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Good write-up from GYX for tomorrow night/sunday KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes Saturday night, as a second low develops in the Gulf of Maine late Saturday night and Sunday. The first low brings warm air in aloft, while the coastal low helps brings colder air southward at the surface Sunday morning. Like we have seen several times so far this winter, cold air damming will help to drive temperatures and precip types through the event. With the NBM`s reliably poor performance through these systems, the forecast heavily weighted the available high res guidance, most notably from the Nam 3km. As the HRRR becomes more available through the system, there is likely room for continued refinement of temperatures into the day on Sunday. The set up overall is not as ideal at CAD set up as we have seen from other systems this winter. Saturday`s highs are mild with temps in the low to mid 40s, and precip arrives too early in the evening to allow for any meaningful radiational cooling. This means we`ll have to rely on wet bulbing and cold air advection for the colder temperatures. It`s pretty uncommon to wet bulb below freezing into sleet in freezing rain. For this reason, along much of the coastal plain and southern New Hampshire it`s likely to be in the 32-34 degree range with rain for much of Saturday night. Just north of this area, temps are likely to be at or just below freezing to produce a narrow stripe of sleet and freezing rain. Then north of here through the mountains and foothills, mainly snow is expected. This is the anticipated outcome through Saturday night. Then by daybreak Sunday, temperatures begin to fall as the coastal low deepens and winds shift to northerly. Colder air is expected to slosh southward at all levels of the atmosphere as the low deepens. This transitions precip to mainly rain or snow Sunday morning, with the rain/snow line moving southward. Precip likely runs out before the cold air arrives through the Seacoast as the dry slot moves in, but a period of snow likely ends the event through much of coastal Maine. Further north through the mountains, foothills, and across central Maine, moisture likely continues to blossom through the day as the coastal low deepens. Through these areas, there is an increasing potential for advisory level snowfall through the event.

46F and rain, .10” so far. At least the salt is being washed off the roads

The foothills drought is just as real as my 3.1 inches. Just to help you keep it in perspective

There was pretty much zero wind when I walked the dog around 4. This seems to have started after 7:30 or so.

High of 75 after a low of 44.

We calm

It's 10 days out, it could still be nothing for all of us.

Windy tonight.

my area got to 61 before sunrise, breaking a record of 59

Transient 50-50 lows are often not helpful outside of perfect timing/luck. Its simply a low moving through that location. A 50-50 low that is useful is part of a -NAO rex block, in which case it is quasi-stationary.

Been wondering about this...considering the lag in atmospheric effects we see, would we see a response that soon?

He's clearly going off today's Euro weeklies that could easily be substantially different in a few days. Fwiw, 18z Gefs are cold to end the run still.

Blame my edible, but gonna start a thread for next weekends storms. I’m gonna speak it into existence like Oprah said.

I was just thinking that we are entering the period where models sometimes lose systems or change them in some way only to come back 72 hours out or so. Something to do with wonky stakeouts data sometimes in the polar/ N. pac regions maybe? I also want to add that I’m sorry for what your going through Powell

I'm trusting PSU over JB any day of the week

Not even two people working overtime could possibly meet the same astronomical number of posts that guy was capable of.

Okay, let's try to do another good, informative post so TSSN thinks my account is still hacked. In my opinion, we're either going to get the January 15-16 storm, the January 18-20 storm, or we're going to get neither. The kicker poor wave spacing , while not helping our 15th system actually helps the second wave (for the 18-20th) as I think that the residual energy from the kicker helps with a stronger +PNA, helping slow down the jet stream so the original kicker can tilt negative and bam. This is getting the the end of my knowledge however so I'm not 100% whether this analysis is correct. If I'm wrong please correct me

Way out in lala land but a good look at the end of the GFS run. Arctic HP up top and another storm on the gulf coast. Could be a decent overrun event if it doesnt get squashed.

yeah i pretty much trust them more than anyone else lol. Some of our TV mets are pretty good too.

If correct, things might throw a wrench into a canonical nina Feb and we get yet another chance then.

seriously, dude is like the Jim Cramer of meteorology

I like it sliced

Heh … Finally got to see that 18 ZGFS That’s quite a CCB head it backs in there on the 15th/16th one

Book the blizzard. That dude is washed.