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yup, Im at MMU and I'm thinking 6-10 is a good call right now

Wouldn’t matter if you measured in S Wey

Anyone else getting annoyed with Apple Weather creating insane forecasts and people believing them? I'm currently in Rockville and it's saying 20-25" on Sunday which is so far beyond any real projections. Is this just my pet peeve right now?

Don’t look now but the Euro about to do it again next weekend lol. Will give you another chance to believe it when it does it again

Yep, seen it before too where if 750-800mb are wrecked by the initial primary lows hanging on too long it can take a while to flip back to snow. But the coastal storm evolution is the complex part of this that we have to wait and see on. It’s looking good for at least 4-6 hours or so of heavy snow before any warm mid level air arrives.

If a weenie slaps across your face while sleeping and you don’t wake up.. did it slap across your face?

Can't wait for that NAM run that captures the surface low, nukes the CCB and gives everyone 2-3' kuchera wise.

The run-to-run changes out west (even in the short) on all models is wild, and really highlights the complexity of the storm. Oddly enough, the surface depictions are a lot more consistent.

If I measure in May did it even snow all winter?

Thanks! Didn't check this thread. My bad lol.

6z RDPS seems reasonable. The difference b/t 10:1 and Kuchera likely outlines the places that could see the most sleet.

Ask the chipmunk it squashed

Those amounts look pretty reasonable and I would agree with a 6-8" floor for the NYC Metro. In my mind that would include the Rt. 78 and 80 corridor through NJ.

If a weenie fell on your face and nobody saw it, did it really happen?

Probably will be snowing near DCA just after 7pm Saturday on 12z NAM

Would probably save a lot of time and energy if I just read the NWS forecast discussions and only start looking at the models if they are talking about a winter storm 3 days out. I just can't get over the Euro showing 15 inches of snow here Tuesday and then by Wednesday it was all freezing rain.

OK, for some reason, I thought you were kind of disagreeing with me. Anyways, I don’t wanna be a dead horse… I hope we can at least get 12 to 18 regionwide.

1/28-1/29 2022...

From my 4 years in Cville... it can hang on a bit more with the CAD. Honestly, I think you'll do fairly similar to a lot of NOVA on this storm, though that take might age badly. Don't think you really sleet that much more, think you turn to sleet sooner but also start a bit sooner. Really significant FRZA seems increasingly unlikely to me. Feel like it's snow -> sleet for most of us.

If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall?

Ok

Dry is bad this time of year whether it’s warm or cold. Warm and dry here usually consists of temperatures around 35-40 and 30MPH winds. Might as well be cold enough to look like winter when the warm option is still cold. lol

I really miss the days of Harvey Leonard and Bruce Schwoegler. Both good mets and loved snow. I don’t know the name of anyone on 4, 5, 7 except for Wankum and I concur with the opinion about him above