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It's a slight statistical anomaly, but there is no signal on the 3rd Winter going either way, besides what is normal for El Nino.

Isn’t this winter the type of winter everyone was wondering why we didn’t get anymore? The clipper winter.

I’m not sure the preceding two winters being cold really have anything to do with it, does it? It could just be that an El Niño is typically mild where the map is mild and would look that way even if the two preceding winters were mild.

Yup, west of you and in the valley.

Kind of an interesting gradient pattern setting up latter half of Feb. Models have been leaning on the colder side too, overall prob near normal which is good enough for snow chances.

Monterey VA will. Bet that is the snow capital of Virginia. We should descend on that place

37 for the high 33.1 currently

You’re in Ellington right? Had 1” even here . But just west in valley was less

I got a dusting of sleet out of that, let alone an inch.

With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year: This Winter (25-26) so far: DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino: Winter 25-26 so far: And that's going to get closer to a match, as we are in -PNA for the remainder of February. The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like? ^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples: So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought.

soon!

Brother. We wont see snow out here either.

Dont worry guys only a few weeks out and we have another ULL bowling through haha

Oh Boy.....

That was a different setup with best north . Instead it was 1-3” SOP and 2- 4 north, This one ( if this north trend is real) would drop snow south of 90

I still feel bad for those in the screw zone, but everytime I see this I chuckle a bit too hard.

"ineedhelp", awesome!!

Drove down to Concord today for an MRI. It really is a different world down there. Bright sunshine, gorgeous late winter day. Snowed all day up here and came back to light snow still falling and snow covered roads. Got out for a few runs early this morning and the skiing was outer worldly. Pure champagne powder.

SREFs?

Similar to a dust devil? Temp thing??

Yep. Got 18” from this last little storm

Only about 1/2" less

It would’ve been nice to see the euros improve but such marginal changes from their previous OP runs. See what the ens say in a sec (I’d gamble they are worse, but ya never know)

I've moved on from snow to Nascar Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk