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It would have worked this morning. Just the very tops.

GFS was a tick warmer in CT with less icing. I'd feel better in the Northern Hills, especially NW.

Remember where I am located and what surrounds me lol if it's sunny no wind then highly possible

The 2015 storm I'm talking about was in November, before Thanksgiving. The one you highlight was the last widespread "big dog" across all of Chicagoland. The 2018 fun was a couple separate storms as I recall. I just know I was miserable in Mexico and my husband getting pissed at me over it b/c I kept looking at models and radars and complaining I wasn't there. Sad, I know.

No

That's a great idea... I might do that too. You think the Afton Mtn overlook on 64 has enough elevation? Or need to be up in the park?

Yeah, I didn't mention it because the city really got screwed on that one. It was the rare recent storm where the NW won out. That was a heartbreak for the city - models literally changed drastically as the storm was ongoing and it cut further north.

Yea, winter is coming to an end. But who knows, we just might have a major winter storm to contend with before things settle down. Looking forward to a good thunderstorm to kick off the Spring season. Maybe the cold er air already in place will diminish our chances here in eastern Pennsylvania.

GFS is warning snow for many in Mass/S NH Wheee

What sort of convection is it? Elevated I assume since the temp inversion near the surface

Hoping the BDCF clears far enough south tomorrow so I can wake up early and watch the sunrise over the cloud deck in Shenandoah. Been a bucket list item for me.

For this week so far .79 rain. For the year so far 2.64in.

The general tendency is -H5 near the Poles, with +H5 in the mid-latitudes, but it's a pretty weak correlation (0.10-0.15) that far out. I've run several individual cities record breaking warm patterns out at different times, and that's what the constant theme is (warm mid-latitudes, -h5 near the Pole +several months time).

Yea, "I" not meant to indicate any isolated, mesoscale injustice of sort....just saying the slide southward was the nail-in-coffin.

My area specifically has just gotten skunked on any kind of jackpot/historic type event. The last 20” snowstorm I’ve seen has probably been PDII in 2003 when I was 16. A couple have come close but still nothing like even 20 miles east of me. My specific area is great for moderate to 12” type events but never gets the jackpot, ever. The snow average here is quite good relatively speaking because we do well in those marginal to moderate events. But 16-17” here too and 29” at Islip, again maybe 14-15” here in Jan 2022, over 2 feet for Islip.

Wow, 90F first week of March. Brutal.

You ain't the only one B**** Never saw so much sand

Setting the stage .. ... according to WPC ( and as expected - ) the front demarcating the big +PP air mass arrival has slipped thru unnoticed... Looking around at the DPs, there's a lag there, with colder DPS held up across NE NY/VT/NH/N ME. They're in the neighborhood of 30 F locally, which isn't likely low enough for ZR. Need to see the activation of some sort of ageo drainage jet. Also, if the sounding were to verify more isothermal+ it won't be enough for snow either; a solution like the UKMET or ICON would be on the table and most froze/freezing is N of the VT/NH border. One aspect the front demarcation signals though is that the correction vector points cooler, ... particularly knowing that high is building ESE and will get deeper, not warmer in the lowest levels however.

I hope that doesn't translate for up here.

Severe season has started wayyyyyyy early in Texas. And my parents have already hit 90. Things are way off kilter.

Sure does. And in the summer when we really need the rain, we’ll be dry for weeks.

I hate everything. I wish humans had evolved to hibernate.

Man what a tough forecast…. Computer guidance is basically 1-10” here.

GFS close to 6Z, maybe a tad snowier here. Man that is so freaking close.

Yeah its not exactly a real impressive airmass advecting SW.