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The strengthening over the next 2 weeks from the current weak SPV has been shown for awhile. It’s the weakening afterward that I’ve been focusing on. Will todays run be similar? Stay tuned!

49 and periods of drizzle. An Ineedsnow kind of day. Looks like a mini coastal front near the Braintree split SSW to about Norton. Otherside of that is some heavier sheet rain stuff.

Shit you not you can see a resemblance too.

I’ve had this in my phone since 2016

Right? Funniest shit since some of the toaster bath images, and other gifs and doctored photos.

Genuinely curious as it always seems like the NAM 3k has the most orthographic precip out of all models always (including the other high res ones). Is it actually more accurate or is it overdoing it?

The children!

Exactly In fact, any snow potential we have, I'm setting my expectations at a Trace.

If Jamaica hadn’t been in the way this would’ve easily been top 3 too

I don’t remember the major location change from in-town to the more elevated airport, but I know it was pre 1940s. 95-96 is when the airport sites converted to ASOS/AWOS. But yeah, most of that time frame is the same location.

The fact you don’t feel good about this winter is a good thing…then it won’t take much to impress you. Setting the bar low…you can always adjust up if need be.

Hey y'all.. it's gonna rain!!

Same obs site? Low of 27 this morning, 12th sub-32 this month plus yesterday's 32. Coolest low is 25 on the 10th, and mildest minimum is 50 on the 20th, timing is kinda backwards.

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England.

For planning purposes, heaviest rains move in after sunset; looks like the morning rush will be a washout and the steady to heavy rain will move NE out of the area between late Th. Morning and mid afternoon.

@wokeupthisam Here’s a question I always wondered… The Christmas trees are getting cut dormant after Thanksgiving. Can you cut dormant scions from a tree (winter pruning) and bark graft to a cut stump in the spring when the bark starts slipping? Or are the trees functionally dead after cutting and sitting all winter? I’m not familiar enough with firs to know if the sap tries to flow despite being chopped a few months prior. Being able to reuse a mature root system would have the new grafts sizing up quickly.

I wonder when in November (if we do) the pattern really begins to flip. I mean the extended GFS/Euro continue blowing the 576/582 500 heights well north into the country through mid-November. I think I made a post or two in the ENSO thread but (and this is not an official outlook or forecast) but I don't feel good about this winter at all. In fact, I would not be shocked if this ends up one of the warmer winters on record for the CONUS. Really curious to see how November plays out but we need something big/major (probably in the stratosphere first) to mix things up.

I am looking forward to fall back...model runs start coming out "earlier."

Blowing snow already .... Nice

The first high elevations snows(light) are expected in the Smokies overnight. I wonder you will see some, John?

I occasionally check it out. I wish i could have it set as a tv "channel" so i can just go to it and relive it lol

Also probably tons of flood damage inside near the coast where any surge reached. In my experience in Sandy that’s exactly what happened. From the outside the house looked relatively okay, inside totally devastated.