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The rain gods just have something against my neighborhood. Even a decent storm 8-10 miles away headed directly towards me finds a way to dry up before it gets here.

Here are two relevant papers: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2025GL114882

Hopefully it ends up a complete dud! A dud is so overdue. Boring for tracking is a small price to pay for a safe season. But too early to know yet for sure, of course, as it takes only one and late seasons have gotten worse. Besides the good for insurers, it would obviously be even better for insureds that have suffered so much in recent years in the US and abroad like in 2024, 2022, and 2016-20. Euro Weeklies have been suggesting back to near the 20 year active avg starting ~9/22 and into mid Oct.

This is the latest from the WPC concerning this time period. Will be interesting to monitor future trends.

Into my 2nd week in Turkey. Today 96 and dry in Selcuk, was 99 yesterday. Wet, washed jeans completely dried on outside clothesline in less than 4 hours.

Ok. We’re getting serious now.

Agreed done. I, considering our record, do not have much confidence in an engineering fix to alter the results. As always …

Couple sprinkles / storms on radar…. Where’d those cone from?

I would only note that even as the current geoengineering effort started off unintentionally, given the state of today's knowledge, the continuation of it is intentional.

Thanks again.

This tropical season is a complete dud. Good for the insurance companies

Clouds here too. I'm going to have to give September a demerit.

We just got a few drops of rain here. It felt good and smelled good. Now it's done for the next seven days. I have seen that music links are appropriate here. This popped into my head. Saw Violent Femmes while going to my little tiny college in Ohio. Small bar nearby (dating myself...ha).

St. Helena’s Church puts on an Autumn Daze festival every year with a parade that goes down our street. Our block makes a big party out of it. Kids and adults love a good parade.

That's a pretty rare winter pattern for our area (speaking the tristate area). Warm and wet usually wins.

Maybe we'll get lucky tomorrow with a few heavy showers. HRPDS likes it down here or Plymouth County. Also, maybe again Wednesday Night, Thurs morning

Wtf. 5 straight work days of perfect weather and clouds now at marina. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Neighbor had a small pile going couple nights this past week Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

this is a nicer looking forecast than 2024-25 this time last year.

82 / 58 a bit more clouds now than earlier this morning

Someone tempting fate around here burning.

Just let the rain hold off until after 4pm on Tuesday.

What?? A bright ball of fire in the sky LOL. Yes the sun made it's appearance. Nice day. Biker club just went by my place. Loud ass Harleys

Euro AI been locked in with it. Also pretty steady with a rainy pattern after that coastal. 4” for DC next 2 weeks on the 12z run.

I've seen figures of about 75% should all the ice melt. That's not going to happen anytime soon. Even in the Mid-Pliocene, some ice was retained. An Eocene-type scenario would be a different ballgame. Removing even a modest amount of water could disrupt the water cycle, reducing rock weathering (allowing even more CO2 to pile up in the atmosphere) and producing devastating to catastrophic ecosystem damage. Draining the water could also reduce the oceans' thermal inertia leading to faster warming at each level of CO2. Finally, humanity is already engaged in a colossal geoengineering experiment in which it is pumping CO2 into the atmosphere at an order of magnitude or more above the rapid rise in CO2 that sparked the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Given its reckless ongoing conduct in the face of now full knowledge of the consequences of its geoengineering initiative, my guess is that humanity would ignore potential risks in any new geoengineering effort, probably compounding the damage rather than mitigating it. After all, if they ignore the hazards of their current practices, why would any other geoengineering effort be different?