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looks like sun for an hour along the Pike

52 / 31 cooler today / overnight into tomorrow 48 hours with freezes possible (tonight/Wed night) before moderating Thu / Fri to and above normal. Great weekend on tap. Next week much above normal if no onshore tendency is missed and develops on subsequent forecasting. 70s - 80s maybe a stray 90 as Bluewave noted above in the extreme case 4/13 - 4/15. Beyond there overall warm a bit back of cut off potential / ULL but other than that overall warmer than normal and drier than normal the next 7 - 10 days.

Webb exhibits at times a tone that borders on being over the top to get attention. “Hilariously strong”?

1.5” unslanted?

Woke up to 28 degrees and a minor dusting of snow in my part of the Poconos this am.

Wetter in the winter. Drier in the summer. ". For much of the southeastern United States during the summer of an El Niño event, the climate is usually warmer and drier. " https://climate.ncsu.edu/learn/the-el-nino-southern-oscillation/

You must live in the greatest climo spot in the region Somehow always able to pull off accumulating snow. Like its mostly sunny here right now and you're ripping snow. There could be like 3 separate snow showers moving through the region, two of them happen to get you and somehow drop 1.5". You also always seem to get crushed with thunderstorms. the weather gods certainly love that area

Aren’t El Niños typically wetter on the east coast? With a total of 0.01” for April and no chance of rain till mid month at earliest, it could be dire straights around here unless we get a good soaking second half of month, not good

There are only a few snow reports trickling in so far. The highest is 5.5".

Heaviest of the season?

We’ll hit 90

This is wild its been dumping the last hour!! still going

I fully get that 1877-8 is as strong as any El Niño on record based on Nino 3.4 as Eric Webb’s and other tables show. But it’s the H5 maps that were shocking to see since I had never seen any H5 maps before the late 1940s. Now after reading what you posted above, I realize this 1877-8 H5 is no more than the equivalent of a wild educated guess as all it is based on is surface data as that’s all the only data they have.

Pounding aggies.

euro temps aren't ever correct. I would go with mid 80's tops

lol I was there last week as well, what an amazing place

By standard non-relative ONI convention, the strength index denotes 1.5 as the cut off for "strong" As I said, the modeling ( per CPC ) presently shows a cluster mean < than 1.5 (... granted, it's rising when the graph cuts off at the end of OND, only slowly). The problem is, RONI is a very necessary method for assessing how the ENSO modes might integrate/couple with the surrounding dispersion into the mid latitude pattern. It is less integrating, due to CC, for the purpose of discussion. But it's also not absolute... it's just an assessment tool. Those ENSO modes back before ~20 years ago took place in enough of a different global environment that a more linear approach was a better predictor. This is why the Relative ONI was constructed, because as the climate change accelerates ( frankly ) all these indices are either going to get suss or are already so. Anyway, CPC model mean rises to +1.3 or +1.4 but unfortunately the outlook cuts off before we know if mid winter rises beyond 1.5 ( probably so, just based on the trajectory of the graphical mean). However, laboring to 1.5, doing so during the Relative ONI methodology arm of a very coherent CC acceleration, doesn't smack as strong or super in the end hemispheric coherence. I think there's some excitement seeking - like another crowd emergent motif. Sometimes it just hits at the right timing, and it's vastly over popularized. It may in fact go on to rise to 2.8 ...becoming something special, but I wanna know what are the mathematical/analytic reasons.

Snowing in Methuen..

snowy ride down the pike to get to work, car covered

Trying to enjoy this last snow until Nov ‘27

Lol, +SN now.

Driving to work over the Berkshires was horrible. Some towns have packed it in with the sand and salt. If only my car was powered by expletives!

29.8° SN Poundtown now