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  2. Santa Claus
    small line is cranking
  3. frostfern
    When the line over Lake Michigan catches up to the stuff out ahead, there should be a big general wind bag event. My prediction.
  4. Picard
    Heavy rain, wind, and constant flashes here. Oddly though, not a lot of thunder.
  5. Jackstraw
    Stacked bow's from SWMI down through Central IN. Kinks in all of them.
  6. frostfern
    Cass County has a tornado warning now. Somewhat of an embedded HP supercell in the line.
  7. winterwx21
    I was watching the lightning from that cell in the northwest sky. I see a few little downpours to the west in Somerset County -- hoping to get one here in a little while.
  8. frostfern
    Something tightening up in Cass County MI now. Far SW Michigan still not out of the woods.
  9. Torch Tiger
    wild
  10. Jackstraw
    I'm warned for some QLCS notches in that fat belly pushing E. Helluva a light show and muggy as shit. Walking outside, chase is on lol
  11. vortex95
    As noted in previous posts, odd for temps in the 90s and DPs 70 It acted more like a cool season line of gusty heavy showers. 00z analyzed NAM 1000-500 thk for DCA was 577, so that usually means 50k CB tops easy and lots of LTG. Peak mid-level lapse rates on the 00z IAD sounding were 7.0 C/km between 700-500 and CAPE at mid-levels was "fat." That should have lead to solid charge separation in the supercooled water level for lots of LTG. K-index 36, so not dry aloft. Sfc T-Td spreads around 25 so not too dry at low levels. Yet things were very outflow-ish. Storm cores should have been "meatier" for the lack of a better term! The thing that stands out in the sounding is the lack of solid deep layer shear, so that likely precluded stronger coherent cells or a more solid/thicker SQLN.
  12. Picard
    Didn't expect the pop ups. It also looks like the storm up north is intensifying a bit and developing back to the south. I might get clipped by it.
  13. SchaumburgStormer
    Cell is still spinning like a top as it nears south bend. Will see if it tightens back up
  14. IWXwx
    Wow! Easy chase lol. Nice grab
  15. Cyg

    June 2026

    Cyg replied to NEG NAO's topic in New York City Metro

    Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lots of lightning with this little storm near 78. Not bad for a pop up storm.
  16. high risk
    It's a fair question, especially given that there is more shear in that profile than I was expecting to see. The warm layer you mentioned might indeed have been a factor. I'd also note that the surface dew point doesn't seem to be representative of the moisture in the low levels, so a mixed layer parcel, while still having some CAPE, would not be able to generate as strong of an updraft.
  17. KeenerWx
    Looking north at roughly the time of this radar scan. It’s from a video I took on my phone lol. Quick “chase” today as I just had to hop to an area of fields just north of my house
  18. Avdave
    Got to 103* on my PWS here in our new location 4 miles North of RDU. Drought monitor isn't pretty for the I 85/40 corridor in the piedmont though
  19. high risk
    None of these CAMs are AI-based. This event, like Saturday's, was mostly a burst of wind followed by a mostly narrow band of reflectivity. I'm guessing that this type of event is tough for a 3 km model to properly resolve.
  20. CT Valley Snowman
    Another complex of storms to the SW. The rich get richer.
  21. Ji started following Capital Weather independent of the Post
  22. Ji
    Are you allowed to write about globar warning again?
  23. Jackstraw
    There was a CC drop right over Calumet City a few min ago on that tor warned storm
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    93 today.
  25. Upstate Tiger
    So we have officially entered El Niño phase. Most agree it will be strong and possibly super El Niño. The strongest El Niño on record was the super El Niño of 1877/1878. It actually started in late 1876 and was fully established in spring 1877. The winter of 1877/1878 was known as the year without winter, especially in the Midwest and eastern US. Farmers actually planted in February. This El Niño is starting a little later and no two are the same but at this point, an above average temp winter would be a good bet.
  26. SnowenOutThere
    From my 3000 course Atmosphere and Weather the only thing that fully stands out is the slight rightward nudge between 500mb and 300mb. Seems odd that’d prevent a mature thunderhead considering the abundant cape still present. Maybe the other piece is the hodograph which only has unidirectional shear up to sounding point 2? Will page some of our smarter friends to help out @high risk @CAPE @MillvilleWx
  27. CT Valley Snowman
    Friends of mine moved from Palmer, MA to Canton, IL about 30 miles SW of Peoria last year. They've been learning the whole Midwest severe thing firsthand. i was updating them today as sirens were going off.
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