw out. It has been BN here since Thanksgiving...I need a break from the cold. You won't hear me say that often!

this is like the 3rd so called warm up they forecasted for long range the others never really happenend I highly doubt most of the usa is this warm a ridge never has actually been across the whole lower 48

After King Grinch in 2020 I’m always gonna be wary of a big cutter wiping pack to bare ground, but this looks like it’s been trending toward quite a blast of cold at the end without high end warmth here. Maybe some backend snow.

100% -8 for the month is bonkers.

I have a sneaking suspicion looking at satellite that places in N Baltimore and higher elevations of Harford co are plummeting right now.