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@CoastalWx may be on to something here beating the boring drum as the focus turns to natgas, pipelines and domestic policies rather than weather

Natural gas prices are state regulated by PURA. They have to submit rate increases and get them approved similar to electricity. I believe its every 6 months like electricity so the price is extremely stable for 6 months.

The reason that area near the Bahamas and Gulf has been relatively quiet despite low shear is mostly due to how hostile it is east of there, in the MDR where most of the disturbances originate from that could cause storms to form there. Waves and weak storms like Dolly simply are not able to make it west to take advantage of the better conditions. As said above, fronts digging down into the gulf or the fall CAG would be the likely source of anything tropical in those areas. Edouard showed us that it’s possible to get homegrown systems this year, and the likelihood of another ramps up as fall fronts start to make it to the gulf. However, these aren’t ever home runs for development and stronger fronts usually favor more wind shear and dry air as we get later into the fall. The window for something strong to take advantage of these ribbons of favorable conditions is not huge, but if the Atlantic produces anything of note it will likely originate in these two areas as the rest of the basin is completely cooked by shear

-.83 today

i am one of those people who prefer a cool summer..

I wonder if that Amazon Prime jet was able to be unloaded and have the packages get to their destinations, eventually. (maybe they're still unloading and dealing with the cargo.)

I'm actually totally fine with whatever happens. Don't need the extreme cold though

All time worst winter. we were ice skating on the bay last winter so whatever happens this year I’ll take it

This is an 'Andy Rooney': Not sure what the preoccupation for defining the culpability pie slices is all about in baking the end of the world. It's also perfunctory that nature provides cataclysms - yeah. okay. 'why are you telling us this' like it's novel? It seems attempting to dole out blame as being less because of anthropomorphic forcing is like seeking permission to keep doing it. The role of humanity is actively problematic to the world. That still exists, either way. - as an aside... there is an apparent lack of applied physical science backgrounds that echoes in the way voices are sounding off. It's coming across as regurgitated skepticism from other sources, those that push backs against human caused environmental urgency in a way that is fairly obviously rooted in agenda, at best sketchy motivated - Increasing melt water destabilizes land... that's just perfunctory. All this stuff about needing research isn't actually necessary because of that factored reality; that is already known. The amount of x-y-z should be less meaningful if you helped the killer aim the gun. Your contribution is not 0. At some point, that which is known needs to be applied as a common sense approach - otherwise you're waiting around to reinvent the wheel every time you have to jump in the care to go for a ride. You're not doing that - right? No need to prove melt water, plied to a bedrock - when it was visibly doing so - is going to cause a reaction. It's also a bad term, bed'rock' - when the generic ear hears bedrock ... they hear rock. Like a solid impenetrable igneous or granite-like substance. It's more like compact sedimentary deposits covered over by other regolith-ice composites that were the destabilizing aspects. Also, cracking deeper is perfunctory in repeating thaw and freezes, an oscillation of phase change forces that have been incurring with greater frequency over recent decades. All of this is not debatable. And as that has occurred post antecedent and ongoing concurrent warmer than normal setting that is heavily correlated already to CC breaching the high country up there... I don't believe your going to get a really 'in depth' report any more than than you would over whether wheels are round. stop this. Again, what is the purpose... this latter aspect is still happening, and since the variable cites fit it 100%, there's no use - humanity does not escape culpability.

lol - I was there from 2008-2010 in grad school. I did root for the Phillies in the 08 World Series because I wanted to party in the streets. But I just can't do it - particularly since the Phillies have several of our old players. I'm less of a diehard Commanders/Redskins fan, but I can't pull for the Iggles lol.

My thoughts on this winter, it is going to suck.

Yeah man, this is good stuff. Brings back some nostalgia for 93-94.

Thanks for posting that. Regarding the PNA based on analyses I’ve done on snowfall for SE cities like RDU and ATL, a +PNA is the #1 most correlated index to snow in the SE. Since El Niño and +PNA are well correlated, having El Niño on average tends to be good relative to other ENSO for SE snow chances in general.

He's even got those miller, B's transferring off the carolina coast. This is a good man that knows how to look out for our best interest.

I think the map shows preexisting. The new line was going to connect the Algonquin and the Tennessee pipelines in PA and NY, follow the right of way of the Tennessee into western Mass, then run a new line across northern Mass into NH.

I know the Algonquin has been there for many years and is still used today . I used to ride dirt bikes along it back in the day.

Had a low of 54 here as well with a current high temp of 75.

Do you happen to know if the pipelines shown on that map are preexisting or were they part of the proposal you mentioned?

I haven't been active in this thread so apologize if it's already been shared before, but Dr. Jonathan Wall has a great project developed on his website at https://snow.wall.cloud/ You can dive really deep into and compare statistical significance of various teleconnections for a few different snowfall criteria (i.e. trace of snow at 10% or more of stations, 25% of stations measuring 0.1" or more snow, total event coverage or magnitude of snow totals, etc), and all of this broken down by NWS CWAs. But what's neat is you can also break it down further with these various teleconnections during El Nino, neutral, and La Nina. Here is an example between BOX and PHL CWAs in an El Nino winter for the PNA. The PHL CWA leans towards/favors +PNA for number of qualifying days with at least 25% of stations measuring snow. Meanwhile, BOX weakly leans towards/favors -PNA. The numbers on the maps are all absolute differences between percentages. Of course, the caveat is that there are some outliers in both situations and it's not consistent amongst all measurable snowfall days. In fact (and you can find this on the website) the most statistically significant teleconnection is a -EPO across both CWAs (most significant when selecting "all winters" and not just separating out ENSO): Here is another example but with QBO during El Nino just for shits and giggles. PHL actually leans towards +QBO for number of qualifying days with measurable snow at 25% of eligible stations (I'll have to look into the details of the data here, I wonder if there's some bias from big dogs that formed during +QBO/+ENSO seasons) and eastern BOX leans towards -QBO but western BOX leans towards +QBO. Again, very very important to note this is not gospel and there are outliers that prove snowstorms can happen in either phase of QBO. Either way, cool website and wanted to share. All of the details should be there on the site. From the site: "This is a descriptive historical phase comparison: each DJF winter is grouped by its mean index phase. Red favors positive phase, blue negative. The shading estimates the station-rate pattern between qualified stations."