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Is the GFS leaving that baja low behind again?

The high pressure is pressing in more through 90 on the GFS. Should be a good run

sweating the bullets awaiting 12z GFS

The 12z GFS is digging the trough into the Southwest a little longer than the 6z Euro did but out to 12z Saturday they look very similar at H5.

Getting sold on at least a very solid front-end thump. I had some concerns with the slowing trend in the southern stream. 6Z GFS finally flipping away from holding the cutoff back makes me think that failure mode is sliding off the table. It was an outlier ofc, but if even the outlier is moving away from that scenario, it makes it less of a threat. The TPV has trended slow enough that the eastern lobe of that cAk high pressure will be solidly in place to prevent the incipient low from moving west of the mountains. So the question is now how clean of a coastal transfer we get and how far north that occurs. A phase between the cutoff and the trailing N/S wave would cause the WCB/warm nose to advance further north and perhaps cut into totals here. A partial phase or a simple kick probably still doesn't. But something to look out for on the latter part of the storm.

And What are you replacing your picture frames with now that all of your degrees are gone?

Was nice while it lasted GFS

Well as soon as I posted that, the next two frames came and it essentially caught up with the 06, and is a little big larger with the snow shield on the north side.

No. Please stop

It still does

Something to be extremely careful with and I've seen a bit of this on X is you have to be extremely careful just using QPF trends as a means of seeking out north/south trends. Ultimately, that is a practice that shouldn't be used in the first place but that holds especially true in this setup. there are many other factors at play with this which will impact QPF...not just total QPF but northward extent of QPF. You can increase the dynamics and forcing aloft WITHOUT having a bump north in the sfc low which can result in both increasing the QPF and blossoming QPF north. There is room for a quite a bit of PVA into the region with favorable upper-level dynamics and we may continue to see increasing QPF into the region which is independent of storm track

2005 2016

AI GFS sticking to its idea of no phase and a more southerly track.

Now it’s a true 2016 redux with an event the days before

GFS dragging its heels out west. Less interaction with the NS.

The GFS looks slower with the precip at 12z as well.

yeah, I'm still a little sad we've pushed this back a day. I guess it seems to offer us a higher-end outcome, but would rather just get this done sooner rather than later. Guess it ups the odds of OPM giving us a day on Monday.

Don't start this mess, gfs lol

Im in Senoia, about 3nm southeast of the NOAA radar facility at KFFC, 20 nm almost due south of KATL.

so far seems slower which is what we want....

It is definitely holding back a little bit.

That’s why I keep to myself

Eric Webb said this is not trending north. I feel better now.

It’s also worse these days than it used to be, because everyone sees 19-23” on their Apple Weather app and the question is no longer “will it snow” but “two feet of snow?”

I’ve been on the side of a I-85 and north snowstorm this whole time. I am cautiously optimistic given the strength of HP that ZR will be south and east of here. I believe triangles best outcome here is a heavy 6-8” front end followed by prolonged sleet. That would make everyone here happy. ICON, CMC are the worst case, 2002-like but colder. Just can wrap my head around being in lower 20s with ZR I’d have to think the IP area is larger than modeled.