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I was thinking this too as a result of the continued westward drift. It also avoids the highest terrain if it stays west. As for intensity, the NE eyewall most definitely came ashore at peak intensity. Perhaps it filled a few mb before the center crossed but being the strongest winds were already onshore it does not matter

It probably peaked about 3 hours ago, but my guess is second LF into Cuba as a high end major. Probably 125kts if I had to guess.

As we are all rightfully concerned with the impact on Jamaica right now, I also want to take a moment to discuss the environment after Melissa leaves Jamaica. What happens next is highly dependent on structure--how much the mountainous terrain disrupt Melissa's inner core. Melissa has an very small core. On one hand, that increases the odds that over the coming hours the center is significantly disrupted, reducing the risk of reintensification over water. On the other, such an intense inner core is inertially stable, making it possible that if a strong enough core emerges from the coast, it is able to take advantage of the environment, if favorable enough. The key is shear, and Melissa is straddling the line (and has been lately) between favorable and more modest deep layer shear. Looking at the environment however, shear may not be as much of an issue until Melissa crosses Cuba. In fact, the shear has been subtly declining ahead of its path. The extraordinarily favorable thermal environment that helped Melissa become an upper echelon C5 isn't quite as favorable after Jamaica, but it seems to be plenty if Melissa has the time and space to reorganize. Finally, the diurnal cycle that has helped Melissa may prove favorable once again as the storm approaches Cuba later tonight. Just something to keep in mind. All dependent on how much the core is disrupted today. (Edit: and what the actual shear profile is later)

Yeah, sure that's the only reason. Not the fact it rained 30 inches over 5-6k ft peaks with gusts of over 80 mph leading to hundreds of landslides, some of them miles long. Helene flooded plenty of areas outside of flood plains.

The water is about the same but shear will be gradually increasing.

Note that the 30C+ area around Jamaica did shrink a lot due to some cooling although unfortunately not nearly enough cooling to help.

BAM Wx is the dregs man

It’s moving almost due North, right along 78W. It should be back over water in 2-3 hours. It’s a much shorter trip than if it was moving more Northeasterly. It also will keep it over water longer before reaching Cuba.

The only reason the damage was bad for Helene was because so many communities built in the floodplain of the creeks and rivers.

What are the water temps between Jamaica and Cuba? That will play a factor. If they are just as warm I would think it would have to strengthen some.

Like an angry hornet and Jamaica just stepped on it's nest

Yeah I wonder if Melissa will be able to regroup once it gets back over water. I know that wind shear is going to become a factor too.

That’s the thing, in the video he said that in fact homes in jamaica are often built a good bit above the river anyway. The threat (according to him) is moreso landslides/rockslides caused by huge amounts of rain falling on crumbling and steep terrain, rather than houses getting swept away by the water itself.

Satellite estimates say 160,161 knot winds when it made landfall

Right, but probably a bit cooler.

It seems like intensification was reinvigorated when it began moving a bit more readily, so upwelling may have slowed the rate a bit for a spell.

Holy shit! The video of the eye over land is going to be wild. I'm afraid the whole western side of the island is going to be flattened. What a humbling display of power by mother nature.

True enough - I wasn't really addressing landslides, just flooding water volume. In that respect yeah - the landslides will certainly be worse. River flow is a direct function of land area X rainfall rate/level right? While the normal flow might be higher on a per-land-area-served basis; presumably that's due to Jamaica getting more rain during normal periods than NC; given an equal amount of heavy rainfall though they both would flow the same of course. That said - one key difference here may simply be the very *fast* dumping of rain in certain areas; moreso than Helene where the rate of rainfall wasn't as fast as Melissa. So tributaries will probably be worse-off for short periods than Helene. FWIW - I've driven through a lot of the Helene areas. While the damage was really bad; it wasn't "wipe large areas off the map" bad. The bad thing about Helene was that the damage was spread over a *huge* area - like several dozen Jamaicas.

This is what happens, especially when you consider the high terrain. But, the Northeastern portion of the eye wall is already more than halfway across.

so after melissa is the season done?

It slowed down quite a bit at landfall.

not only was the water temps 30c but the water is warm and deep in the part of the caribbean..

yeah the warm water was alot deeper in this region something like 600 feet down