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Both NAMs figuring it out now. Not trying to bury it immediately towards WAL.

Trend today has been for the storm to not only move closer to the coast but father south as well. Not great if anyone was hoping for switch to an offshore flow by Saturday Sunday. Yikes

It’s gonna ride and a tuck, the west-based high pressure wraps in the upper cold air, while the weaker easterly Atlantic high pressure fuels it with low level moisture.

I took my first evening walk at the park of the season in lieu of the treadmill as a result of the cool and windy weather thanks to the strong wedge. It was only in the mid 60s along with winds gusting as high as ~25 mph. Due to dewpoints of 60, the RH was high. But the wind combined with the coolness made it feel great! Also, there was intermittent drizzle, which was unexpected and made it feel even cooler.

You (hopefully) know that I respect you as a poster so that post wasn’t targeted at your own meteorological knowledge. You’re the reason, alongside other posters and some professors, I’ve gotten this far. I was responding to the chain of thought of “there’s not much going on” in this thread because, yeah, there really shouldn’t be anything going on! It’s the awkward period of winter forecasting where you can paint big picture but any details won’t be clear. We both know there aren’t great correlations between weather and winter till October at the very soonest, so we really can’t say much till then.

Don't be too focused on the 26 C SST line. STS can occur w/ SSTs as low as 15 C, and the Jan 2023 event (a hurricane IMHO) formed a nice convective ring w/ a persistent eye over 21-23 C SSTs and retained this structure remarkably well to 40N, and still looked really good and tropical-like when it passed Sable Island where SSTs were 7 C. I posted the sat loop earlier, and you'll see what i mean. HU Alex in Jan 2016 way out in the Atlantic was like this, It actually look best when it accelerating N over cooler SSTs w/ a distinct eye!

Phillies look pathetic.

Take aways for the LI Waddler: 1. Anomalously (and broad) high-pressure system that is trying to sink South and West. 2. Some sort of Tropical burp that is intensifying. 3. The lack of an Atlantic Hurricane thus far. 4. The chance of said high pressure system splitting. 5. One of the strongest El Niños (if not the strongest) on record. 6. SST near or record levels. 6.1 Gas getting close to its record levels (for the generators) 7. Full-moon. This thing will wreck havoc, 12z runs were the 3-day burp that happens.

Brewers notched their first 100-win season in franchise history. Maybe they can dethrone the Dodgers?

Time for a Whopper "value" meal. Thanks for the reminder @hazwoper

That’s way the heck down in the Delmarva lol.

This is fascinating evolution and not something that occurs that often. @CoastalWxneeds to broaden his wx horizons a bit, in addition to within 5 mi of Weymouth! Regardless of what the sfc low becomes, yes, it is irrelevant to the sensible wx impacts, unless it get "cute" and retains core TC characteristics as drifts near the S Coast!

Hrrr trying to wrap this towards Wallops Island lol. That’s cute.

Excellent point. I know of no sub-990 mb case in September for baroclinic deepening alone. Not that there has not been Nor'easters in Sep before, heck we get them in the summer sometimes, but the sfc low typically doesn't get too deep. 995-1000 usually is the limit. This event from July 22, 1983 stands out as one of the more impressive sfc lows for mid summer close to New England. 15z satellite image -- low was about 990 mb at this time.

+11c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton.. highest of the event so far.. still strengthening. Normal 60F water is 80F. That's why Charles Darwin chose the area for evolutionary thesis.

Tomorrow will be see clouds increase. The probability of a significant impact on the immediate New York City area from a strong nor'easter has increased overnight and during the day today. Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tomorrow night through the weekend. At present, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island could see 3"-5" of rain. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. Some uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. However, it increasingly appears that the storm will be an impactful one. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes, but it’s cool Don. I guess TBlizz didn’t see that run? That would be widespread 3 inches plus.

Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range.

18z Euro was pretty wet. Sorry if someone posted earlier.

Lol you just described a system that has tropical characteristics

Latest microwave for Fay. It has another window to do something. We'll see if the second time's the charm.

@CoastalWx is by far lopsided and the fully versed weenie guru for winter wx. He's kinda weak in svr local storms and TCs! When we worked at WSI, he would always defer to me for those topics! And his typical reply after I would explain a situation? "WE'LL SEE!" LOL. The biggest contribution I recall I did for him that he has actually acknowledged? We we discussing the 6/1/11 TOR event and the problem/issues w/ the Springfield warnings, and I said to Scott, "no excuse to hesitate, this day was screaming big a classic spinner day for New England -- situational awareness is huge leading up to such an event!" And he liked the term "situation awareness!"