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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the fast flow will be a large issue this year.
  3. WxWatcher007
    That's where my head is at too. I was once ready to totally write off winter, but I think AN precip while we struggle with the battle zone for temps in southern and maybe central NE is going to be the theme of the season. And that can work out very well, but I'm guessing we need less of that fast flow crap and more active STJ. Problem with the stalled front is that way more often than not they just carry whatever develops OTS. Speaking my language. Hybrid would work just fine.
  4. midatlanticweather
    The stuff in PA does look like it could target the area again. Not sure it will be severe.
  5. weatherwiz
    It's been a while since we had one and the last few attempts didn't work out. I started the dates around mid-October since early October probably is too short notice (and selfishly I'll be away the first weekend of October and presenting at TriState Weather Conference the following week). I am hoping with some advanced lead time we can get a good gathering. I know November/December will also be difficult with holidays and I didn't put Halloween as an option as those with kids will probably be out getting candy.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Storm woke me up, sounded like the end of the world out there. Lots of debris hitting my roof. Saw a few big trees down in DC on 14th street on the way to work.
  7. csnavywx
    Day in and day out. Having a really hard time with holding onto elevated convection in setups like this. Decent instability gradient for them to ride down and shear improves this afternoon, so there's at least some chance this stuff makes it.
  8. NorthHillsWx
    96 at 11:30…. On pace for our hottest day of the year
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Much more moisture available today, along with the warmer climate.
  10. Birds~69
    DP 74F is the real problem...
  11. weatherwiz
    I've read a bit on that event. That was some serious stuff in terms of global impact, particularly to the fishing industry and ocean life.
  12. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  13. WxUSAF
    12z mesos want to kill it
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say that the 1877 event was pretty similar to this and that winter sucked.
  15. yoda
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No wholesale changes to the forecast this morning. Monitoring convection upstream over Ohio (again) as that is on pace to affect the region with a damaging/severe wind threat later this afternoon into this evening.
  16. weatherwiz
    Well said. And like Scott was saying, you do need to be careful with just applying linear logic of just taking previous strong EL Nino events and "energizing them". We very well may see a winter which does not match well at all with any of the previous stronger events. Reason for this is our database on those is so small and they're so infrequent that there are scenarios that just have not occurred. I mean look at what's happened to how our understanding of ENSO has changed even in the last 20 years and this is because as the datasets grow we introduce more possibilities and outcomes.
  17. GaWx
    Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34: 2026 6 1.07 2026 7 1.33 2026 8 1.67 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified: How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record: 2026 +1.67 2015 +1.58 1997 +1.85 1987 +1.27 1982 +0.93 1972 +1.47 1965 +1.57 1957 +1.36 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt
  18. bluewave
    Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why it would be displaced southward...agree on northward.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry for OT...honestly forgot which thread I was in.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Region 4 has kind of dried up for now, but I don't think that wil last.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad. I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.
  23. Cyclone-68
    It looks like someone smashed someones Lego’s?
  24. weatherwiz
    The size of the +28C to +29C water temperatures within the Tropical Pacific is ridiculous. Even +20C off Mexico and into the Baja.
  25. EC609
    90 at 10AM
  26. weatherwiz
    Adding on to my reply to Scott in your winter thread about the ridiculous graphic from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense. He is favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south. I don't think that is totally true but I do know alot of generic stuff out there on EL Nino mentions this. I think there seems to be confusion out there on the different branches of the jet stream. The cooler/wetter patterns which plague the southern states during EL Nino I think is related a a stronger jet (which we all know) but its a stronger sub-tropical jet stream which can have the tendency to be displaced a bit further NORTH and its the cooler/more active track which plays a bigger role in the temperature anomalies. But its the stronger jet which is more critical versus the displacement. The polar jet also tends to be displaced further north, hence the lack of Arctic cold outbreaks penetrating south.
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