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3K NAM looks good for most east of 495 for areas north of the pike.. still a general 14-20".. SEMA/SWCT/RI look great.

Yeah I don’t think we’re completely out of the game by any means. All 12z hi-res guidance has at least some banding making it here. The totals end up being lower because it doesn’t stick around for as long due to a shift east in the track, plus geographic influences as I mentioned earlier.

Had to be expected. The numbers were wild. But still looks like wide spread 10-20. Can’t be too greedy lol

2/22 12z NAM

1.4-1.5” qpf is crap nowadays?

9:15am Columbia— seeing first wet flakes falling among raindrops. At a morning high of 36.5, up 0.5° in last hour.

Eh, you can see that and the SREFs both edging their way northeast and cutting down totals now.

40/36. Moderate to heavy rain. ACY.

Transition is complete in Millers, MD. Pure snow now, with driveways caving and snow accumulation beginning in grass.

Guys are losing their sticks in this one left and right it seems.

Snow accumulating on the grass. I'm actually impressed with these rates.

Finally seeing some snow mix in here in central Frederick

We all knew this could happen.

NAM is such a piece of dog shit. Worst model why i even bother looking at it, i dont know yea cuts back qpf over 60% around us in one run this close in, pretty hilarious

Thank you for this! I've been trying to find one that I can understand. This is much better for amateurs!

Quantity definately better over Eastern and Southeastern MA this run. A squeeze play is taking place here now with these models.

Yeah, that’s exactly what’s happening. Rates temporarily win but it is still way too warm overall. 34.9

WOR vs EOR

Denial and bargaining WOTR.

I am inclined to side with this as well. I mean it does make sense if it occludes too quickly but you still have a good deal of 700mb VV on the northwest side of the low back across CT late Monday morning while NAM is winding down. I still think models are shutting things down a bit too quickly

You’re fine…gonna be great there. The long and short is, It’s a region wide mauling….1ft+-2ft. Some places will see more depending where banding sets up.

White rain. WTF.

fooled by the gfs I guess, it did lead the way.

I did 28” in Jan ‘11 in roughly 12 hours, and that included getting kissed by the dryslot for an hour. It can be done.

Yes, looking out my window a mile south of the beltway here in silver spring, we've got a bit more of a white rain situation. A few parachutes