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My earlier IPA while watching some live airplane spotting out of Miami. Real nice beer from a great DC brewery. Review is on UnTappd.

Yup

Has a reverse March 2001 ever happened?

Congratulations! May your baby be perfectly healthy and wish your wife a healthy recovery. My son was just born this past Dec 5th, and we drove through the snowfall to get there… on untreated roads. Was fun if not a bit nerve wracking, but no major logistical issues.

Yeah, at this range all I want to see is the models consistently having blue over us. In less exciting news… Approaching .70” in the bucket, 39F.

Expected that best shot is south. Perhaps a couple of wind whipped snowshowers that may reignite Lionel Ritchie’s concussion concerns….sorry meant Jordan Love NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR: FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED DCVA IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH AT LEAST EPHEMERAL LOW-LEVEL F-GEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR. WHILE MODELED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE HIGHER COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH, THE REMAINING PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS WELL TIED TOGETHER/COHERENT. THAT SAID, RECENT HRRR, HRDPS, AND RAP RUNS HAVE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED STREETS OF ENHANCED QPF IN THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ABOUT 5 PM TO 1 AM. MUCH LIKE SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WHILE NEARBY LOCALES MAY PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR SO.

So what I'm hearing is we start the thread now, watch the storm trend away from us, and then restart the thread at HRRR range and have the reverse bust of the century. On a serious note what is there to even look for on the map when its so chaotic. I feel like I can examine simple setup but no idea on how to even approach what factors cause a storm like this to amplify.

Well I was gonna buy a snowblower, but I'm afraid if I do it will jinx us so I'll hold off on it for now lol

12z gfs was a fantasy run. Not going to happen.

If I can get a blizzard and a foot plus, who TF needs 2 feet? I know who…

Neat run, but hard to imagine it ends up anything like this. LP over the mid bay with sn++ DC to Annapolis then 3 hours later precip dies as it redevelops well offshore lol.

Sounds great! I’ve had a few from Icarus, but not that one.

Looks far more consolidated out west so far. Just need it to not hold energy back and we might be looking at another hit.

Got a bit squashed this run. This is prob the type of system that wont be that stable until we’re inside 100 hours. It’s an imperfect setup with a bunch of moving parts…why it’s still somewhat of a longshot to deliver big snows (not talking a 1-3/2-4 type deal)

12z surface was fantasy anyway

I can almost guarantee we jackpot, simply because my wife and I are on baby watch and that's how these things go. A blizzard baby would make for cool memories, even if it did create some logistical issues for us haha

In this case… 48 hrs or even less. Today’s model runs are a perfect butterfly effect case study of how tiny changes upstream can change everything for us

I mean, sensible weather went from 12-18” in SNE to 2-4”. That’s a pretty big difference, regardless of upper air

We take and we become besties again

Storm 1 is moving out fast so maybe 2 will have more time and space.

The fact that the euro runs at 2.5x of the GFS might help it detect things the GFS isn't seeing, but I would agree with the fact that we won't know much until 72 hours or less.

Cheers!

The 18z GFS will unlikely have the big storm on the 17th as the cold front is not ingesting a tropical system from the Pacific! Haha. Still, I think we see some light snows traversing some portions of the forum. edit: Although, there still is Pacific feed to the Southwest of the front.

Feels like NC is the same as SC now and all the systems go north to VA.

Looks a lot worse at the surface than 12z. I don’t think that’s really debatable