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For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.

This is what I mean...seasonal guidance isn't that different, regardless, but like I said, the EURO is probably most realistic.

I would imagine we don't have those long stretches of snow on the ground even if we hit normal snowfall. Seems likely if we have good storms the snow wont stick around long. I had snow on the ground for most of last winter.

Should someone start a thread about next week? A sub 965 low pressure is nothing to joke about anytime of the year.

wouldn't mind an extended shorts and hoodie season right through Thanksgiving..maybe beyond?

Sitting outside having lunch. It’s gorgeous.

not only is it the most unfavorable, this is the most extreme example of it we've ever seen

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

I take that comment as good luck. I've been humbled to many times by mother nature to ever say something like that lol

I'd ask if you're willing to bet your reputation on it....but

Sure was. Styles blowing up Barkley on the one was epic

Yeah he’s regressed which is surprising. Good first year coming off a national championship with Michigan. He might not have been asked to do as much and just played. I wonder if given how bad the D was the last two years he’s still playing like he has to do more than he should. That was the biggest issue. Players out of position because others not doing their job. Like he has to learn to trust his skills and others again. He has skill. Needs to get right mentally

Nice thundery early morning yielded 1.45" here.

Just what we do not need here.

Richard Marx winter hopefully

Keep an eye on next week. Wouldn't be surprised to see more locally heavy rainfall totals before the week is over.

Lowest min from NJWXNET was 40. Very refreshing. Overnight low here was 45.

not a coin toss with a nino this strong and east based. easy breezy beautiful winter forecast

.97" this morning riding the southern edge of the rain shield.

At this point, I look at a consensus average. But interestingly, none of the seasonal models are that different with temps (early season being warmest) and heavy precip along the SE and east coasts regardless of how they got there, east or central based.

More and more I think the rate of change can be as important or moreso than the index value itself. Definitely true with the QBO. Let's look at this WSJ chart for El Nino. Slope is greater than the other events of record. Calculus is back like the monster in the TV! I expect something new this El Nino.. er uh, well more crazy that's already in progress.

Good Idea: Not caring when someone weenies your posts Bad Idea: Lashing out at people when you get a weenie on your post.

Hit 52F this morning with a 49 dew point. It was lovely. Still is. Currently at 72F with a 56 dew.