All Activity

If the Phils win tonight and advance it will ease my brain from the Birds lackluster performance and the Flyers getting throttled last night. If they lose, a total all around shitty sports week in Philly...utter failure.

No hurricanes seems to be increasingly likely, but as for activity, the Gulf is starting to light up a bit on AI ensemble guidance.

From the bottom of the barrel, the Icon ensembles.

we got the old unmanned fire hose across the continent. these guidance are flip flopping the jet and wave train because they're missing underpinning planetary wave signal. It's like all S/Ws and no L/W. without the L/W rail system, the S/W train slips off the tracks on ever model run.. heh

As we are now in October and with absolutely nothing showing in any modeling, I am folding. For the first time this year I think the odds of not getting a hurricane exceed the odds of seeing a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. I'm going 60/40 odds (no hurricane/hurricane) at this point with only a CAG system as the realistic most likely chance to break the streak. Unbelievable

Kind of surprised SPC doesn't have general thunder extending into the Northeast tomorrow

Radar looking like we may get trained on today. Ready 2 drown.

I know Ai was.

Has any one looked at the visible GOES-East this morning?

Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend?

6z Eps

I'm hesitant but I think I'll go with the Vikings. Miami is so bad and they lost their best player for the season.

October 1 1999: One of the earliest significant snowfalls in Minnesota history falls in a narrow track across southern Minnesota. Reported snowfall totals include 4.0 inches in Montgomery (Le Sueur County) and Northfield (Rice County), 3.8 inches in Springfield (Brown County), 3.0 inches in Vesta (Redwood county), and 2.8 inches in Mankato (Blue Earth County). 1989: High temperatures across central and southern Minnesota reach the 80's. Later in the day, a cold front would come through and drop the mercury to the 40's. For Thursday, October 1, 2026 1752 - The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon Island disappeared. (David Ludlum) 1893 - The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90 degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie, GA, killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured one person north of Graceville, FL, and two persons at Bartow, GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 1 Thu International Coffee Day 1 Thu National Homemade Cookies Day 1 Thu National Fire Pup Day 1 Thu Urticaria day 1 Thu International Day of Older Persons 1 Thu National Hair Day 1 Thu World Vegetarian Day 1 Thu Breast Cancer Awareness Month 1 Thu International Music Day 1 Thu Balloons Around the World Day 1 Thu CD Player Day 1 Thu Model T Day 1 Thu National Black Dog Day 1 Thu National Lace Day 1 Thu National Raccoon Day 1 Thu Filipino American History Month

Raining in leominster

I’m not switching over until after Christmas Eve. Then it’s official.

Near-record highs today and tomorrow look to be replaced with actual fall next week. I hope these are the last 90's of the year, there is a good chance they are

100%. Great post, and info. Appreciate the explanations.

This record breaking super el nino is definitely going to throw a wrench into forecasts I think but I am thinking it'll be AN as well for most of the winter. Still though all it takes is the perfect setup at the right time to completely smash us like what happened in January 2016 following the last super el nino. But I do wonder just how lucky we got with that storm since it basically didn't snow the rest of the winter besides that one storm.

HRRR hardly shows anything in same time period

most of the precip from the Euro is Friday night and Saturday smh. Its been very aggressive with Saturday

Enjoying it while it lasts

Back to avg wx with frost/freeze warnings out for tomorrow morning.

https://phys.org/news/2026-09-science-strategy-transparency-anthropocene.html Mm .. honestly? There's no honesty there. Naivety perhaps, if someone believes it's just procedural contention. All that stuff about procedure mishandling, or turning phrases like "...Compromised evaluation" leading to "internal ethics report investigating these violations,.." strikes me as 'obsticularity' - i.e., blocking agenda. No, there's internal strife surrounding acceptance that human activity is causing climate change - that's what this is. And someone or group therein has some reason to block the labeling when it's perfectly valid. According to a quick conversation with AI ... "What is the reticence and/or outright resistance toward codifying a geological epoch as the "Anthropocene" ?" "The resistance is not mainly to the claim that humans are transforming Earth. There is broad agreement on that. The dispute is over whether those changes satisfy the technical rules for a formal geological epoch, and whether a single boundary can represent such a complex, uneven process. In March 2024, the International Union of Geological Sciences approved the rejection of the proposed Anthropocene Epoch. The proposal would have placed its beginning around 1952, using plutonium fallout from nuclear-weapons testing in sediments at Crawford Lake, Ontario, as the “golden spike”—a precisely defined physical marker for a boundary in the geological time scale. The Anthropocene therefore remains widely used, but not as an official epoch." Yeaaa, riiight. The problem I have with all that is for having suffered long years in observing the follies and vicissitudes human kind. What this smacks pretty egregiously like is no different than lawyers getting a murderer off "on a technicality" - a fundamental flaw in the execution of Law in our free society is that procedure should somehow circumvent culpability. So, the shimmering righteousness of human morality takes over and it is then used divisively. Whenever the implications of legislation is unappealing, ... most importantly, patently true, strategy is often redrawn to attack method. But it doesn't change the facts. Admitting human activity has led to climate change is a pacification device to turn down the heat while a stall can perpetuate. The hold outs for not label it as such and why? Dubious. There's probably something like "moles" (not per se but for lack of better word) up and down the ranks of the brain trust and "Universium" that may even have to answer to society during "back door conversations". Perhaps reticence in labeling it Anthropocene has more to do elsewhere - something powerful has something to lose. Perhaps I'm being too expressively cynical. Maybe. But given what's transpired in the last 150 years ... to mention, now more than ever is an exposing world that simply cannot conceal itself any longer like it used to, does anyone above a brick's intelligence believe that anything is or really ever was adjudicated with impartiality? Alright? so at least cautionary cynicism is required going forward.

ray-nee

yeah. warm and rainy