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Say wut?

Will I ever turn off the pellet stove?

You can't tell by personal observations, of say snow, that things are progressing in a direction?

Anyone who received sleet/graupel today and consider it an event should contact ChescoWx immediately so he can update and upload his 1300+ spreadsheets across 18 servers worldwide. Unfortunately I was hung out to dry and did not have a event.... 48F Probably last freeze tonight, forecast low 29F

Looks like some garden variety storms tomorrow evening across much of S. MI, IL, IN and OH.

34 degrees this morning on a forecast of 41. I covered my tomatoes and will again tonight.

pea sized hail/ice falling..39°. seems more like sleet now

Radiational cooling is very efficient here with clear skies, low dews, no wind, and cold HP overhead. Nothing resembling UHI here. 29-30 seems doable. Should I cover my Hydrangeas or can they survive this and still bloom?

We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year.

Research link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution. As per that research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

85% of our months are above average these days. The question is how we are relative to that 85% number

Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

a lot more preliminary or confirmed tornado reports in central Illinois. The number of tornadoes on this list has gone up from 20 to 93

I guess that means I'm not one of "those that live in the woods". (Pic from late May 2024, quince blossoms, apple blossoms in background).

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young.

We squeaked above 70 here, thought we’d stay in 60s.

Beautiful day here today. High of 72 with dew point of 40. Very dry and getting dryer.

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

Dewpoint currently at 18 here, with temp already falling to 51 F.

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

I always wonder what birds think after they hit a window. They probably think where did that come from?

Bateman had like 10 catches all year? Lamar is a running threat if they have to cover WR's.. big time variable vs other teams needs. Also injury threat if he has to hold the ball makes it ++variable.

Yeah but we lost many games in the trenches last year...WR is not our biggest need, imo No trenches no time to throw to said WR, lol

5” rain bullseye for me on 12z euro.

I think it wouldn't hurt to draft a good WR honestly. Especially with Likely gone. Build the team around Lamar. Defenses vary too much year-to-year.