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Dim sun here. Another mild morning.

Next batch is here, but it’s all rain despite some brightbanding aloft. No pings yet. 36.2°

Great thread from @griteater on the weakening early season Strat vortex and connections to a -NAO in December-ish. His two closest analogs are December 1981 and early January 1982 and December 2000. December-January 81/82 was a very cold and snowy period for our area, especially January. December 2000 was quite cold, but fairly dry without much snow.

It's better than Manhattan obviously. But, no where close to ideal. Western Brooklyn/Western Queens and Manhattan is the peak UHI zone. Since you're close to the park you at least have a good option to see better stickage. Overall though with a big well placed storm you will be fine. Problem is getting one lol

Think this is a little extreme in Cook. I could see the LOT AFD playing out over Lake and Porter counties in Indiana but overnight guidance seems to have swung the band further east.

But you’ll go to NYC

Spent another 4 hours clearing the yard yesterday, trees are about 20% still holding leaves. Maybe one or two more 'yard days' and I'll be done for the season.

Looks like a version of last January when the coldest departures went to our south also. But this time we have more warmth in the West. Plus the surface high will crest over the south while we get the flow off the still very warm Great Lakes.

Currently 38.8 degrees here after a 38.4 low.

i'm not clicking any links posted in this forum, that's for sure

I’ll believe it when I see it. Life time early season lake snow/snow event if it were to verify.

First accumulation of the season. Maybe a half inch? 30.5°

Fwiw, tons of leaves on trees still here

Models are shifting the vort north at the last minute (sound familar?) Not like we were going to get more than flurries anyways.

We’ll see if this can trigger a strong enough wave reflection to lead to more of a -WPO -EPO from late November into early December. Then the main question is will it be able to weaken the Pacific Jet enough. Last December we saw how the stronger -EPO didn’t really weaken the jet enough so we got a mid to late December +EPO reversal. Remember none of the models got this +EPO reversal later in December from early in December. So we’ll just have to monitor the Pacific Jet once we actually get into December. Plus we have seen warm ups every December since 2011 from the 17th to 25th that most of the long range models missed. Even during colder starts to the month.

Happy Birthday!

I'm surprised to see thunderstorm activity on radar in the area. I wasn't expecting anything until this evening. Yay! Something besides boring and beautiful lol

First off welcome to NYC! And second no it’s not like you are in Times Square lol.

The only storm you’re gonna find 18”+ around BOS and BTV both.

4 feet lol

Fresh dusting of white outside this morning.

Oooh interesting that it’s uniquely bad compared to the rest of the city—any reasons why? I’m only a block from prospect park though, so hoping on getting to see some snow stick there

Trying hard to believe in the process, but it’s been a biiiit of a circus to say the least at times. 2 wins in a row now though! We went from having no defense and a killer offense the past few years to now having a decent defense but no offense.

Oh and quite a snippet from the LOT AFD By the time the lake effect ends on Monday, total snow amounts will vary considerably across short distances. Where the snow bands are most intense, total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches are expected with a ceiling of 2 to 4 feet if snow bands end up stationary. This threat appears to be most pronounced over Cook county, but may extend to Lake County Illinois and Lake County Indiana, as well.

Potential for historic snows in the city! The mesolow looks to come ashore out here in Indiana (which keeps me in the game for a potential big dog) but it will be what dramatically shifts the main band into Chicago. Considering how deep the cold air is and how warm the lake is, expect at least 3” per hour rates. This is an extraordinary set up, so 6-8” per hour isn’t out of the question at times. I’ve only experienced 4” per hour snows once in my life and it was bonkers. It’s exciting but be ready to have your heart broken. This is Game 7 of the World Series, tied at 4-4 in extra innings. It could be glory or it could be nothing. The band and mesolow will ultimately do what they want but this is as good of a setup for Chicago as I’ve ever seen. I’m hoping the band shifts back east and holds together for a few more inches on Monday.