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Pretty much. His map is how I think this one will play out. A classic N and W special. Us city folks gotta wait a little longer. Hopefully the 6th or 10th comes thru.

It’s done that on a few cycles, It could be real as well.

Not much different on the 18z gfs

18z GFS Dual lows…

Gfs is further south

Hahahaha

man fuck the GFS

yep, you're in the game. some of those totals include sunday night / monday. Jack on the RGEM is like 8-10" in the Taconics. Been a while since they've had a nice early season dump.

We look but don’t take serious

This is concerning considering the Euro’s result

Yeah, we noticed that looking at the MSLP member plots and looking at the ptype output. It's skewed high and some gaudier members in there too. I think what the AIFS and ECWMF deterministic are showing are pretty good agreement with the op more on the drier side in the northwest edge of the precip field. EC has had a drier bias in that area over the past few years and beefs up a bit as move closer. Unless there's a purely synoptic based reasoning for that sharper delineation on the northwest edge of a cyclone, there will likely be a small correction. I think we are closing in on a more reputable solution.

I did that today too

Pixie dust light snow for a while has dusted the ground. Temp 28. Thinking 4-5" is a good call for here. Should be a bit of compaction in the early morning as temps rise above freezing, but still a solid winter wonderland expected.

18z GFS looks a hair more south?????

Frederick is overdue for a win in the snow department. I’m pretty sure Bethesda has gotten more snow since I moved here.

Sun angle is not an issue in early December.

Dust in the wind for 3 hrs has whitened everything. Streets, rooftops, and lake ice.

While y'all are discussing an early season slop to cold rain situation, I happened across this today while setting up the Christmas inflatables. Early spring?

We could work with that.

A ton of convection across Central Illinois the past couple of hours, with a lot of lightning and TSSN. There have been several associated pockets of subsidence out and about across the area, one of which has been hanging on around here for a while now. Sitting 5.6" here at home thus far, and sniffing an under-performer.

A pocket of yellow just popped over CR, which should help get me to 10". Large flakes are dumping.

I hear you, they're just not very useful at this time frame.

NAM and ICON get play because they come out first.

The NAM always amps, especially the 18z. Not saying it’s going to snow in the city proper or LI, but North Jersey, especially Sussex, is in the game in my opinion. The 500 map Forky posted days ago seemed to argue this could shred and exit stage right, not cut. But time will tell.