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just imagine if there was no global warming

Its already 45 here. I think we get colder than last night and maybe have some frost in the morning

1.38" today. Praise Jah. 4.50" since 8/1 - enough for me to stop caring.

I ended up with .97”.

Same here and we've had a lot more rain. Even in the low spots my woods which rarely don't have water... nada

1.35” so far. The incredible part is that with 3” of rain in the past 2 weeks the river has barely risen. In spring we’d be at flood stage.

Things are getting serious again; you are posting WB maps!

At 1.15" here. The western slope communities east of BTV in Chittenden County have gotten crushed. They got trained by several narrow bands of heavy rainfall and now the ULL and upslope flow is cranking. There are spots over 3" and pounding rain east of BTV. They could do 4"+ in this event.

When it comes to money, those guys have itchy fingers for clicking on buy contracts. Frankly, I thought it was too early in the season for big nat gas usage even with BN temps. Guess I was wrong.

I suspect the area of forecast Snowfall to expand if the Pattern forecasted is realized. Looking like a good amount of moisture to work with. Great Lakes are very warm as well.

Yep. 34 here as well. 32 in Keokee in northern Lee County. 33 in Rose hill and Ewing Recorded.

The idea of a potentially wet October 30-November 3 period, perhaps +/- a few days to allow for timing differences at the current forecasting range, still looks to be on track as per the latest ECMWF weekly guidance. It should be noted that the CFSv2 is still not on board. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF has insane rainfall amounts in the Middle Atlantic Region.

Been there, done that with deep fall rain and wind. I lost a newly planted liberty apple tree that way a decade ago. That’s why I don’t plant in the fall anymore.

Newark will probably approach or reach 70°. Most of the NYC area will probably fall just short.

That was the model that had us hitting 109 back in late June and we were laughing at it lol. I remember because you posted the maps.

I had a newly planted tree topple, about 12 feet high, gonna have to stake it i guess.

If the usually toasty GEMLAM doesn't get us to 70 that means we probably won't.

Don it looks like tomorrow is the warmest day out of the next 10, with less wind and some areas approaching 70? Sounds ideal.

True lol. But I have noticed that we rarely ever see mosquitoes during the middle of the day when it's really hot. It's always early on in the morning or much later in the day close to sunset.

But with a cooler climate, as you stated before, we probably didn't have all these invasive tropical species here. I can't imagine hundreds of years ago we had malaria or west nile here or any of these other new illnesses we are seeing. I wonder what our biosystem was like back then? I see some of these towns' histories go back to the 1600s, it must have been as wooded as what I see in the Poconos today. Or even more.

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

Still getting some beautiful raspberries down here.

Wow, half that here.

OK this can be deleted now...a rare glitch, this site is very stable. Thanks!

The wetlands in our area are key ecosystems. While we lost large swaths to development from Jamaica Bay out to Eastern LI, at least what we have now has been designated as preserves. Imagine seeing the whole area from NYC out to Long Island hundreds of years ago. NY Harbor back to the NJ Meadowlands was one of the greatest natural estuaries in all of North America. Jamaica Bay wildlife refuge is still one of the most important stopovers for migrating shorebirds in the East. Before the 5 towns was developed it was called the Woodmere Woods. That was an extensive forested area which people fought to save before it got developed in the mid 1900s. Much of Central Nassau was called the Hempstead Plains natural grasslands. Only a small portion of the original habitat survives near Nassau Community College. The back bays from Nassau to across the GSB still have a large mash habitat. The further east you go on Long Island the closer you get to something that is close to the original state. Especially from the Pine Barrens out to the Twin Forks.