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Are those by days of snow individually or do you compress multiple days to one storm. If you want I can send you how I did Harrisburg as well as raw data going back to 1890 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That really is a pretty good clustering showing up on today's run.

Doesn’t have the Euro correct? .

hoping this is the real deal and not a "premature evaluation."

looks like the storm that shall not be named.....2/6/2010. this is not quite as massive though.

I was just looking up the 1933 data from all of the NH sites and there’s a lot of -40s in Coos, but 2 stood out…-48° in Milan and -52° in Dixville Notch. Unfortunately they were stamped with “not standard thermometer” on the forms.

If you compare h5 to gfs the sw is moving east and is already east of gfs. But its the Nam at 84 so ain’t like it matters.

I gotta fly 2/1 to FL to care for my MIL-was originally planned the first week of March but alas stuff happens. She can’t be alone and my wife’s siblings are/were there last week, this week, and next so our time is coming except since my wife and me are the only ones with more time. Let’s get a big dog before 2/1! After that our winter is over.

Yea agreed, this is why I asked. Just looks like the OPs .

I can't find anything that confirms it but based on what the NBM is showing I'd argue they are not.

Seems crazy to try and extrapolate the NAM at range, but if we are being honest verbatim, the ull is hugging the Southern Cali coastline crawling along on a trajectory to the baja. It also looks uber wound up. How you can tell that would be a great run, Im not quite sure.

Looks like the CME has arrived at G4 levels. I’ll step outside once it gets dark. Feeling pretty blessed to have caught vivid light shows in my backyard multiple times this solar cycle.

Ok, but the NBM is their bible, so if it's showing 6" of snow, the WPC map ought to reflect that IMO.

Tarrytown, NY from early this afternoon:

Fully expecting not to be in jackpot on this one and end up with the typical pings, but could we expect some potential for thunder snow?

Maybe, but there was a big jump in snowfall from 12z to 15z run, and 18z looks exactly the same.

Exactly. Anyone who claims to be a scientist of any kind can't possibly believe in jinxes - how one ties one's shoes, wears a cap or posts on an internet weather forum has no bearing on the outcome of any event. It's just dumb.

Something HAS to give. Something. This could be a great winter - its in front of us - but only if we catch one or 2 out of this.

Alot depends on the ull out over the baja. Some models move it out quickly in 1 piece ans phase it, others are slower and eject it in waves.

1933 and 1943 would’ve been pretty cold up there. Franklin COOP had -40° in the 1943 one. That probably means somewhere around -30° here on the hill considering CON had their all time record low of -37°. I need to find the closest station relevant to your climo for those years.

According to Google AI it does, lol, but none of the links provided showed that, but I may have missed them as the NOAA/NBM model sites are fairly obtuse to navigate. https://www.google.com/search?q=are+AI+models+incorporated+into+the+national+blend+of+models+nbm%3F&sca_esv=19fb1bea8894757c&hl=en&biw=1536&bih=791&aic=0&sxsrf=ANbL-n5dmwLPcf4aXzuAo62-IxWijdkJ8Q%3A1768855885220&ei=TZluaY2UDauw5NoP_M6SKQ&ved=2ahUKEwj7187kvZiSAxUMKVkFHbE0GoIQ0NsOegQIAxAB&uact=5&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&udm=50&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIZ4fQLFxpd-X3cjBjwn-bveyDdFq6p_1Ihh_Ql-GGwzDrx965YmoBHPdZqjpk_wLcr87EOVDrNef7abUsdy7lRfcH9HduY3ypbiqLxbsL21UWg8kiZoouB9nEp7CN9iwIQTZNErSg2mYdqm_lNuaH6dd_mwj6XsekAu4ZQqdcS9xvsucig&aep=10&ntc=1&mstk=AUtExfCZMemFB51m4S6HuNpB6ZNqrL2MZ9iLPahXcV3f9nftZMz8VEzzsfF-0k2B-q1ClJtpFKAIRs17eCrRjNILMTlVVcVkZxKEKkSoMhND4k9NAAnpyuUD4LpYj0FYBfilE1SzOLm9790fcu7lDVN0EXj4GqfsCsZ4gWiF4lInPSzlkYrVG91NioCgDaQMtGVkmT5DgMkqKzjM6gf9wyLR3ITA6bVj4HTLhWcoHFLcgc6NtdsOzuOvgDfx9jwzswqit5Wm-vtMcmvpe-pBmNjwRnibMNwdPrK5au2jiAlDTHAsX3NbE7ip1N5HIhaT231AxVpgYIQTbV-MGiOCa057HD6O_lwQNMtlvaTR_F7pPSnmk2tr-X0oanP7KbG2ehhxQu1mcgzfpC1lvmY_s41mlOhsLGoCnA6bNQ&csuir=1&mtid=5ZluabyWG7ul5NoP5OeLiQM

Updated NBM

One trend past 24 hrs i do like, the strong 1052 arctic hp isnt showing nearly that strength and is ~1044mb highest i could find across guidance at 12z. Not surprising that it probably won't be as strong as depicted 6 days out.

Snow likely low of 12. Pretty common I’d say as much as unicorns and wives who encourage you to eat more red meat and have boys trips to Vegas.

IIRC, the Euro is often too late for the NBM. Still, a general 6" - 10" regionwide is solid.