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Can't win for losing in Tn Valley. This one will nail Kentucky pretty good while the next will go South and East of us.

RGEM looked good for Wake and points west in NC.

Temp down to 29 degrees with moderate snow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Thanks! I sat in my car and just looked at the clouds to the North and decided that everything would stay to the North. I guessed correctly.

It brings the arctic front in late, Eric Webb had mentioned this is a concern for East/central NC. I also noticed it is developing moisture much later/further north (in addition to bringing more moisture West/inland)

Rgem is much more amped for sunday

CMC should come in hot, RGEM is amped

0z RGEM is very warm east and south of 85

Still rain..but looks to change pretty quick.

Super light precip but it’s mostly snow when actually gets falling.

Yeah, I’m rooting for this in hope to maybe chase on the plateau.

So far everything ticked a little better at 0z. That's better than the opposite. Looks like a burst of snow or rain on Sat. and a close call for something Sunday. Still a little time to trend better.

Check the panel before that friend

0z Rgem with a great look at the end of its run. Orientation of the trough looked really good

Rain?

Ha..RGEM gets light precip up to W Md

0z ICON with a big jump west

3K NAM appears to be headed towards a rain but timing works out and trys to salvage something. here's what it shows at 00z

RGEM gets some...rain closer, lol

Why is it that the NAM is so much colder than the other models for Friday night? It makes sense that the Great Lakes low would fail to provide east TN with enough cold air for snow, but that feature seems to be in a similar position with a similar strength on the NAM and RRFS/RGEM. Is the NAM just wrong? Does the NAM think heavier precipitation rates are dropping surface temperatures enough for snow for I-40 and north? Does the NAM just have the shortwave digging slightly more? Like Holston_River_Rambler mentioned earlier, I feel like the NAM (especially the high res NAM) seems to be the best at picking up TN valley warm noses, it's strange how it's the cold outlier here.

RGEM and ICON start the party off significantly more amped than 18z

Well, NAM was way way different than the 18z GFS at the same hour. It’s the 84 hour nam though so who knows what that means really.

It took a pretty good size jump west. You do realize the storm is still 4 days away right? Every model has been trending west. Not saying a GFS blizzard is on the table. But a few Inches certainly isn't out of the question