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I would be remiss without noting this is day 52 with snow cover in Orange County surpassing last years total seasonal of 51 days. 43.0 inches of snow now ytd which already surpassed last years rather measly 32.8 inches. It's a solid A winter right now. Will see how it finishes up the next 7 weeks to see if it can retain its grade.

They have had an issue with "follow the leader" but in this case their high snow mean is because about 1/3 of the members didn't follow the op and instead show a blizzard over PD weekend.

digging into the AIFS ens its mixed... so the mean went back way up...but the median is only about 2". The reason why is the mean is skewed by the fact that about 30% of the members are huge HUGE hits...like 1-2 foot snowstorms even using 10-1...legit PD3 storms. Classic east coast storm distribution look to them. But that's only 1/3. The rest have a much weaker system with either less snow like the AIFS op that showed 2-3"...and then there are about 40% that have no snow at all and a warmer solution. So the AIFS ens are saying we have a decent chance (like 30%) of a BIG snowstorm...but the most likely outcome is a smaller 1-3" type event.

Plenty of time for things to get worse.

I vote for none of the above because I have Dropkick Murphys tickets

Wanna make a wager?

I'm getting the feeling that is their tendency. Anyone know or remember how they looked during periods where ops and ensembles were void of threats?

NWS has slowly crept up the snowfall amounts over the last 2 days, from <1/2" to <1" to 1"+. I know it's not a lot, but 1" of snow with temps in the 20s is going to accumulate on every surface and won't melt much during the day on Saturday with temps falling through the teens, so even 1" will impact driving.

Agreed. Even expanding that out a bit, the period from December 20th to January 10th was the 2nd warmest on record at Tri-Cities Airport and 3rd warmest at Knoxville (exceeded only by a couple of questionable recordings from the 19th century - it was more than 3F warmer than any year since 1890). Yes, it's been very cold since mid-January, but I don't know why some feel the need to carry on with this myth that there was no torch around the Holidays / New Year. The 3-week period centered around New Year's was about as warm as it gets in the Tennessee Valley. Tri-Cities Knoxville

I should start doing my "ensemble blend" method again...but I just haven't had time lately. But a few years ago when I did that...it worked pretty good and was fairly predictive of our chances...the one actual snow we got during the 2 months I did it was the one that showed above 50% odds from a week out. But it only worked from 5+ days out using 24 hours of ensemble runs...(which is 2 runs of the EPS and GEPS and 4 runs of the GEFS and it was weighted to give the EPS 2x more weight than the GFS and GEPS. If I did it again I would definitely add in the AIFS EPS and weight it similar to the EPS.

Good call There will be better weekends to come ahead

Say bye to snow

We just decided to bail on coming. Between the drive out friday evening and miserable (ski) conditions, we will sit this one out!

when does this begin?

The aifs ens is very snowy again

So I am going to assume the snowfall aspect looked so good there was no need to talk about it anymore which is why all I see is wind chill discussions

I don’t see 4-7 days as anything particularly enduring anyway. 40 or 60 it doesn’t really matter to me. Both would feel like spring. If I were to hazard a guess it’d be between 45-55 for highs for 4-7 days in CT followed by slightly BN temps thereafter with fewer Arctic intrusions as the hemispheric pattern moderates. SSW the wildcard in March.

NBM 13z Feb 5 output Not sure what this is worth and take guardedly for now (at least the distribution of highest amounts that will be pretty dependent on meso features), but it did pretty well with the Jan 25-26 storm... also notable that it has steadily ticked up the past 4 cycles:

yea I'm gonna drive up Sunday to ski Monday with the kids...looks to warm up pretty good by then but this weekend...too cold I think.

That's the other thing ... people are referring to the times as -NAO ? Not sure that applies to next week so much. The fact of the matter is, the -NAO is rising pretty rapidly from now through that period and beyond. Oh wait ...when are you guys talking about ?

@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying?

Its still the same time period and there's still a decent chance of wintry weather IMO. No guarantees of warmth and severe yet.

Last 4 days "warmup" EWR: 2/2: 37 / 15 (-2) 2/3: 36 / 17 (-6) 2/4: 35/26 (-2) 2/5: 32 * so far NYC: 2/2: 35 / 14 (-3) 2/3: 33 / 23 (-6) 2/4: 33 / 26 (-4) 2/5: 31 * so far

I'm with you guys. This way of ranking makes zero sense to me. I saw Paul/Chesco do the same thing with his 20-day snow cover streak. Turning what was really tied for 36th place with 4 other years into the #22 longest streak, so it went from being something that would occur once every three years [probably even more frequent when accounting for missing data - not sure he actually has 132 years of full data] to much more significant. This gets even more ridiculous the further down the line you go as there are more and more tied values. So it's actually 64th longest sub-40 streak (of 157 years), which is barely above the median - meaning it should occur, on average, nearly every other year, maybe more like 2 out of every 5. Ignoring all the tied values catapults it into some sort of significant cold spell. 18th makes it sound like it's nearly 90th percentile (maybe 1 every 9 years or so). One could imagine a scenario where there are three record cold months tied at 18.9F, and the month ends at 19.2F. Why should it be considered second coldest just because the three colder months happened to end tied at the same value? There's no difference than if the three colder months had instead been 18.7, 18.9, and 19.0F.

Shit lol my bad. Comes in presidents day eve