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Agreed on this

Did you mean January 2016?

39 here. We can asterisk your temps now that they are confirmed as 1 degree too low...

Never got above 41 here today and is currently 30. The torch, thaw, respite from the cold December or whatever you want to call it is over.

Euro

That’s what it shows. What do you think verbatim means? Simsbury wins again.

Keep trying lol

Where I agree is that meteorologists can use local knowledge combined with model output to occasionally outforecast a global model locally, in the short range, and for limited parameters like surface temperature. But forecasters who think they can outforecast a global weather model at the synoptic scale or in the mid-range are deluding themselves. They are susceptible to all sorts of biases that convince them that their gut feelings are superior (confirmation bias, availability heuristic, confidence bias etc).

Everything I’ve read about AI suggests deep learning which SHOULD make it improve with time. I’ve been involved in AI models for screening major disease and the performance is NOT worse than human. Humans have to determine the relevance of the results in terms of management but I’m seeing some evidence of a “head in the sand” approach to anything AI. I think that logic is inherently flawed.

What would make a difference is whether that pacific trough breaks through. If it stops short in the GOA, it'll keep the +PNA ridge going. If it breaks through into western canada, the +PNA will break down and we go warmer (speaking generally across CONUS, east may be slowest to warm even in that scenario).

Luck you, dropped from 44 this morning to 37 this afternoon.

The record low max for Boston is 2. For the airport it's 6 (1943, 1968). 10 days below 10 since 1936, three of which occurred in 2004. So yeah, I'm skeptical this verifies.

Verbatim a nice WoR deal into the monads.

Ground based and airborne cloud seeding. Probably is not a conversation for this thread, but in WY they utilize silver iodide to enhance snowfall in the Salt Range in order to help squeeze out water from systems. I have always wondered how that affects downstream weather, ie the system has less precip after it is treated. I have seen the ground based system in Star Valley, WY. It is near Grover up on a hill. It is the snowiest place in that entire valley. https://cowboystatedaily.com/2022/12/08/not-voodoo-wyoming-expands-cloud-seeding-amid-prolonged-drought/

Even the SREF plumes backed off at 3pm for East TN compared to 9am. At 9am we probably had around 10 plumes showing a decent snowfall for Knoxville. Now, there are only 2 showing a good snowfall. I'm still hoping a miracle can happen, but trends definitely are not looking good (shocking I know).

Clown range hrrr but takes the first slug of moisture north into NoP area and then in the aftn a new slug develops but temps have warmed a bit.

I agree! After pondering, I just reduced that 40% to 30% for my newsletter which sails at 4 pm. If it still populates with significance at 24 hrs., that 30% can increase to 50%. Of course, some weenies are already hyped to 80%, which is a recipe for heartbreak. Some of those read my newsletter. That's another reason to drop to 30% with a caveat about 9 days out. Snow-lovers thrive on hope. I don't wish to be the snow grinch to others. 30% can be a happy median. 40% is a little too bullish.

What is the chance that DC gets the absolute minimum amount of snow needed to get taken out of the running for this year’s futility thread?

Good chance of single digits

Thank you both. I really appreciate the explanation!

That’s where I’m at too. Good post. I’m definitely curious how they perform in high leverage situations…like Sunday night lol.

That's a fair point. I didn't want to get technical, but I'll restate it as, "the ceiling for AI should be that of current NWP + bias correction." I've mentioned in the past that AI should be used to bias-correct ic/bcs, so I don't disagree. On top of bias-correction, I imagine the analysis datasets already incorporate 'nudging.' This is only done for the ic/bcs prior to initialization though, so you'd still need to do gridded bias correction post-simulation.

please do!

I think someone in the area will get a little snow band Saturday and get maybe 1-2” won’t really know where till game time.

I don't remember that one as much...but...I was happily married at the time, and we both had 2 weeks off work...so I was...umm....busy