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Congrats NJ to DXR

Congrats DXR southwest

Really the south coast within about 30 miles ish

My take is that we're .1 or .2 warmer than 1997, some 29 years ago, and despite the warming/warnings, neither the world nor mankind has ended as a result of GW. Enjoy the weekend all.

Yer gettin all sequiter about something thrown out there, rather tongue in cheekquiter. This is because there's no reasonable discussion to be had of our now poisoned Well of Ontario.

Looks like we are on track to end August with <2 ACE points. Currently sitting at .9 points.

Remnants Of Dolly Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026 During the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of NOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. Examination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not readily indicate any westerly winds south of the center. Based on this, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and forecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, with those winds occurring north of the vorticity center. The system is moving 280/22 kt, and this motion should continue for the next 24 h. After that time, a general westward to west- northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should take the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or Sunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week. The system is currently in a hostile environment with significant southwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue for at least the next 2-3 days, and the remnants should slowly weaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 h of points where the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a well-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to decrease below 35 kt, and the system center is expected to become less well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical Weather Outlooks. This is the last advisory on Dolly issued by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/0000Z 15.6N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 29/1200Z 16.4N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Monthly rain: EWR: 10.16 NYC: 8.49 LGA: 7.84 JFK: 7.46 PHL: 7.43 TTN: 7.34

Just post it saying SW CT bullseye and you'll be right.

Of course, though we got all of 0.03" last evening, along with a near miss TS that terrorized our dog. We've had 5 rain events in the past 2 weeks for a grand total of 0.18". drip, drip, drip

Rainfall 8/27 EWR: 2.32 PHL: 2.32 TTN: 1.16 NYC: 0.45 ISP: 0.22 LGA: 0.18 JFK: 0.1

It’s been fall up here for the last week and a half. It’s coming. 9.78” at WXW1 since July 1. Just incredible rainfall in southern CT, but it’s been your year. Big snows, big storms, big rains…

Go get them Wiz!!!

Where is that? Nationally last year wasn't close to 1995-1996. Here is the PNA from last winter DJFM: 2026 -1.41 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 That is very favorable?? It was the orientation of the PV that saved us, not the PNA. Very predictable outcome considering the high solar/extreme easterly QBO predisposition towards intense mid winter +TNH regimes. In fact, strong +TNH is often accompanied by RNA. It did coincide with an interval of PNA from mid January into February in this case, which probably heightened it, but the PNA was not last winter's defining teleconnection. Strong +TNH season.

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (1948) NYC: 100 (1948) LGA: 99 (1948) JFK: 98 (1973) Lows: EWR: 51 (1941) NYC: 50 (1885) LGA: 54 (1986) JFK: 53 (1986) Historical: 1816: Frosts continue in New England i 1898 - Torrents of rain accompanied by a furious wind upset the rain gage at Fort Mohave AZ. However, water in a wash tub set out on the mesa, clear of everything, measured eight inches after the 45 minute storm. (The Weather Channel) 1911 - Saint George, GA, was deluged with 18.00 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1954: Thunderstorm winds and hail struck Alachua and Orange Counties in Florida. A tornado touched down briefly in Orlando and ripped up three large oaks. Considerable wind damage to roofs and several automobiles were hit by falling trees. A child was killed by lightning at Lake City, FL. Several others were injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1959 - Lieutenant Colonel William Rankin bailed out of his plane at a height of 46,000 feet into a violent thunderstorm, and lived to write about the 45 minute journey (which normally would have been a thirteen minute descent). He described it as one of the most bizarre and painful experiences imaginable. (The Weather Channel) 1964: NASA launched the first NIMBUS weather satellite. More advanced than the pioneering TIROS satellites, the NIMBUS program featured new cameras and sensors that continued well into the 1970s. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968: One man was seriously injured by lightning while riding on a roller coaster at a Denver, CO amusement park. An airline employee was injured when lightning struck a jetliner he was servicing at Stapleton International Airport. A lightning caused fire did extensive damage to a house and to several others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971 - Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Doria caused devastating floods in central and northeast New Jersey resulting in 138 million dollars damage. In southeastern Pennsylvania, high winds downed trees and power lines, and in New York City, heavy rains flooded streets and subways. (David Ludlum) 1973 - An F4 tornado touched down near Canaan, New York, and moved to western Massachusetts. Three people were killed in West Stockbridge, Massachusetts when a truck stop was destroyed, and another person died in a ruined house nearby. 1974: Central New Jersey--Lightning resulted in one death. Sanford, NC -- A woman in her backyard was hit by lightning and died in a hospital. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1977: Severe flooding hit parts of southwest Oklahoma after 8 to 10 inches of rain fell over the area. The hardest hit areas were between the West Cache and Blue Beaver Creeks, near the communities of Cache, Faxon, and Medicine Park, all in Comanche County. Six children had to be rescued by helicopter from a knoll between the two creeks, while several other families had to be evacuated. Damage was quite severe as many houses reportedly had two to four feet of water flowing through them. The floods also washed away several bridges. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1978: Hail up to six inches deep was recorded during a severe thunderstorm at Colorado Springs, CO. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1980: Two inches of snow fell at Sherman Pass, WA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1982: A strong cold front pushed through bringing record low temperatures across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Record lows included: International Falls, MN: 30°, Duluth, MN: 34°, Marquette, MI: 36°, Lansing, MI: 36°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 37°-Tied.(Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1985: In the early morning hours eight inches of rain pounded Le Mars, IA. Every home in town had some problems and houses that had never had water in their basements suddenly had 6 inches of water standing on their floors. Later that afternoon, more severe weather developed in northwest Iowa pounding several counties with golfball size hail and high winds in excess of 60 mph. Window and tree damage was extensive across Emmett, O'Brien, Cherokee, Clay, Buena Vista and Plymouth Counties. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986 - The temperature at Apalachicola, FL, dipped to 62 degrees to shatter their previous August record by four degrees, having tied their August record high of 99 degrees on the 2nd of the month. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms broke the heat in the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf Coast Region, but not before seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph downing large trees around Horse Shoe NC, and pelted southeastern Meridian MS with hail two inches in diameter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Tropical Storm Chris spawned a tornado near Manning, SC, which killed one person, and spawned three tornadoes in North Carolina. Chris produced one to two foot tides, and three to six inch rains, over coastal South Carolina. Severe thunderstorms in New York State and Vermont, developing ahead of a cold front, spawned a tornado which killed one person at Hector NY, produced tennis ball size hail at Brandon VT, and produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Lyndonville VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 4.50 inches of rain around McCook, and 4.65 inches near Auburn and Brownville. Showers in Montana pushed the rainfall total for the month at Havre past the previous August record of 3.90 inches. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Between 3:15 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. a devastating F5 tornado ripped a 16.4 mile-long path through portions of Kendall and Will counties in northern Illinois. A total of 29 people were killed, and 350 more were injured. An estimated $160 million in damages occurred. The tornado's path width ranged from 200 yards to half a mile. A total of 470 homes were destroyed, and another 1000 homes were damaged. Sixty-five thousand customers lost power. 1992: The coolest August temperature ever recorded in Wichita Falls, TX when the temperature fell to a cool 53°. Rapidly intensifying Typhoon Omar cut right across the U.S. territory of Guam in the western Pacific. At the time of landfall winds were sustained at 125 mph around the eye. Anderson Air Force Base had sustained winds of 104 mph with a peak gust to 150 mph, recorded a pressure reading of 945.8 millibars or 27.93 inches of mercury, and was deluged with 16.41 inches of rain. Agana Naval Air Station reported wind gusts exceeding 170 mph and a low pressure reading of 932 millibars or 27.52 inches of mercury. One person was killed, 132 people were injured, over 4,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, and total damage was $487 million dollars. This was the strongest typhoon to strike Guam since Typhoon Pamela in 1976. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: Snow plows in the summer! Hail mostly three quarter inches in diameter but a few stones as large as 1 1/4 inches in diameter fell on the west side of Silver City, New Mexico for 40 minutes and accumulated to a depth of 6 inches. Many vehicles were stranded until snow plows could clear hail from the roadways. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) 2002: A very far to the north occurrence for this phenomenon. A funnel cloud was seen and photographed from near Wonder Lake in, AK’s Denali National Park. The funnel appeared several miles north of the lake; the bottom of the visible funnel almost touched the ground. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2003: Two men were struck and injured by a nearby lightning strike at the Albemarle County, VA Fair in the North Garden area of the county. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 2005 - Hurricane Katrina attained Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbars (26.6 inHg).

Picked up .50" rainfall from event that just wrapped up. So glad we avoided anything heavy in my immediate area. Soils are wet and with the declining sun angle they are taking longer to dry out. August rainfall: 8.34". Rainfall Y.T.D.: 41.15". We'll see if wet pattern holds into and through the Fall. Might be headed for a 50" rainfall year. At this point I'm willing to bet on the over.

Socked in with low clouds and you look at satellite and realize it's clear like 10 miles west of me lol

78 / 68 partly - mostly cloudy humid. Front clears through later today and we'll see if showers/storms are isolated. Great weekend and extended through Monday clear / mostly clear low - mid 80s and dry. The ridge comes in but clouds / showers may keep temps down Tue - Thu, otherwise overall warm to much warmer than normal 8/30 - 9/7 and beyond.

Might start a thread for Monday - Wednesday (with a focus on Wednesday) just because I feel like it and people can post their feels about how they won't get anything

Quick update for virtually all of July and August

It was only 0.3 degrees warmer than 95-96 and 10-11. But the fact that 10-11 had much more -PNA shows that we need a more ideal pacific to produce the same cold.

First week looks above average

0.25 last night.. 1.60 monthly total... 5.19 since May - 3 month total...