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Your pony - o will be ripped out of mane and deposited in the snapped white pines as you trick or treat

That trend line looks wrong. I'm sure the calculation to create it was mathematically sound, but the trend line in the first graph clearly doesn't match the data points for the last 15 years. These kinds of graphs are useful, but only to a point. While I don't doubt that the shade in central park has an effect, there's no certainty that prior to that period there weren't other local effects or inadequate shielding making some of the sunny day readings too high. I'll bet the weather service describes both periods the same: properly sited, properly shielded and properly calibrated.

Interesting, the WPO was strongly positive back in the winter of 2014-2015. If you type in on google search WP0 in winter 2014-2015 that information will come up detailing the impact of a strong positive WPO. With such a historic marine heatwave this year in the north Pacific I would have to say it would have staying power. I don't think a weak La Nina is going to destroy the "warm blob". This winter I think is going to be interesting to say the least to see what actually happens. I realize the enso state is La Nina not El Nino or Neutral either so yes I have to keep that in mind as well. By the way I am not saying that the warm blob will force a winter pattern for the Eastern USA but it did have a big influence on the said pattern through both winters 13-14 and 14-15 winter. Taken from AI overview on google search. A wavy jet stream instead of the Pacific firehouse would make for an interesting winter. I know very little about the weather and I greatly appreciate Met Typhoon Tip for sharing his professional insight. Impacts on weather and climate The warm blob created a distinct atmospheric pattern that influenced the winter weather across North America from 2013 to 2015. Divided winter weather: While the blob contributed to unusually warm and dry conditions on the West Coast, it was also linked to the very cold and snowy winters in the central and eastern U.S. and Canada. Record mild winter in the West: Many ski resorts on the West Coast either closed early or did not open due to extremely mild temperatures and low snowfall during the winter of 2014–2015.

Outside of convection, the valley is where wind goes to die.

2.1" here, and I'm wearing shorts outside doing some cleanup, yep it's humid!

Check soundings. You’ll see

Looks like the following weekend (11/8-9) we could mild up.

You got me good this time, only 1.21" here.

When do we get the torch? Looking forward to some warm weather.

Yeah if I see anything over 30 I'll be shocked. Never get wind here

Another band of showers, some very briefly mdt-havy for NNJ-NYC NYS this eve as the 5H sort-trough axis and about 150M 12 hr Height Fall Center axis passes through, then the sfc wind turns west and drying begins with gusts 40 MPH tomorrow afternoon ,. As of now not planning a new thread for marginal wind alone tomorrow. I think today will have equaled or exceeded what ever tomorrow brings.

I think many areas mix 50+. Good CAA, strong low north of Maine. Checks off some boxes.

ramping up here but looks a bit weaker than what the city got

I’m expecting 20-30mph tops in NW MA.

2.25 inches here after this deluge worked its way through. Very satisfied. Also happy that winds have completely died.

I’m still skeptical of gusts 55+ Especially inland

This storm was a perfect combo of nighttime rain and a quick enough mover to get ample sunshine by midday. I’d enjoy it more if I wasn’t nursing a rib injury. Looks like an awesome stretch of weather coming up as well.

Hammertime!

As of 4 pm, New York City has seen 1.81" of rain. That breaks the daily record of 1.64" that was set in 1917. The hourly figure from 3 pm - 4 pm of 0.83" surpassed the hourly record for October 30 that was set during 1955.

Pitch black and like a tropical storm in western Suffolk. 0.55” on the day but the squall line hasn’t made it yet

Currently 54.8/42.0 here with mostly cloudy skies at 4 pm, which is the high so far. Sun has poked out a couple times and it has become breezy from WSW, currently 11 gusting to 23mph.

2.56” total. It is gorgeous out - 64 and blue skies. Winds blowing around 26.

breeze picking up here, 56/53, still waiting on the rain, big northward moving plume on radar crossing in to new england

It has looked nighttime nearly all day with little rain to show for it.