All Activity

That exact same paragraph is carried over to this morning's AFD. "Latest guidance"? NWS and CWG disagree on storm chances today: NWS has a 40% pop for central Fairfax, CWG downplays it: "Can't rule out an isolated evening storm, especially north and northwest of the Beltway." Decided to live dangerously and leave the umbrella at home; let's see how that works out.

What a doosh . Wow

Another casual 1.3” overnight. 12.9” for August now

I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.

Yesterday evening, this northwest perimeter flow developed a strong storm in southwest Augusta. A couple locations received close to 2 inches of rain while a few miles away, little more than sprinkles.

Interesting...didn't know that. Confirms what I had already suspected about this December. Maybe that is why El Nino Decembers are usually warm....not so much about El Nino itself, but some of the intervals of -SOI that goes along with it...though, I guess it really doesn't matter.

More evidence that the ridge is operating independently of ENSO as we have seen this summer regardless of ONI, RONI, MEI, and SOI. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

Yes

Picked up 0.19" of rain this morning. A station 3 miles to my south received 0.86". Up to 8.25" for the month. Maybe we can reach July's total before this day is over. Only need another 0.15". Looking forward to amazing dew points this weekend especially after this hot and sweaty week ahead.

Eat shit

Did you have thunder?

beach weather for hearty New Englanders

That line blew up at I-84 as it moved east; got woken up to FL like downpours around 10.

No storms unfortunately

Congrats you to Dendy. Couple inches of boring rain

Did a downpour poo overhead? When I went to bed at 9, there was a shower line showing to the NW

If you look at ensembles it’s AN thru mid month especially this week and then after the 10th

0.08” in Sunday evening’s 15-20 min pop-up Columbia shower. 4.22” for August thru 8/30.

Occurring during such a strong developing El Niño made this even more extreme relative to what has occurred in the past.

for the mid west, yes but we live in New England

JFK was able to finish this summer with the 4th highest number of 95°+days similar to some of the big 90° summers you mentioned. But stronger sea breezes overall lead to a lower total of 90°+ days than those years. So the higher end heat early on boosted JFK into the top 10 of warmest summers. While the developing super El Nino summer of 2015 was also warm for average temperatures at JFK, it didn’t have the major 95°+ and 100°+ heat this summer had. So the magnitude of the heat this summer was a first for such a high end El Niño event. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug 95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 10 0 2 1963 8 0 3 2002 7 0 - 1999 7 0 4 2026 6 2 - 2013 6 0 - 1949 6 0 5 2012 5 0 - 1983 5 0 - 1966 5 0 - 1955 5 0 6 2025 4 0 - 2022 4 0 - 2006 4 0 - 1993 4 0 - 1991 4 0 - 1974 4 0 - 1968 4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.1 0 4 2015 76.0 0 5 2024 75.8 0 - 2011 75.8 0 6 2020 75.7 0 7 1983 75.6 0 8 2026 75.4 2 - 1984 75.4 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 10 2025 75.2 0 - 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 All-time Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 4 101.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 101.0 2010-07-04 through 2010-07-04 - 101.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 101.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 101.0 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02 - 101.0 1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22 - 101.0 1948-08-27 through 1948-08-27 5 100.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 100.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 100.0 2013-07-18 through 2013-07-18 - 100.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 100.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 100.0 1983-08-20 through 1983-08-20 - 100.0 1983-07-16 through 1983-07-16 - 100.0 1972-07-23 through 1972-07-23 - 100.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26

Of course it’s possible. I’d put odds at ~25% as of now. Based on the fact that none are shown on current models, this being progged to be the strongest Nino on record, and the modern analog 1997, which had its last TC become a H on Sept 4th, it’s a realistic possibility.