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  1. Today
  2. so_whats_happening
    I do remember this winter, was the first winter I remember having severe weather in February (actually had nickel size hail falling and accumulate on the ground) to getting a 18" snowstorm a month later. Was definitely a roller coaster and that seems to be the case going forward at least in terms of what happens around the mid atlantic. We have really really warm periods or really really cold periods (nothing seems too sustained) and really snowy periods or nothing at all and flooded by rainstorm after rainstorm. Again looking locally only, we do not seem to be able to properly keep the ground frozen for a long period of time anymore. We do get a hard freeze but when temps in the middle of winter don't have a sustained low below 20* for more than a few days it becomes rather hard to keep a solid frozen ground. This rather warm low also makes it a bit difficult sometimes with these systems that have us right along the boundary. What use to be the rain/snow line around 95 has definitely pushed back further NW compared to say just 15 years ago. Much more in the way of mixing situations around my locale when we would manage just to be able to squeak out an all snow event. Just a few things I have noticed more so over the last probably 10 or so years. This is not to say we have never experienced this just that it seems to be happening of more frequency. Working at BWI for almost the last 9 years we have had pretty bad snowfall ever since the 15-16 winter and the only reason we got something decent then was because of that monster snowstorm in January of 2016. The last close to average snowfall was 2018-19 with 18.3". We have had quite a few extremely low snowfall years of recent (from about 2000 area on) when they would occur maybe once a decade before. There does tend to be a noticeable decline in snowfall after these heat spikes have occurred, but unfortunately snowfall can have rather wild swings down here. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf
  3. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    After the 30% BoC lemon does whatever it is going to do, maybe even getting a name before moving into Mexico well S of the border, the GFS and Canadian seem to think more vorticity will come up 3 or 4 days later from the Caribbean and form a Gulf low. GFS has the non-lemonized disturbance hitting New Orleans as a solid tropical storm beyond credible range/resolution truncation. Canadian at 240 hours has a broad disorganized low over the BoC but with a break between the ridges that would take anything organized towards the Central Gulf. Not putting too much stock in models 10 days and beyond, but I do think it is interesting if the weak system forecast to develop in the BoC is followed a few days later with another Gulf low of Caribbean origin. Even the 12Z Euro-AI suggests another Gulf low.
  4. John1122
    After an open windows night last night, with a low of 52, the house cooled way down into the mid 60s. So got by again today with no ac. The humidity got up a little today and the high was 78.
  5. mreaves
    DIT just had a nocturnal emission in his footie pajamas.
  6. DavisStraight
    Should I do something to combat the heat? Water more? Not sure, haven't had them a long time, you have more experience than me.
  7. dendrite
    will try to do some damage the rest of this month.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Normal wx can definitely be good too. We really easily forget what normal really means with all of the blowtorches of recent years.
  9. Bubbler86
    Tickets for game 2 secured.
  10. DavisStraight
    My fruit trees are sick with fruit this year, maybe the weather, not sure but should get a bountiful harvest this fall.
  11. dendrite
    Every white pine has been brown up here. Lots of needles dropping now. A lot of those oaks along I93 north of CON seem to be dead after multiple years of gypsy damage.
  12. HIPPYVALLEY
    We had it in W MA last year.
  13. high risk
    Really interesting forecast for later Friday. Deep layer shear is adequate for severe, but there are big differences in moisture evolution. There is a lot of agreement that there will be some strong low-level drying in the early afternoon (mixing? downsloping? subsidence?), but the extent of the drying differs a lot among the models: Both forecasts have a local min in the DC area with higher dew points surrounding that min; they both moisture things back up later in the afternoon as the front approaches. The HRRR, however, can't recover enough from that pretty serious drying (both in magnitude and coverage), while the NAM Nest has "less work to do" to get dew points back up into the mid to upper 60s by the time convection tries to initiate. I'm pretty sure that the HRRR is significantly overdone, but if it's at all on the right track, frontal convection will struggle. If we can moisten up by late afternoon, it would probably be a SLGT risk day.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Well, it would appear that summer is about to get hot about during the timeframe when summer normally gets hot. I concur w/ extended summer outlooks going well into September and even early October. BUT, I am just a bit wary(more so than normal) of LR ext modeling right now. Nina "should" be hot and dry....sometimes really hot and dry IMBY. As John noted, some Nina summers are actually AN for precip. The Apps should be drier than normal through winter. BUT, I am losing confidence that modeling has this nailed down. Too much jumping around on operationals....really all over the place. I suspect the eventual net result will be AN temps for an extended period of time, BUT less than confident right now. This pattern almost feels like it will flip as soon as we go "all in" on hot weather. TX and Plains' heat ridge combo usually means we get very hot here. We'll see....
  15. Jns2183
    If I knew that I would have made them plow down 7 graffiti highways in the hot sun. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
  16. powderfreak
    I will say normal June weather for a stretch has been delightful when the sun is out. Normal for this date is 73/49 locally at the MVL ASOS. Today featured 72/49. Climo average day on the dot. I mean, this is nice weather. Sometimes seeing what “normal” is can be fun. This scene was at 7:45pm too. Sunset isn’t until after 8:30pm these days. It’s awesome, can be outside 7-9pm with no light issues.
  17. TimB
    Assume they mean June 1994, but yeah.
  18. Bubbler86
    Firebirds will be tired after 26000 steps.
  19. Itstrainingtime
    They've been in town the entire week! Vaca in Chocolatetown! Firebirds ridin' Wildcat's Revenge with JNS all week!
  20. Bubbler86
    Crazy thing about that. Firebirds are already in Hershey. They would havehad to fly back West to open at home if Monsters win this game.
  21. Itstrainingtime
    No time for the weary...a determined Coachella Valley team awaits.
  22. Bubbler86
    Negative history averted. Looked terrible until monster player choked with a puck penalty. Hunter saved the bears.
  23. Itstrainingtime
    Boom!
  24. Bubbler86
    score!!!!!!
  25. canderson
    Wow they score. Victory from the jaws of defeat - they looked toast
  26. kdxken
    I promise last one! The first two articles kind of poo pooed the damage. Not what I'm seeing. This is more like it. https://digitalmaine.com/for_docs/98/
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