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Never count out October in the gulf but east coast is fighting climo into October for significant landfalls. Obviously there are exceptions

The sky

Through today, September 2025 has seen just two days with highs of 80° or above in Central Park. The last time there were as few such days during the September 1-13 period was 2009. Tomorrow will be somewhat warmer with widespread highs in the lower 80s. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s on Monday and Tuesday. Similar conditions could prevail on Wednesday and Thursday. A cutoff system near the Delmarva could bring some showers or rain to parts of the Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island on Wednesday into Thursday. September 1-15 remains on track to achieve a solid cool anomaly. Since 2000, there have been nine years that saw a cooler than normal first half of September. Two-thirds of those years went on to record a warmer than normal second half of September. Only two of those years (2017 and 2019) wound up with a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above. Overall, for two-thirds of those years, the cool start was sufficiently cool to produce a cooler than normal monthly anomaly. The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001. The last year to record a cooler than normal first half of September followed by a warmer than normal September was 2024. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -9.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.225 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The rain gods just have something against my neighborhood. Even a decent storm 8-10 miles away headed directly towards me finds a way to dry up before it gets here.

Here are two relevant papers: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2025GL114882

Hopefully it ends up a complete dud! A dud is so overdue. Boring for tracking is a small price to pay for a safe season. But too early to know yet for sure, of course, as it takes only one and late seasons have gotten worse. Besides the good for insurers, it would obviously be even better for insureds that have suffered so much in recent years in the US and abroad like in 2024, 2022, and 2016-21. Euro Weeklies have been suggesting back to near the 20 year active avg starting ~9/22 and into mid Oct.

This is the latest from the WPC concerning this time period. Will be interesting to monitor future trends.

Into my 2nd week in Turkey. Today 96 and dry in Selcuk, was 99 yesterday. Wet, washed jeans completely dried on outside clothesline in less than 4 hours.

Ok. We’re getting serious now.

Agreed done. I, considering our record, do not have much confidence in an engineering fix to alter the results. As always …

Couple sprinkles / storms on radar…. Where’d those cone from?

I would only note that even as the current geoengineering effort started off unintentionally, given the state of today's knowledge, the continuation of it is intentional.

Thanks again.

This tropical season is a complete dud. Good for the insurance companies

Clouds here too. I'm going to have to give September a demerit.

We just got a few drops of rain here. It felt good and smelled good. Now it's done for the next seven days. I have seen that music links are appropriate here. This popped into my head. Saw Violent Femmes while going to my little tiny college in Ohio. Small bar nearby (dating myself...ha).

St. Helena’s Church puts on an Autumn Daze festival every year with a parade that goes down our street. Our block makes a big party out of it. Kids and adults love a good parade.

That's a pretty rare winter pattern for our area (speaking the tristate area). Warm and wet usually wins.

Maybe we'll get lucky tomorrow with a few heavy showers. HRPDS likes it down here or Plymouth County. Also, maybe again Wednesday Night, Thurs morning

Wtf. 5 straight work days of perfect weather and clouds now at marina. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Neighbor had a small pile going couple nights this past week Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

this is a nicer looking forecast than 2024-25 this time last year.

82 / 58 a bit more clouds now than earlier this morning

Someone tempting fate around here burning.

Just let the rain hold off until after 4pm on Tuesday.