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That was a fun read in the storm thread. Nobody go grocery shopping yet!!

its been so long since a winter storm phased double phaser would be nice its been so long since we had a triple phased storm

Icon at 06z has mixing issues at the end of the run (120 hours) from about Knox south. From my untrained eye, it looks like high pressure moves eastward too quickly

I want this system to phase so bad. You guys have had to wait so long for a decent snow event. I realize clean phases are hard to achieve because of so many moving parts, but that's not stopping me from willing this one into full glorious reality over our entire sub.

But that wouldn’t be as strong as the biggest worry of all for many, a potential massive highly damaging and long lasting power outage causing icestorm. If the only alternative to nonwintry is a massive icestorm, who other than cray cray wx weenies would want that? Give them mainly 33F+ rain instead, please. Hope to the big guy for their sake that much of it would be sleet, my favorite wintry precip these days! I may consider a trip to ATL for this weekend IFF the odds of a massive icestorm are low and instead odds of a big sleetstorm with possibly a bonus of some snow along with only a fairly limited amount of ZR are high.

How are we losing out on the 50oMB .

Earlier tonight the Ukie crushed the Mid Atlantic.

Icon looked pretty good

Hopefully today’s runs will show a less amped solution that keeps the LP more to the south.

Gfs all snow southern valley up to a foot on the 0z models at 10 to 1 probably be higher I'll take that. Icon 0z was a slider to all snow only the euro took a northern route hopefully it jogs back south today.

Well. Gil from our local weather station is now saying Snow is increasingly likely for Sunday and Monday. He must have liked the trends, especially the Euro tonight.

I’m up. 200+ new replies. It must be good! Just saw the ens maps - I love where we are sitting right now, and its now <84 hrs where the models are phasing the two streams.

EURO looks great nice to see movement north on some overnight last night

This looks promising for the LV

6z NAM at 84hrs phasing much better than the 0z GFS Exciting

Freezing rain look at sounding it stays below freezing the whole time.

Last night's models are scary 8 inches of snow then rain and 28 degrees we might never have power.

Mmm.. don't like what I'm seeing at 00z. All models taking a big step to the CMC. Euro now has a lot of mixing. We are trending away from a slider and more to an amped up LP. Going to cause tons of mixing issues and likely rain for East TN. Not a good trend at all. And it's across all models.

Had a snow squall at some point last night. Everything covered

What's going on there between 00 and 06 Tue, is that not a retrograde or a transfer to the northwest as the pressure drops ?

Looks to be a big change in the ongoing winter season pattern this weekend/early next week. Considering all the recent abnormal December and especially Christmas week winter heat in 2025. 'Doesn't look like any extreme cold to worry about as ensembles are not gung ho at all on an Arctic airmass plunge into the state or even the surface High and its strength. Even though the AO is going deeper into a negative phase, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) remains in positive phase, also. The MJO has reemerged into the favorable latter phases (6 - 8) and looks to remain there the next few weeks at least. So precip odds for the state should get better going forward, and could make some frozen precip over the eastern half of state a distinct possibility this weekend. The PNA should remain in a positive phase as well.

The AI models are all trending south the last 4 runs. This is going to be a big test for them.

This system will accrete a lot of ice in ATL. I like where I am for this. Just cold and windy.

The biggest worry at this point has to be how far amped and north can this get? That HP will help, but it is beginning to retreat especially with the later timing. That phase of the Baja low out west can continue to bring this north some in my opinion. The further west it phases the more it’s going to pump the SE ridge and wanna steer the low track further inland. I would only feel super confident in far Northern NC and Virginia at this point.

It would certainly be easier to shovel. Luckily, for now at least, that model (the Canadian) seems to be on an island by itself showing a near perfect phase that makes the storm so amped it pulls hard north and west and brings the mixing and freezing rain much further into the Commonwealth. .