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0 for 1 on convective attempts here. Wish we upstate NY.

My one caution flag I have is that these things tend to follow the warm advection wing, and that's where all the convection is percolating into the CT valley. I still expect the apex to turn more south than southeast.

I think csnavy was hoping for a moderate Nino earlier this year before it was obvious that there wasn’t going to be? Don’t think snowstorm is being inferred here. Nobody can say whether there will be one or not

My dad is camping up there and had to abandon his campsite in advance of the storm. Fortunately his weather radio worked out in the wilderness.

100%. They also mention the orientation of the high is such that the worst heat favors the mid Atlantic in today’s AFD whereas some previous runs had it centered further SW. Multiple days of 100+ degree heat seem inevitable tho and it will certainly be a dangerous heat wave, but explicitly putting all time record highs in the forecast over the weekend definitely led to more scrutiny over the forecast. I had never seen 106 forecast for my area or 3 days straight of at least 105 as it had until yesterday

Dendy is now installed

Eww

3.71”

There's the warning

I don't understand how you have reached the conclusion that the mid Atlantic will not muster so much as a moderate event....Jesus, what is it with inability of the majority of this forum to accept any dialectical nuance. It's either ALL or NOTHING. The reality is that the coastal plane has a decent shot of a major event this year and history dictates that.

Interesting low level humidity increase in the mountains. Some dewpoints in the mid 70s already. Hancock mesonet site has a heat index of 99° already.

Well we're off to the races here in death valley, both cef and bdl reached 90 so day 1 is in the books

Nice core on that Belchertown cell. 60dbz to 20K on BOX

92/53 HI 89

91 1st day of heatwave for me

The lake is keeping temps subdued. Only in the 60's along the shore. 80's inland. Natural A/C working well.

Meanwhile Amherst area getting crushed with rain.stationary cell. At least a few inches

HRRR has it getting into the HV and western CT before falling apart....

ahhhh...I was just thinking about this earlier and if it was MLCAPE or MUCAPE to follow...couldn't remember

Will be interesting to see how this progresses because the stronger instability will continue building east towards the CT River along with the ridge building too

I watch trends on the MUCAPE or 850 dews. It's been riding the 2000 J/kg or +16C isodrosotherm. That isn't forecast to make a concerted push into SNE.

Kinda weird that it’s gonna be hotter there than in Vegas this week, for at least a couple days. Was breezy af all weekend but now winding down and barely hitting the low 90s. Sunday and yesterday felt more like Denver than Vegas. Pretty great hiking weather.

I do think CAMs are struggling with this. It's a well developed MCS, with MCV probably in there now and guidance is almost certainly decaying it too quickly. But I think the HRRR is on the right track, showing the southwestern end being the focus. That's where all the deeper instability is. SNE is all 0-3 CAPE.

Another thing to watch: the warmest low ever recorded at the airport is 77, on 7/23/2010 and 7/16/1980. Seems attainable, possibly Friday morning.

Looks like its starting to turn a bit