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Rates are increasing quickly

Looking at radar looks like we'll be in these tropical downpours for a while. Up to a little over an inch here in Blowing Rock and still gusty. Moisture fetch stretches all the way down into Georgia-currently very little east motion on it.

Lucky man, I miss watching a sunrise with my pops while in the deer woods.

Mid 70's inland, but a Lake breeze has kept temps in the upper 50's to mid 60's along the shore depending on how close to the water you are.

Not really that just means Jefferson or Addison or both aren't quite ready

Color continues to seem ahead of schedule. Next weekend may he peak here. Im planning to do some weekend leaf peeping.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 430 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT. * AT 428 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER APPLETON, OR NEAR ALLENDALE, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... KLINE. *Edit 5PM supercell has traveled 50 miles since tornado first spotted

Ill worry about a mid season flip after Christmas. The initial thing of interest will be during the assumably more hostile beginning part of winter, how much snow can we squeak out in the more northern locations. Will also be interesting to see if the Lakes can crank some goods in November. Its been over a decade since we have NOT seen a good November cold shot with snow. And in fact, several Novembers have been snowier than December in that time.

My dad and I went out and did some crabbing this morning. The high clouds from the storm to the SW made for a stunning sunrise as we we're coming out of Annopoils towards our crabbing grounds.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 430 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT. * AT 428 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER APPLETON, OR NEAR ALLENDALE, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... KLINE. *Edit 5PM storm has traveled 50 miles since tornado first spotted

forky kills 16 weenies with 1 post

Curious as to what tonight will look like as the cooler air settles in. I work an overnight at the hospital so i'll be in full weenie mode. Hope all of our southern GA neighbors are making it ok, especially as we continue through the evening.

I wish. Probably end up like 12k Nam and I’ll get .5”

0419 PM TORNADO 5 SSW APPLETON 32.97N 81.40W 10/10/2026 ALLENDALE SC STORM CHASER LIVE STREAM SHOWED ACTIVE TORNADO ON THE GROUND, CAUSING TREES TO BE SHREDDED AND DEBRIS TO BE LOFTED. ROOF AND SIDING WERE ALSO RIPPED OFF MANUFACTURED HOME, AND POWER LINES WERE SNAPPED.

Still wanted to see more rain,the system seemed to open up much sooner than what was modeled,the dry air getting funneled at every level has wrecked this system,disappointing

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 .Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as the remnants of Isaias track across the region starting early Sunday morning. Storms should be highly efficient rainfall producers given the tropical nature of the air mass. In particular, the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge have the potential to see the most rainfall given the continued easterly upslope winds. A further eastward expansion of these watches may be needed. VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-507-508-110300- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0018.261011T0900Z-261012T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Airlie, Greenfield, Madison Run, Nasons, Orange, Fordsville, Washington, Rapidan, Charlottesville, Twymans Mill, Stevensburg, Cardova, Montebello, Bethel, Madison Mills, Hackleys Crossroads, Overton, Culpeper, Five Forks, Rock Mills, Unionville, Catalpa, Warrenton, Chester Gap, Reva, Everona, Burr Hill, Flint Hill, Lahore, Turnbull, Winston, Castleton, Skyland, and Shady Grove 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest Virginia, including the following areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene, Nelson and Orange. In northern Virginia, Culpeper, Northern Fauquier and Southern Fauquier. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock. * WHEN...From late tonight through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The remnants of Isaias will bring a tropical air mass much into the Mid-Atlantic region late tonight into Sunday. Storms should be highly efficient in this environment and capable of producing several inches of rain throughout the duration of the event. Storm total rainfall is expected to be around 2 to 3 inches, with pockets of 3 to 5 inches along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Mild weather continues. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the middle 60s. The first half of next week will also feature highs in the middle and upper 60s. Cooler weather will likely arrive for the second half of next week. Rain and showers are likely tomorrow into Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. Overall, the region will likely see 0.50"-1.50" of rain with some locally higher amounts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -0.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.600 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.1° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

On ground nearly 2 hours and still being shown on that live stream! Highly unusual to say the least, especially in the SE!

Looks bad on radar

1990s winters here were warmer than 2000s or 2010s winters. Weather always ebbs and flows regardless of the earth's overall warming, and warming is not evenly distributed. I agree 1980s winters were largely cold, especially the first half of the decade. But it was coming off the brutally cold 1970s winters, just decades removed from the much, much milder winters of the 1930s-50s. Weather is not going to stop being weather, so i really disagree with too much of trying to take a previous warm enso event at face value and then just assuming we need to add x amount of additional warmth to every locations weather because its years or decades later. Its pointlessly trying to be too meticulous.

Live coverage of Screven Cty, GA, and now Allendale Cty, SC, tornado!

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Given the continued signal of 2 to 3 inches of rainfall, locally higher along/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, have issued Flood Watches for Sunday. These are in effect from the Blue Ridge eastward to just west of the D.C. metro area. Some further eastward expansions may be needed. Gale Warnings have been hoisted over the southern waters for Sunday morning given the potential for 35 knot southeasterly gusts. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias to bring rain, breezy to windy conditions, and the threat of tornadoes Sunday. - 2) Above normal temperatures Tuesday will fall the second half of the week as moisture starved fronts move through. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias to bring rain, breezy to windy conditions, and the threat of tornadoes Sunday. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues to lift northward across Georgia and Alabama. This system has weakened considerably after last evening`s landfall while losing all tropical characteristics. The associated mid-level circulation strengthens and becomes a large cutoff low later tonight. To the east, surface high pressure over the northeastern U.S. today moves offshore off southern New England tonight. In advance of this broad area of low pressure, a thick high cirrus shield continues to expand north and east into the Great Lakes and New England. While this system still looms well to the southwest of the area, some light scattered showers continue to lift across I-64 toward the I-66 corridor. However, any amounts are very light with some radar returns not even reaching the ground. The thick cloud cover will hold temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon. Looking ahead, the interaction of Isaias` remnants to the west and surface high to the east will create a large area of convergence / broad frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic. There is good model agreement that rain steadily moves from south to north this evening into tonight as forcing for ascent increases with some mid-level height falls in response to the approaching cutoff low. It will take a bit of time for the surface to truly saturate, so any rainfall this afternoon to evening across central Virginia will struggle to amount to much. Eventually, tropical moisture with PWATs at or above 2" surges in after midnight. It is worth mentioning again that conditions are favorable for a widespread soaking rain, and 12Z and 00Z models have responded with more QPF across the region. Forcing for ascent increases tonight, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low. Enhanced low-level convergence and moisture transport will peak Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Strengthening easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to orographic effects. As a result, forecast rain amounts have increased to 2.0-3.0", with locally higher amounts of 3-5" possible. With this uptick, Flood Watches were issued across the Blue Ridge eastward into the central Virginia Piedmont region. This is in effect on Sunday 5 AM until Monday 2 AM. Some eastward expansion may be necessary if models trends hold on or show further upticks. Another noticeable trend in recent guidance is the higher probabilities for severe weather Sunday afternoon. The main synoptically forced rain moves north of the area early Sunday afternoon. Rapid height falls and increasing low-level winds provide a few hour window where some breaks in the clouds area possible, leading to pockets of instability. A surface wave of low pressure moves right through the area Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large, cyclonic hodographs, with ample shear in place to support organized severe convection. Clusters of thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of the surface low pressure, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the main threats (looks mostly to be east of the Blue Ridge). The NAM12, RRFS, and 12Z HRRR all show this scenario. The big question still remains how much instability actually develops. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for Sunday, with a recent northward expansion to just south of I-66 in Virginia. The strong mid-level circulation is going to bring windy conditions to the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge, starting late tonight into Sunday morning. Wind Advisories were issued for downsloping easterly winds in the Alleghenies (western Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties), and the Blue Ridge. The current forecast for peak wind gusts is 40-50 mph in the Alleghenies/Blue Ridge and 20-30 mph elsewhere. The remnants of Isaias push offshore Monday, bringing an end to any lingering showers. While conditions return humid and warm Monday, there likely will not be much in the way of shower activity due to subsidence behind the departing trough.