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Wei4d - showing up for me. It’s my location like .10 miles outside the rain zone

At least Mother’s Day looks like it will be near perfect weather this year..

Might as well

heh...actually a couple of decent days there in the latter mid range but that pig cut-off out there is coming completely out of left field and doesn't fit with any prior indicators as something even physically plausible.

I can't see the pic??

Sun

man that's a piece of shit gfs run... wow

Thank you sir kevin

How come didn’t thank me who provided the same explanation with much less verbiage?

Stein hands all over my face missing rain east and west.

Thank you for the explanation.. it must of been wild sucks I missed it.. if only knew.. this would of been before the main line even came. It was the stuff out of front of it.. probably around 330ish

tornado watch and also enhanced risk for tornadoes in Texas

Looks like Western Suffolk to Middle Island about to get some serious rain in the next hour. West and east of that…not so much. Amazing how much the sky has changed in my train ride west.

Looks good daytime Saturday and mild most of next week on the 12z runs

The trailing edge of the precip is about to come through my area. HRRR says it rains the rest of the day, but radar isn't backfilling further east so maybe we get a lull for a while

lol

I have racked up 0.80" so far since the rain began on Monday, so not a major bust up here. Holding fairly warm at 40 degrees, so snow chances at my elevation are looking pretty low.

Sure. A gust front

I would mind living near MAF for like April/May/early June

Been a train of heavy rain since 1030 here.

Who's got SE winds at 500mb? Me. You.

7.36” max to our north is improving the drought conditions there.

this was by Midland Odessa last night

Mesoscale Discussion 0716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK May 6, 2025 16:01Z Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey and far southeast New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061601Z - 061800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase over the next several hours. The stronger storms will be capable of strong wind gusts and perhaps large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed if appreciable strong storm coverage becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...Insolation is modifying the boundary layer amid some persistent cloud cover, remnant from earlier showers and thunderstorms, which is warming temperatures through the 60s F. Cooling temperatures atop a destabilizing airmass from the approach of a pronounced upper trough, and minimal convection inhibition, is supporting relative robust updraft development across southeast PA (per MRMS mosaic radar imagery). Through the day, further heating should boost MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg, which should be adequate for scattered strong to potentially severe storms given expected 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Current regional VADs and short-term RAP forecast soundings depict a unidirectional vertical wind profile with elongated, straight hodographs. As such, linear multicellular clusters and transient supercells should be the primary modes of convection for the stronger storms that manage to develop. Strong, damaging gusts are possible later this afternoon once the boundary layer destabilizes. Given colder temperatures aloft overspreading the Mid-Atlantic into the Hudson Valley, large hail cannot be ruled out either. Therefore, if robust storm coverage becomes apparent, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed within the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 suns out here in Levittown now