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The 36 hour RAP performs very well… Said no one ever …

The GEFS still in disagreement but looking across guidance it’s likely the one that’s wrong. The bulk of guidance has an MJO phase 8 look to it with significant cold anomalies across NA during the last 10 days of Jan. If that’s the case it looks like a repeat of December to first week of Jan pattern…Not a fan…. Cold and dry here…

that also helps Sunday right what I’ve seen

12z HRRR looking good

I bet my boots that the December 30, 2000 storm was like that. NWS promised (IIRC) 3 to 6 inches inside the Beltway - what we got was *clear skies!* Epic level model fail.

Winter is back bay

Shove Saturday to the Tug.

It’s way too far out for that. Toss those fantasy maps from yesterday though. We’re not getting double digit below 0s at 18z. lol If you really want something shattering we’re going to need to be slamming -35C 850s into NE. I don’t trust those d13 uber shallow arctic airmass progs advecting in on NW flow over the mtns.

Yeah, same.

Kevin got mad at me for saying WoR but that’s what it looked like. It’s just where the better dynamics are.

12z hrrr matched euro and ukmet for northern Maryland esp ne for a good little snow

20.3 was the low here

I still think you could see some snow, but I think the trough orientation is sharpening a bit more which brings the main snow band NW.

12z Hrr has a pretty good band coming through 12z-16z tomorrow. Has up to 1" snow depth near the MD/PA line.

Snows all weekend adding up to a whopping 1”.

Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol

I’d be OK with where we are if the cold was here. No cold, mid day, light rates… Think some folks will be fighting for an inch between central Georgia and Richmond but that’s about it

The way it looks on the GEFS we could initially have some rain/ice and then as the deeper cold comes in we end up getting some snow. Pretty loaded look though with all that moisture. Verbatim this would be snow on the mean for the region with the colder air in place.

The state plow guys are masters at dropping the blades for fantasy snow on RT 20! They went though with the blade down a couple nights back when they were laying treatment. We only had like 3 flakes, and they were slop

I don't think much will be happening until after the game... ride home might have some snow depending on how long you stay in the lot. I wish it was coming in sooner (if at all)

To me, it feels like next weekend is the most legit so far this season. The pattern seems to have more things going in our favor to finally give us some good snows for the majority of us. Feeling good about it

That's always where I've stood.

Enjoy this heat wave guys and gals because after today and tomorrow the cold air will REALLY get our attention

would love to go if someone wants to fund my trip

It's picking up downsloping winds aiding the warm nose...could it pin the cold against the plateau..possibly, but it's rare...nose would have to be really weak.