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What happened to him?

Someone should start a threat-specific thread

Yes and no. Kinda more into it now tho because things seem to be south/colder Yup

I'm eating thanksgiving dinner, the 18z runs will be dessert... Hopefully

there is going to be mixing somewhere- these amounts are not accurate yet BUT GFS and Euro moved closer to their mean Ensembles - probably more adjustments to come

F you I was going to post this exact same gif lol

lol. That’s some internet fail. Mine is still cooking. Beer brined that bitch.

12z euro quite wintry looking for the metro.

Take all guidance and blend and it’s a pretty nice hit for most of SNE

Miller B type of setup, at least it’s something to track

Oh yeah I know which one you're talking about, 1/19. It actually did pretty well in the medium range compared to other guidance which had the storm like 100 miles off the coast. Though I do agree it did pretty bad in the short range like you said, but it's not like any other global model did much better for that storm though

Euro is monthly climo snowfall for all of the folks north and west of I-95. Sign me up.

You just said my quiet thought out loud. The 12z gfs took a step closer to euro compared to 0z, so we’ll see if this is the start of a trend.

Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends

No it struggled with the one big storm we did have it was showing it as 1-3” up to like 24hrs before the event and then we got 7”.

If this verifies for the 3rd then statistically there'll be more to come throughout the season.

the one time we needed to nail a storm it didn't. but that's the euro for you

that looks like white rain south of White Plains, NY. We need a colder solution!

The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right

I think there's some interesting stuff going on up at the H5 levels that is leading to the surface differences between the Euro and GFS. If we look into the Euro's H5 it has a northern piece of energy which destructively interferes with the developing coastal as it seems to string it out. Meanwhile, the GFS firstly deemphasizes this piece of energy and secondly absorbs what's left of it into the system which obviously creates a more amplified storm. At this point who knows which ones is correct but I think is something to watch for

My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th

I think we get it good but having the AI so far south is worrying

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone except the folks skipping dinner because the 18z runs are basically their dinner. Hopefully your relatives understand why you keep “checking the oven” with a phone in your hand.

Atleast there's a 80% probability of a storm, I wouldn't be too worried with thermals as of now. Also with a strong enough storm will drag the cold air in,depending on actual high pressure position.