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Euro also showing this trend to a lesser extent. We’ll see.

35 / 32 cloudy with some showers as the front comes through. Last warm day for the next 7 - 10 days with highs upper 40s / low 50s. Colder period starting tomorrow and persisting into the week of the 26th. Beyond there overall below normal. Still chance to see if storm threats materialize in the period as cold looks in place for ingredient number one now all we need is the energy / track and storm to come together in the 1/24 - 1/30 period. 1/14 : Front / warm day 1/15 - 1/26 : Colder below to much below normal. Coldest period focused on 1/19-1/22 1/27 - Beyond : Overall below normal

visibility dropping under 1/4 mile under this 40 dbz stuff, v nice

U can see the significant shift in the vort at 6z compared to 0z on the GFS. It went neutral a lot quicker and got rid of the positive tilt quicker. Does this continue? Or go back the other way? We will see.

I think we are a bridge too far here in the foothills. We still have time but need significant shifts

06z euro was prob 1-2”…esp 495 NW

Back to winter cold tomorrow: WB 6Z 3K NAM

Fun event unloading tonight. Come on boys, someone setup a jeb walk livestream! I want to feel the blizzard too!

Don't forget about New Orleans.

At this point, small changes west or east with the shortwave are going to have major downstream implications

Like last year when the Florida panhandle had a better storm than we did

I shouldn’t be quick to dismiss Saturday inland. Might be C-1”.

At some point that will start happening again....we just don't know when, as Wolfie would say....

It would keep trending little by little each run until it was a 12-18” job eastern areas and 6-12 west

Hopefully the tide is turning. No lack of cold for sure.

Showers and light rain have developed across northern Maryland. Models not showing this area of rain.

Much like the November event, mostly graupel snow by me

6z Euro ticked up significantly but Is still a coastal hit, mostly. I think we can call this a trend without a doubt at this point

White out

In the 2010s this would be a lock to hit

Turn that frown upside down. 4 weeks of cold at least. Definitely opening up the Gulf which was closed in December. Perhaps even tracking 3 storms a week

IMO its really the SS starting to fire back up that is throwing the models into fits, as there are so many vorts coming at us, they are trying to figure out what (if any) interaction there may be between the 2 streams and as yall should know by now, it doesnt take much to make sumthin when you sit near the boundary. For that reason, I think, is why its really inside 72-96 till the picture starts to get less fuzzy. Thats why I've not written off this period like many others have. In the end, I may be wrong, but I'm just followin my guy on this one (and by following gut, that doesnt mean something will happen), but period should not be written off. 6z GFS is gettin notably closer for weekend. Might be sniffin cirrus back here while easters see some flakage.

I have no idea what he means lately.

wait 5 minutes