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46 in upper NW, DCA with a low of 50, coldest since May.
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whole region sleeping good
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Invest 92L--90% 2 day, 90% 7 day odds of Development
jm1220 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Looks like a wall of shear before anything hits the Gulf coast. The SE is pretty dry so a good rainer would help. If we’re really dealing with 40kt shear on the Gulf coast, hard for me to see how anything beyond a moderate/strong TS can make it. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
and what reason is that? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even with these CFS WWB forecasts being too weak leading to an unrealistically low Nino 1+2 values, it increases the WWBs again over the winter and continues into next summer. -
NAM a bit more aggressive with the potential for showers tomorrow night, particularly along and north of the Pike
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Fall 2026 Med/Long range discussion
SchaumburgStormer replied to Brian D's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It’s boring as shit, but pretty stoked with the windows open weather. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Same reason you talk about climate change in an El Nino thread. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
why are you talking about this in an el nino thread -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Should lead to the the plateau of the weekly peak. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Right...I get it. Less snow....not 1.5-3' over interior SNE, but plowable nonetheless. Same page. -
frost advisory one mile to my north-probably see rooftop/car top frost here.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
MC convection is mostly shut down barring the typical passing ER or MJO pulse. Can also see the seasonal collapse southward of Eastern Pacific convection towards the equator as we get closer to November. -
I win! 28 degrees down in Cannan valley this morning. House we rented was on a hill and stayed above freezing, while the valley had pockets of freezing fog and frost. Will find some more pictures from my trip to share later.
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It as cold and windy as advertised.
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Oh, I don't really think that will occur but was just saying its a possibility. I lean toward a better than average winter compared to some of the other Super El Nino's.
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CON’s 2nd coldest temp on record was in Jan 1878. 50” of snow on the season which is BN but not a ratter in the period of record. But that was in the middle of a stretch of very snowy winters.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I've mentioned it before. The Cfs2 has literally had it for almost 2 months as the strongest WWB. Beyond it, the WWB are weaker thru the end of December. -
Not surprising at this range, but the ensembles are much less enthusiastic with the depth of that trough.
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Not sure they can win without him given how the defense looks so far.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The comparison was to a low tracking in directly from the east over NYC like last week which would be further north than December 1992 that came into the Delmarva.
