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0.03” at home. #droughtbusted

Break clouds damn you: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Nammy doesn't look too bad.

SOI daily: Prediction from 6/13………actual 6/14: -15 to -20…….-25 6/15: -6 to -13…….-13 6/16: +5 to -6………..-3 6/17: +8 to -5……….-1 6/18: +16 to +1……….+4 6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)………? 6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2………..?

Sun is coming out quickly here

Yeah, a drought was well overdue. Prior to the drought beginning in September 2024, it had been over 20 years since we had one (the previous one ended in fall 2002).

40/20 tor probs, 70/30 wind

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Massachusetts Central and Eastern New York Vermont * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until 300 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of fast-moving thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the watch area through the early afternoon, posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elmira NY to 25 miles east of Montpelier VT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...WW 351... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 26040.

I’d have a sprinkle of 6/11 with a dash of 6/53 and make it hurt

The sub -5 SOI streak ended at 36 days. The only longer ones back to 1991 are the 51 and 42 day streaks of 1997-8.

Received .07" here last 24 hours (8am - 8am) with most of that from a very localized fast moving heavy downpour yesterday afternoon. Just some very light scattered showers so far this morning and it looks like that will be it for the day. We pin our hopes to Monday for something decent. Signal has been consistent for 1"+ so we wait and see.

Clouds and no rain basically killed the chance for storms later. Looks like that storm Monday stays north. I'm getting worried mandatory water restrictions are coming. Sucks when you make a living using water lol

That encourages a worsening drought over the MA.

Much like today, 6/1/11 was on the radar 7 days in advance as well

Tornado Watch it is for W MA, VT, and E NY until 3pm

Updated drought monitor expands extreme drought to cover Guilford county.

What im hearing is the LP is shown to be actually strengthening as its coming up through Georgia which is why model outputs look a little different this morning. I want to say "for the better" but also showing increased wind and heavy rain may be an issue for limbs and power lines.

FWIW the sun is trying hard to peek through right now

Extreme drought over here per latest update. Cant buy a raindrop.

Crazy SPC was highlighting NYC South for days but the real severe today will be upstate NY to NNE

HRRR has nothing for us. And these long range wetter patterns have not verified. Hopefully Monday works out for something-an inch would be great.

I don’t think it will. Just posted about it, but we have yet another very strong WWB forecasted for the end of this month. That will initiate another DWKW. I think these WWBs end up pushing the entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool east. The new EURO Copernicus multi-model run has the 30C isotherm pushing all the way east to 140W by November

Nice rolling, distant thunder.

Maybe we can toss some cadavers on top of the coop from 2k in VT. My chickens would totally eat the scraps.

Mesoscale Discussion 1181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181331Z - 181530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to shift eastward with potential for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. DISCUSSION...Low topped convection will continue eastward this morning across portions of the Northeast. Strong southerly flow is ushering in higher dew points ahead of this line. Though cloud cover is prominent, further destabilization is expected to occur through filtered heating into the early afternoon with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg progged by the afternoon. Given the strong mid-level flow and low-level jet, damaging wind potential will likely increase into the afternoon. Given strong low-level shear profiles, a couple of tornadoes are also possible. A watch will be needed soon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... PBZ... LAT...LON 43017777 41647945 41407616 41587391 42387246 44077204 44817237 44887508 43017777 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH