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12Z models are still split about this storm, with QPF over an inch from GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles, much less from the NAM and Canadian (0.25-0.4"). NWS point and click for me is 0.56". We shall see.

My daughter has a 10AM soccer game in Burlington Sat..oye.

Twenty years of the NAM was like having a crazy uncle in the room every time a storm threatened Harrisburg. Half the time it was off in its own universe NAMMING the LSV with a 30-inch fantasy, or drawing a snow/sleet gradient through Cumberland County so tight you could practically cross it walking down the street. March 2015 was vintage NAM: a run trying to dump 2–3 inches of sleet over parts of the LSV while taking snowfall from 12 inches to 2 inches in roughly 10 miles. Then came January 2016. While the Euro and GFS wandered around, the NAM kept hammering away at the same outrageous solution, the SREF had a camp increasingly interested in the bigger totals, and the 700–500 mb frontogenesis actually provided a physical reason to take it seriously. KMDT finished with 30.2 inches, with 36.9 inches reported at either Carlisle Mechanicsburg. That doesn't mean every crazy NAM map verified, but that storm is why you could never completely dismiss the damn thing. although it was great here in 2016 it's greatest coup in history had to be New York City Central Park same storm where 12 hours before you had the euro and the GFS adamant that Central Park would see no more than 12 in and the man was there drunk giving them the finger saying eat this with his 26". 24 hours later Central Park with register 27.5 in breaking their all-time record and forever cementing NAM in lore and more than making up for being burned by it the year prior. although I do feel bad for the Mid-Atlantic people maybe it's fitting poetry that it saves is absolute most let yourself on fire bad calls for that area the most. who forgets who could forget the famous March 6th 2013 10-in call with borderline crappy thermals. yes everyone knows not to trust in them but it was so adamant that so when you got their hopes up as I continue to print out 6 in of snow when it was nothing but sleet and rain. the name did everything and it's power to put some life and craziness into this hobby and a certain as it was it'd be too far north with the precipitation shield you knew that it was either going to have the one of the greatest groups ever or one of the greatest bust ever it was never not entertaining. That is why even though it might spend months going down in flames we still paid attention because at heart it was the biggest weather weenie model of them all. Cheers to your retirement you big doofaus. maybe just maybe it's 3 weeks until able to give it just enough time to have one last crazy ending by November 3rd, as it just 15 years ago on October 29th we had Jim cantore thunder snow whiteouts and 5.5 in on 1.4 in of precipitation with a high of 42. About as much as his nam storm as you're going to ever get. That was the only the second time we ever exceeded 3 in of snow by November 3rd. the first time was during the absolute most freakish 4 years of snow this area has ever seen November 3rd 1962. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Must be a site to behold. Cat 3’s (that are moving at 50 mph) will do that.

Crunchy leaves for Halloween, woohoo!!! Way better than snow. Growing season is about done anyway. So I cant say I mind some dry weather to finish fall projects. There's always December and January for cold rain.

And so it begins….

Hoovered in the upper 40's to around 50 all day with off and on mist. Starting to look more like winter than fall. Wouldn't be surprised to see some wet snow mix in with the rain in the higher terrain late week but it will be brief if at all.

No Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

+EAMT beginning to show up in the models towards the end of october with high SLP east of the Himalayas. Watch out for a jet extension and +PNA after.

Looks like Christmas day

Snow on the grassy surfaces at Clayton Lake.

All about blocking.

91 in Champaign

Detroit hit 87. Broke the daily record of 83. Technically its the warmest so late, beating 86 on Oct 15, 1897

Another big time WWB is in progress currently. This time pushing east of the dateline. First chart are the actual zonal winds.

Detroit saw the temperature soar to 87° and Indianapolis reached 88° this afternoon through 4 pm. That both cities' highest temperatures so late in the season. Some of this air will move through the East tomorrow. As a result, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day for some time to come. Highs will reach the middle to upper 70s ahead of a cold front. Newark will likely reach or exceed 80°. Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday. Friday will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to around 70°. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -18.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.539 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Touched 86 at KTOL which will be a daily record for the site. Breezy and warm out there.

you are right - just found this ---Legal Background: In 2021, Bob Read (Snowbird Bob LLC) pleaded guilty and was sentenced to prison (63 months) for federal fraud charges related to illegally obtaining pandemic relief (PPP) loans and unemployment benefits. [1, 2]

81 here

There's a restaurant in the middle of Norfolk, CT... they have pictures of the landscape (hill sides) taken shortly after the 38 event; nary a tree to be seen!!!

Eglin AFB here. Thanks for the coverage. I've learned a lot here over the years. Among the most useful info is flight level winds vs surface winds and the science of surface wind reduction. We left Friday morning, returned Monday morning. My flower bed before the hurricane, which I expected to be shredded: And after: I also left a small plastic water bowl on the back patio. It had only moved a few inches. Weather is weird.

Like anything, when warmth dominates a pattern, it doesnt mean there will be no cold shots. And its impossible to pinpoint when they will be. I will be surprised if there isnt a spell of cold/snow in the Great Lakes in November.

For sure. Much more population near the ocean is one issue why it would be way worse now, than in 1938. But ya…it’s just a matter of time.