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BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 28 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 50.4W ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 50.4 West. Hanna is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east to east-southeast motion is forecast over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb

All short lived, except Fay. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (5) Hurricanes: 3 (0) Major Hurricanes: 1 (0) Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna

given what most seem to be indicating for the upcoming winter, i think everyone in the sub would take this in a NY minute.

Well they do... the effort is referred to as "now-casting" ... The idea is to tailor the forecast as the results are unfolding, which moves the goal posts on whichever metric is or isn't behaving according to the plan. ...etc I good example of this is flood headline management. There's a flash flood watch issue mid way through the event, or not. Warnings then will or won't need applying ... based upon what is observed. They can forecast a high wind warning, and if only three reports of down trees occurs, that by definition verifies the warning - even though the general dystopian hobbyists expects down forests. LOL ...kidding there but you get it...

Will probably be down with family (we live just up in the neighborhood from there).

2026-2027 Winter Outlook Temps Dec:0 to +2 Jan:-1 to +1 Feb:-5 Snowfall range 20-25” primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now. We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast . Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

That’s interesting

Well. I am sufficiently soaked. I believe we can officially declare the drought over.

There's research out there (but yeah you could argue lack of sample size) which shows a great deal of trust within weather forecasts, particularly with weather forecasts from local outlets.

Finished with 13" at 10:1

Not sure if you heard about the new series on Paramount+....Team Moms - Baseball. Classic trash TV, but does capture the craziness with some of these teams.

Just about 3 inches now

I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.

Finally got some decent rain - 0.70" overnight. Mostly very light rain since, event total including Sunday early is approaching 0.90", biggest precip since August 3.

i'm supposed to play some music at the Westover Day festival in Arlington on Saturday - I guess we will see.

Us too... but that was a doubleheader 3 weeks ago... It is hard here in BC to make up games too... because most of our fields do not have lights. We have a tournament coming up on Oct 17-18 and might be coming in with limited experience on a 90 foot diamond.

3 ninos is 3 ninos. You're digging too deep trying to find a silver lining. But lets wait until we actually fail before we start this analysis. I think we have a 40-50% chance of a big snowstorm this winter. Let's hope luck is on our side. But 2 things to keep in mind. The nino is 2016 warmed the pacific and super charged what was already a bad trend. And we've been in a very hostile pacific pattern ever since. Similar past periods with a similarly hostile long term cycle were low snowfall also, but things are getting worse so a bad cycle now is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad. It's that simple...the pattern we've been in the last 10 years would have been a bad snowfall period in any era, but now with warming bad is super awful bad. That's it... it's pretty simple.

You surpassed me to no surprise, 4.81" so far. You really got nailed yesterday afternoon onward it seems.

Beach Pizza for you???

Stopped at salisbury before going to hampton.. pretty gusty now

At some point we will get a big snowstorm again. I am not saying it will never snow again. However, we are in a hostile PDO cycle. You can track these long term cycles and see the impact on our snowfall. The issue is the hostile periods are becoming MORE hostile. It's becoming VERY difficult to get big snowfall years during hostile cycles. It was never easy during hostile pacific cycles but now its becoming increasingly unlikely to even luck into some fluke snowy seasons during a hostile period. Eventually we will... I don't think it's impossible just less and less likely. And eventually the PDO will flip again and we will have a more favorable cycle and probably a period of 15-20 years with "more" snowfall but the last 2 favorable cycles showed a decrease from period "snowy" cycles also so don't expect another 1960's or even another 2000-2016 period. But we will see snowier periods than what we've just experienced again. But my point is using past "normal" trends to set expectations is flawed since we know things are changing and becoming more hostile.

I mean at least if this one doesn't produce there's a known reason (super east based). Does it belong in the same category as the other two? What does bother me is how a switch suddenly flipped in 2016. Yeah I know the snow margins overall were going down in the two decades before...but that period of time still had footers (what I call storms over 12") every 3-4 years, with that heater between 2010-2016. Then after 2016 and it all just stops cold. No slow decline, just outright stops...I thought climo change was supposed to be gradual? Lol That's what makes me wonder if the super niño back then accelerated things, or made the atmosphereor can this one "reset" things once again? But if the next niño after this one behaves the same way the previous two did then yeah we might be cooked, smh