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Probably why the models have been jumping around so much. Little shifts have a big impact. So the possibilities are still there as this is just Friday

So what you are saying is- both the 12z CMC op and EURO op are now more like the GFS op, with some snow for I-95 and east. Seems like a favorable trend.

The Euro ideas down in SC/GA aloft have never budged much the last 48 hours...it was always a bit too dry down there as were many other models. I have been on the train of be wary in GA/SC even back as far as ATL/GSP to see this thing make a late push back NW. Eric Webb has been pumping that idea on X too.

Yeah, gotta hope at least somebody gets something out of it. All this time tracking for it to whiff the entire southeast would just suck lol. Ensembles last night looked promising for the 4th week of the month but get me inside 3 days and maybe I’ll feel okay about it.

oh i see what the AI Euro's doing there. it's contracted the QPF around the NW arc by small amts, while the low is both a couple mb deeper and tracking slightly NW of previous runs. that's a consolidating going on

I need to move somewhere that gets more snow. Currently looking at Beech Mountain, or Valdosta.

Yep, sometimes you know it’s fake or overdone when the model dynamics don’t look impressive. Likewise, well often talk about how the model QPF prob isn’t reflecting the dynamics far enough NW on other systems. What makes this system so tough is we have a negatively tilted shortwave with vortmax running up and usually that’s a slam dunk for a biggish event, but in this case, we’re racing against the attenuation of it….and very small shifts can make a large impact on the sensible wx of it. If you attenuate it too quickly, it never starts to “capture” the sfc in the Atlantic and get those conveyors cranking…but a slightly stronger/consolidated vort will start to capture all the lower level circulation and very quickly crank out heavier QPF

Euro good for part of the panhandle, SE Georgia, and the Lowcountry. Surface temps are iffy. Tries to throw RAH a bone.

Hmmm. Just sayin. Don't watch the show so not sure if this was an episode that already ran. Wouldn't allow me to use a link.

I don’t trust the GFS at all this year - I’m looking at it as a total outlier entirely. ECM is really the only one worth watching IMO.

They're all useful. They are just tools falling into the wrong hands.

The EuroAI QPF extensiveness just looks suspect to me

I think we’re slowly narrowing the goalposts. NAM is flattest, AIGFS most amped

yeah for the last hour - maybe he is finally working.....

Other thread!

Euro doesn't even have much rain.

Yeah I agree. I know the end result maybe wasn’t ideal, but I’d rather have improved H5 look vs a H5 look that was worse but gave more QPF. Tha would be a red flag.

That vort is going to be so key….if it can stay a bit stronger/consolidated longer, it’s going to force the WCB action more which will directly help heights rise ahead of the system.

That's a pretty good synopsis of this thread, minus the mania.

If the AI actually pulls this out of its ass, all of us AI skeptics owe you several high end cocktails at a GTG. And none of that IPA crap either

Just stopped for lunch in Oquossoc at Bald Mtn Camps, Took a look at the page count from this morning and that’s all I need to see, We will get more snow up here with tomorrows system then Sunday.

Finally you're starting to get it. Im proud of you.

Its amazing how quickly it just slings up the coast. Basically goes from LA to the northern mid-Atlantic within 12 hours lol

I actually gotta work and can’t look. 1-2 for who?