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“30+ days in MJO phase 8 in December”. One of the best doozy’s of all time from you. Stick to arresting perps in the Bronx

How many times are you going to be wrong this winter ? Jeez man give it a rest.

pretty nice timeseries from the campus wx station today, sw winds really ripping through campus, and we're a few degrees above modeled for the afternoon.

Wrong again, but that’s normal for you. There was just a massive EWB and positive SOI spike and region 3.4 has dropped as low as it’s been for this entire event. Maybe you should stick to predicting 30+ day long MJO phase 8 events

I'm in awe of the absolute clinic (interference and otherwise) by which SNE is missing significant snowfall, especially now in a BN cold stretch... For 15-16th and 18-19th in particular, strength of the vort on guidance a few days ago seemed like it would overcome any inteference issues to at least graze (15-16th) or cut (18-19th) A corollary: there are many more routes to having no event than there are for an event to materialize. I did this last year and was curious how it extrapolates this year... I charted 4-year rolling average snowfall at KBOS. Obviously 2025-2026 is not over, so for February and March I just used historic means (* indicates extrapolation from historic means for those 2 months). Look how off the charts this 4 year stretch has been... well below 2 standard deviations:

First sentence was spot on, though the 7th was halfway between 6th and 8th. Temps here: 1-6: 18 -2 7-12: 35 19 The 7-12 "norms" are 1.4° lower than 1-6, making the mild-up even greater.

No, at this point I'd rather the opposite. I'm DONE with cold and dry...I don't care if it rains, at least it's not 0 degree WCs.

You do realize La Nina is about dead right ? You keep mentioning about the typical La Nina February and March but not sure if that happens this winter.

The 12z EPS 10d 500 map from d 3.75-13.75. I didn't run it to d15 as the run isn't over. The 12z GEFS is almost identical. The 12z GEPS doesn't have a 7d map...but kick the base of the western ridge slightly eastward....but still cold.

Hasn’t all season, lows to the north with SW flows out ahead for the most part

One thing I’m extremely confident in is that we don’t see 5 winter months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row go below normal for temps. I do think January ends up being another below normal month, which would make 3 in a row since Nov. IMO no way in hell do both Feb and Mar also end up below normal. The only La Niña that did that in the last 30+ years was 1995-96 and that was well before CC hit

gfs doesn't have any system tracking underneath SNE. that would be an issue; would rather have a few suppressed systems and wait for the eventual tics north

I would watch MS-AL-GA-SC Sat-Mon. Something may come out of nowhere inside 4 days. UK has been showing it on and off and does again today. Remember that the GFS/Euro sort of suck with killing shortwaves in these patterns. The ICON does not really show much now but unfortunately 2 of our main models have issues with Gulf Coast slider type events which is why so many of those historically have popped up inside 96 hours.

this guy is such a tool Mark Margavage @MeteoMark · 21m @sophieraiin I see a third option here... Move in with me in Pennsylvania. We have Amish but no sin tax. Freedom! You miss every shot you don't take.

And I haven't even talked about the weekend and the 12z Euro run. Nothing huge, but lots of bands of light snow rotating through on the 17th, 19th, and possibly the 21st. Snow flurries could reach all the way to the Panhandle of Florida. That WWA for the mountains (which was shared earlier) could easily be a blizzard warning above 5000'. 40mph winds w/ accumulations of 6" and that is for Jan 13th. Ski slopes may score big during the next two weeks. Lots of windows to track right now...

He got the #drought in there

Euro has a monster winter storm for NC two weeks out.

GFS has a decent event this weekend. Euro is dusterville. Euro feels right.

GSP stated in their afternoon disco that snow totals have increased again. I'll be watching the shorter term guidance the next 24 hours. I did see some of the convection allowing models suggesting up to a foot of snow along the highest peaks.

ACATT could easily be on the wrong side. Looks like an up and in type gradient to me

Depending on the model/specific run it looks like the 18th, or the 19-20th on the GFS/GEFS. Looks like there could be 2 pieces where neither does much of anything, maybe a dusting(Euro). Next few runs might be interesting- small chance this could end up better.

as long as you drive me there

This is a 10-day(!) map. This isn't just the d10-15 map. This is d5-15 map. I am not guaranteeing this verifies. But if I showed you this during August, and said that temps are going to be BN during our coldest climatology w/ blocking over the top and out West...would you have taken this map? You bet!!! The risk is that this pattern is dry. For many of our good snows, we need cold in place and good source regions.

Look for someone to hold you