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Good post about the MJO from @GaWx in the ENSO thread today. “Just like yesterday, the GEFS and EPS disagree on how long the MJO will stay in phase 8: GEFS: only 6 days though it returns for rd 2 on 12/18: But the EPS, which recently has been much steadier and has been verifying better than GEFS since phase 7, once again is going with a very long phase 8 (16+ days, longest in 50 years): you can’t place an MJO better than this in Dec for E US cold lovers (and it looks to be cold the next 10 days per models though one must remember that there are always other factors to consider due to the complexity of the atmosphere):”

Clearly someone that is bored with dry and cold and near misses to the north and south and needs something to talk about before his rating base leaves him from boredom and enjoys the Holidays without snow! Welcome to La Nina Winter! Nothing is really exciting me but at least we have the first ingredient running around the cold. Guess we better start stirring up the southern jet stream soon if the northern dominant stream allows it.

Unfortunately I’m not optimistic. It’s the second winter already. I sure hope I’m wrong.

Down to 32. Definitely will be the coldest night by far.

30 outside and miserable with the wind. Awful

He's already melting down and we're one week after Thanksgiving. If Taunton gets a 6"+ snow event prior to Xmas even in a coldish December, that's a win. My guess is there's a reasonable shot of that happening this year given the pattern outlook. I don't blame Brett totally though....his formative snow weenie years were very prolific in December even in SE MA. The 2000s were ridiculous relative to climo across SNE, but especially in SE MA in December. Our generation was hard-wired into being cynical about snow given what we had to deal with in our formative years.

If Dale City gets 4 inches I'm Playboi Carti.

Looks like a pretty defined Rain/snow line on Correlation coefficient showing up near John and Daniel:

Light rain and sleet here now. I was a bit concerned as the Temp was running a bit high here and Dews were above Freezing. Would have been better to of had a drier airmass at lower level during onset. Current Temp is 35.7 with 33 Dp. Wise is currently 30 last report.

I‘m not crushed on 12-4. Get the sea temps lower is a good way of looking at it.

Nothing but rain here,gonna be over by the looks pretty soon,back edge is closing in

You should make it the night!

It’s 12/4 Brett…take a frieken break..please.

ORH had back to back single digit lows in Nov 2018. So you know it wasn't fake.

Good point, the 7 pm MDT observation still had wind at 13 mph.

I’ve lived here all my life…I’ve seen some cold Decembers and some not so cold ones too. Flip a coin I guess. The 80’s into the early 90’s were horrific for us winter folks. Mid 90’s crushed it. Then the tear we were on for the majority of the winters from 02-03 up through 20-21 was pretty incredible. So enjoy it as it comes is all you can do.

I’m gonna work on that in the meantime let’s turn that frown upside down.

89 for where? TAN had 3 single digit lows the first week of Dec 2002. CON did multiple single digits mins in mid Nov 2019. That Nov 2018 airmass was pretty brutal too. They had 17/6 on 11/22.

Yes, I know it's 90 %tile, but I just don't understand how this is even remotely possible.

Honestly, I’d be fine with an 0.5”-1” — love snow falling/coating+ with Christmas lights. But definitely upside to 2” boom.

With snow on the ground and highs below freezing through the foreseeable future, this is the first time that December has opened up feeling like winter here in a long time.

Tasty for you and me even without the bump. Hope we aren’t getting strung along

What you are seeing is the former Hoco/Westminister/Psu death band….now known as the Prince William/Springfield/Alexandria death band…at least for the last 4 years

To quote Jerry Troupiano "Way back, WAY BACK!"