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Funny you say this because I've been thinking the same thing. If we had better positioned highs with these setups, we would see suppressed storms or really strung out garbage in which the northern shield of the precipitation shield gets eroded away with drier air draining in. For HP positioned to our north, we want that when systems are coming up the coast, probably not advancing WNW out of the deep south.

^what he said

It is definitely solid:

Had to leave Fallston for downtown at 6:30 - was 35 and rain - but car had a full glaze of ice on it - so I guess freezing rain to start is what I will record for an obs for the day.

Well those who are lucky enough to get some accumulating snow will get to look at it for awhile....be nice if we could get a nice region wide Miller A or B with this cold coming up but that looks doubtful. I told my neighbor yesterday not to be surprised if there's only two slushy inches and now that seems like a fantasy lol Cloudy chilly start though 28. Certainly looks like a snow sky for the time being.

Just saw that officially in Lancaster (MU) the official snowfall total was zero. Nothing measurable fell.

As per mPING, the precipitation has started as rain in New York City and southern Westchester County. North of White Plains, there was a rain/snow mixture.

29f, Snowing here. Trying to enjoy it instead of endlessly bitching. Here's the new yard. At '300. Need to update profile. Hoping we get 2-4". It'd be the first memorable snow for my daughter probably. She's 2 in Feb.

That model is all over the place.

It has already changed back to snow here with some sleet pellets mixed in. Hopefully we get a nice period of heavy snow before the rain gets here.

Rain/sleet mix and 31.2. Finished with 0.5" of snow and sleet which is right about what I thought. The GFS got absolutely schooled by the NAM for down this way.

3k NAM has a decent ending in E MA....prob a couple inches anyway. Esp near and N of pike.

Profilers from MDE are wind only. I don’t know of any microwave radiometers in the area that would provide temperature. There might be a fortunately timed ACARS takeoff/landing at one of the big 3 airports but I’d have to look when I get into work.

4 1/2" here in Hopewell.

The sleet signature on correlation coefficient is racing back south all of a sudden. We changed to sleet and then rain now back to snow. Pretty interesting. Muhlenburg township. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Kev gets Jack Dick until Dick says otherwise

The good stuff's right behind those fat flakes

We've reeled the December 5-6 signal back, at least on the EPS. Since the EPS is showing snow it's a good model.

DOT cams west of US 15 in Frederick County are showing a flip back to snow, and roads caving.

Have gone over to sleet.

It just started ripping here about five minutes ago, for the first time since the start of the event.

New Hrrr is cold!

22.0° SN 1.5” so far

It's starting to slowly penetrate my dense skull. If this system was encountering a better +PP N of the region, its affects might not be felt this far N, anyway. Kind of a trade off. The system is ultimately not very significant in the tropospheric wave space. It's positively tilted, and partially absorbed into the background fast progressive/velocitysoaked circulation type. Also, as Will commiserated recently, we're lacking that higher pressure pattern situated N. These fast flow types make static +PP over-topping harder to come by, because the confluent structures break down to quickly and transition away. It's been plaguing our winters for a few years ... this fast shit. It's annoying. But there's a reason for it, and the resulting less high pressure situated N while storm systems move into and/or under our latitude, has become the leitmotif - frustrating for pure snow enthusiasts because the consequence means enter warming implications here [ hint, today ]. That said, this system is middling and subtly trended less. If there were more high pressure N, I'm starting to see that the meaningful impact may have ended up more suppressed. Having said all that...in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race. The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

Rather dramatic drop in the AO forecast during the past 24 hours.