All Activity

I see IAD and DCA at 89 per 4pm official obs... I'm assuming both reach/reached 90

There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras went down to 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71”. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62”: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” at CHS! -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras) https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall it: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf 1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69”) 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4”) https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, and Euro-AIFS sniffing something real out for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

Its coming https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1Jv5zciTYS/

Euro backed off too.

Venturi

I'm finding this WWB more and more impressive the more I look at it. The MJO is diametrically opposed to el nino at the same time this is happening... Causing destructive interference. It's not until we close out the month and into Nov when it circles back to enhance the background state again. Causing constructive interference at that time. Expecting to see that through November much like the sequencing from the end of July through Aug. It appears similar in amplitude as that one also.

Low of 45 and a high of 83. Ugly.

Got hit with that in Oakland. Of course I cracked my car windows in the morning before heading into the office. Threw my back out sprinting to the car in the rain to close them. Drenched AND in pain.

Great winter here, especially the pack. Still 47" deep on April 1. (Not foolin' - had 19" on 3/30-31.)

Useless model.

NAM'ED (might be one of our last ones)

What a day. Had a downpour this afternoon at the office.

concerns

Any nudity under covers ?

I'll take Sunny please.

who cares about that as long as its not hot and humid I'm good

Those west moving typhoons .. gets the ACATT crew all the time . We warned em’

Full sun here in Mt Airy and 84.. it feels summery for sure out from under the clouds

Keep in mind folks it is MID OCTOBER Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

wow poof...gone

Hit 89 here. Dew points in the upper 60's. Sun feels hot, shade somewhat comfortable.

About that outlier...