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Looking at KDIX CC band, you can see the rain/snow line crashing its way south/east

Things turned white in a hurry in Winston-Salem

I really thought a few days ago it was going to sit longer and come out delayed after the 27th. Still could, I suppose. But I am quite OK with it being ejected as depicted on the ens means and getting an ECS this weekend.

Picked up 0.15" of rain this morning. When that ended temp rose to 37. Been slowly dropping since. Currently 34.5. Just need some damn precip lol.

Yep. Typical SE trend will commence. And no I’m not kidding or being sarcastic with that statement.

Euro AI (AIFS) has the best verification of areal 0.25+” precip coverage at D3-5 right now, second best at D2 and still top 5 inside 24 hrs. It’s not the magnitude you want to pay attention to with AI. It’s the location of the precip distribution and the handling of the 5H mean trough/ridge pattern. It’s very powerful and definitely worthy of looking at for synoptically driven pattern. Convection is okay and still does a relatively good job at location of potential precip maxima, but it cannot handle the magnitude at all. Struggled mightily in that area, but useful nonetheless!

Very light snow in Danville .

Talk about region wide. Has a Wes-southwest to east-northeast flow to it.

How far inland are you? No accumulation in the southern tip of Newport this am. Virtually impossible with any southerly wind component down here.

Snowing in NW Greensboro

Fwiw, I think it’s good to talk about it a lot because the more we all recognize and point out where the AIs were successful, then we can start to pick up patterns….maybe they are good in some types of setups and crappier in others relative to the OP guidance.

The new EPS mean might be the highest I have ever seen...

The ice amounts from the 12z Euro are pretty staggering. I want NONE of that - nada, zip, zero. Here are the 12z deterministic runs for next weekend. Things are going to change with this almost assuredly. Keep in mind though, Arkansas has this storm within five days now. Also, the frames below are only snapshots. The GEM frame is the second wave. Most models had a couple of waves.

Latest HRRR runs look pretty decent

Yes but we just don’t use it in the shorter term since we have great short term models. If we can rely on AI as a solid tool for medium range, then that has a lot of value.

Ground is quickly whitening in Winston-Salem

Had to be warm when it tries to develop a glacier in your front yard…. lol

The big thing is getting that STJ energy to eject E 12z ai made a huge progression change in doing that. The prior 6z run buried it under the ridge If it really does head east this is the best chance for a MECS in a decade. .

JFC the Euro AI Ensemble has a 3 day snow mean for Jan 25-27 is like 6+" I think, have to wait for slow ass wxbell to confirm

How many epic patterns does it take to get an average winter around here?

Conditions were great, the upgrades in snowmaking they made in the summer are noticeable. About damn time they invest in Wisp - now they just need to install faster lifts at the main chairs.

If I were the boss I'd say ok...snap a few pictures of you and the family at the Key West monument with today's newspaper in the shot. I honestly would do that if someone fed me a line like that. That is like giving CPA's time off during tax season. Should have restrictions. I know you were making a joke but wouldn't you think they would have some rules for time off in the dead of Winter?

The ad placement on their new thing is truly one of the most frustrating things I've ever had to endure. I really can't tell if it's on purpose to get you to pay or what because I refuse to believe that they'll put money into developing a new product that's clearly meant for mobile devices at least in part and then not verify something that simple.

Round 1 shoveling done. Light snow coming down in this little weenie band over my backyard.

Hopefully the radar begins to fill in soon. We'll need every minute of it. Radar looks good to our south