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The more important part of the forecast is that model guidance has continued to show Erin growing in size, and the wind radii have been made larger in the new NHC forecast. This new forecast now brings tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast later this week. Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.

Might want to zoom and take a look at the numbers.

There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane still expected to recurve over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda over the next 3-4 days. The main highlight of the new forecast is that much of the track guidance, including the consensus aids, have shifted slightly west of the previous NHC prediction during the first 2-3 days. The new NHC forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids during the first 48 hours, and then closer to the TVCA aid beyond 48 hours. It should be noted that there is still some space for additional adjustments to the track forecast, particularly beyond 48 hours with the HCCA aid lying along the northwestern edge of the guidance envelope.

Totally agree looks like dry air and northerly shear taking its toll too. Erin does not look healthy at all on all satellite IR and water vapor.

49.0° with some clouds…felt cooler yesterday. MVY 42° this morn

The weekend definitely had more potential for heat a few days ago. Erin is mucking it up a bit…especially in SNE. It’ll be warm up here, but nothing to write home about. COC has definitely won out this month. But with the abundant sunshine it’s been a beaut.

50 for the low...good stuff!

Low of 62. Opening night of high school football on Friday looks absolutely perfect.

There is a significant change you will not reach 90 all August

Yeah, nice to see the Euro start showing a PRE since we really need it. But the placement of these features can be very fickle like IVTs in the winter. We can remember back in 2021 showing the PRE in SNJ and it would up in NYC. But at least there is now the potential for someone around the area to get some much needed rainfall even if later runs switch the location near the jet entrance region.

To add, the new 30 day QPF from the EPS is very dry for the mid-Atlantic and northeast. IF (if) correct, we will be in drought conditions again….

53/47 cool start. Boston with it's coldest anomaly of the month yesterday at -8.7. Maybe out do it today?

Down to 49F this am, and looks like rain on Wed looks to be CRV west with maybe .25 to the east. Crunch lawns here, need the rain!

No Nina’s are not a winter killer even south of New England

Erin is crawling right now. With its large circulation, upwelling is starting to become a real issue for it. Additionally, Erin is really helping to bring down SSTs east of the Bahamas. This should help keep anything down the road that traverses that region in check until SSTs can rebound somewhat in late August and early September.

Invest 99LAs of 06:00 UTC Aug 19, 2025: Location: 12.5°N 20.1°WMaximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/AMinimum Central Pressure: 1010 mbEnvironmental Pressure: N/ARadius of Circulation: N/ARadius of Maximum wind: 30 nm oi lads reckon this might nick the name Fernand first or would this more likely be gabs

Why TF did the lemon nick 99L off the orange?

This thread’s E MDR AOI (the current lemon, not the further west orange) is now Invest 99L:AL, 99, 2025081906, , BEST, 0, 125N, 201W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025,

My ideal would be snow and cold for one season - then the rest of the year with temps like today, plenty of sun and just enough rain to not drought.

Watching all the rain explode into nothing from the dry air after crossing the lake makes me sad, our farmers need it

Gfs is now offshore at 0z

Latest UKMET (0Z) still pretty weak and a little west of 12Z though still not far W of Bermuda: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.6N 64.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.08.2025 108 21.3N 65.7W 1010 28 0000UTC 24.08.2025 120 22.9N 67.2W 1011 30 1200UTC 24.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.2W 1011 35 0000UTC 25.08.2025 144 26.9N 68.9W 1011 35 1200UTC 25.08.2025 156 29.9N 68.4W 1012 35 0000UTC 26.08.2025 168 33.3N 67.2W 1011 31

Yes. The ops are just fantasy but the ensembles show a pattern that could be conducive. Everything is always low probability for here so there’s no need for folks to get riled up.

^It seems the Euro ensembles are good at those long range forecasted hurricane numbers. I remember in the 2nd half of last season they had 5x average, and we sure did have an active period.