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GFS does look like it wants to spin something up in the Gulf around hour 170....if the trough goes negative after that could be game on.

Gfs about to try and do something at 168 but might develop too far east this run.

The best potential for a larger storm is probably that mid-month period. Beyond mid-month, however, the pattern may become much more active...maybe with SWFE's given we may be battling the SE ridge...which may not be a bad thing given we'll be into peak climo. Not totally sold on the SE ridge becoming as stout as advertised though which would work into our favor. We may not get into deep cold, but we'll have deep cold available nearby so if we can tug a storm track a bit south/east we can easily pull into it

Yeah, hopefully we can get what the ICON is showing! Perfectly timed phasing and trough axis that results in us being just cold enough to snow.

This has messy "models are clueless" written all over it. Can't buy any solution right now!

At 156, the GFS misses the phases. Not unexpected from a model which has a progressive bias. Let's see where ensembles go with that. That said there is still a lot of energy behind the initial front which is dragging its feet.

Yes! We need the moisture....WB 12Z RDPS.

Also has little consistency. It’s different from run to run.

The 6z AIFS Euro does that crazy deal where the slp cuts off over Idaho and heads to San Fran.. I think that is part of the feedback that we have seen all winter in that part of the world. If that doesn't occur(which I doubt it does), programmers across modeling need to take a serious look at what is going on in the western US w/ storm prediction - it is rough. With many millions of people living downstream of that...it needs to get fixed. There is almost assuredly some shared programming as evidenced by that pinched of low tracking westward over the US.

SE MA cleaned up unbelievably in that 15 year stretch....they were easily the most AN for snowfall anywhere in New England during that timeframe. They are a decent spot for big storms already, but those years just went crazy bonkers with the frequency of biggies.

I just counted the # of days in Jans 1975-89 by MJO phase: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as was suspected:# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 39 (8%)2: 67 (14%)3: 67 (14%)4: 57 (12%)5: 46 (10%)6: 51 (11%)7: 63 (14%)8: 75 (16%)Compare to this that I posted yesterday:# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 17 (only 4%)2: 26 (only 6%)3: 67 (14%)4: 51 (11%)5: 57 (12%)6: 101 (a whopping 22%)7: 104 (a whopping 22%)8: 42 (9%)So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharplyJan 1975-898-1-2: 39%6-7: 25%Jan 2011-258-1-2: 18%6-7: 44%So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25! A quite possible explanation is the PDO cycle in conjunction with the strong W Pac warm pool. So, if the mean PDO would go positive, maybe Jan MJO dist. will revert back to 1975-89. Then again, the strong warm pool may be mainly due to CC?? If so, would it be easily reversible with a PDO change? A lot of this would seemingly be hard to answer. @donsutherland1@bluewave@40/70 Benchmark@snowman19

12z GFS not interested in dropping that energy through the Rocky's and phasing like the ICON does.

Like I said last night though…the midnight high can net you 2 days of 50° if the fropa timing is right. Let’s butcher those negative anomalies with some bush league tactics.

Unfortunate waste of potential in both the and departments. Could have done something significant with a little more antecedent cold air to pull in on the back side and different timing/better lapse rates in the warm sector.

Need to get past 1/15 for cold to return....we can sneak in marginal snow before that, but my best guess is the 1/15-1/20 period is one that needs to work out in order to turn the month into a potential AN snowfall month. Don't want to count on the final 10 days to drop double digits.

Ready2rumble Spring vibes today

So far w/ the 12z suite is rolling: 1. The ICON hass a coastal system and could trend much bigger if real... 2. The GFS and RGEM both have pretty decent snow shower activity Sunday.

FWIW, the 0z CMC/GDPS did phase some of the southern stream like the 12z ICON. Not perfectly clean, but enough.

After the walk down memory lane..... Well looky at Z Icon. Staring the nooners off w/ a bang.

The ICON would be a nice snowstorm for most of our area if it played out that way. But the 12z ICON is significantly different than the 6z GFS and 0z ECM plus almost all individual ensemble members. By 0z Tue, the initial shortwave energy to eventually carve out the longwave trof in the MS valley is in WYOMING on the ICON. But it is noticeably further east through the DAKOTAS on the GFS and ECM. Related to this feature is the phasing of the upper level low in the Southwest US. The further west positioning of the northern stream shortwave on the ICON allows most of the southern stream energy to phase into the developing longwave trof, which sets the stage for a much better trof orientation and 500mb height field. I think the ICON is wrong with this feature, but I'll be watching subsequent runs closely.

Not too many posters have probably been paying attention to this storm but there has been a huge NW/stronger trend with this over the last few days. It doesn't mean much to most here but to see systems becoming stronger as they get closer in time instead of weaker like we've seen the last 10 years is different.

Source region is rebuilt in western Canada by MLK weekend, offering a new cold air supply that should leak into the northeast. I am seeing more signals for active southern stream as well. Think end Jan to early Feb looks pretty decent setup wise at this early juncture as well.

I'm sorry you're feeling pretty defeated. But I have to disagree with you. Keeping it real is one thing, but you've teetered over to the point of self-loathing. I'm not trying to read you at all, but once you get to this point, everything is a negative. Is the pattern amazing, no, but is there there some real good guidance to the pattern becoming much better, yes. So your garbage pattern theory might be good for the next week but after that not so much. My biggest hope is we do get a really good storm that will brighten everyone up including you and give everybody what they're looking for.

Not much on the ground here and it looks like it’ll completely disappear by tomorrow.

Looking at the numbers, map looks pretty accurate. For the period since December 15, Omaha had it warmest mean high temps (by more than 2F!). With Des Moines in 4th place by the same metric: Moline officially in 13th place by this metric, but 4 of those years predate the start date of IEM's analysis. So 9th warmest since 1893.