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From earlier today, this stream from Jeff P. shows he and his friend surveying the damage in Santa Cruz, Jamaica and possibly also other nearby areas:

Some things never change!

They will be in the snow soon

Same here. Hope we didn’t jinx the rain.

It's been a while since my last barn update. Still have some trim work to finish up, and the doors have to be made (planning on a naturally stained wood in a chevron pattern), but the painters should be arriving sometime next week. Electrical will be the last problem to tackle, but I think that'll have to wait for spring.

Well, I did it. No, I didn’t start the snow blower, but I did clean the gutters.

General appearance appears to improving with center getting its circular appearance back and dry air pushed out. Nice blowup on western flank.

I'll give you some advance notice, it will happen next year on Nov 1, start preparing you whiny post now.

Hey Roger, I’ve noticed what seemed like a (slight?) partial correlation between high sunspot months (say 130+) and low ACE with possibly a couple of weeks of lag. One hypothesis is that the increased solar energy heats up the upper atmosphere more than the lower, which if true could lower instability in the tropics.

And? Instead of land they encountered other unfavorable conditions weakening them. Where it finished on the list is impressive, but every single storm ever on the planet weakened because of something, land, shear, etc. It was just an odd statement. Carry on.

Max 52.9° Beautfiul sunny day.

Yes because kids can’t be outside in the dark….

That trip was a fisherman's stew with fresh seafood from Turners Seafood Market. My uncle had drafts of Stella, some new England IPA, and Guinness (full nitrous setup!). My brother and I brought Oban and Thomas H. Handy Sazerac Rye Others brought appetizers, wine, beer, etc. it was Wednesday November 7, 2012. We were up that week to help out other family in Connecticut recovery from Sandy and on a whim my aunt and uncle had everyone over that was up helping that week. Everyone, all 16 of us, soon abandoned any pretense of traveling the few hours back and we went hard till midnight we all slept on the floor with blankets, sleeping bags, pillows, 3 dogs, 2 cats, a roaring fire, and storm shaking the house hard. One of those amazing nights that edge in ones memory since it seemed preordained with how it came together. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

La Nina effects on the Winter Northern Hemisphere pattern actually puts a High pressure over the North Pacific High, which is just off the west coast of the US. A lot of people think its main effect the PNA, which is actually only the case for extreme west-based events. Last Winter despite +PNA we did see a +NPH pattern. It was Weak-Nina like. I think we could be looking at a similar pattern here, at least to start this Winter, going into November and early December. Beyond early December, I wonder if the now neutral ENSO subsurface will make the La Nina less impactful. If the SOI stays strong through next month (it's been positive now 15 months in a row), we could see more a of a east-based La Nina like composite for the Winter, which is usually cold in the Upper Midwest and sometimes Great Lakes. La Nina December's also have a tendency to be cool in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast - that's if the SOI stays moderately positive through next month and December.

The issue still remains why that occurred, but this does make sense otherwise.

'50s would be nice.

Nah - most of those went below Cat 5 before being affected by land - e.g. the other 4 besides Melissa over the last two years. What I'm wondering about is how they knew the 1932 was Cat 5 for so long. We didn't have satellite or even radar back then; nor did we have C130's to do fly-throughs. Can't do post-hoc damage analysis on the water. So how did they know?

Here’s what a very knowledgeable non-met recently posted about my observation regarding the historic January in the SE US occurring despite a very strong SPV What lucked out for us is that even with the stronger SPV last winter, it was rooted to the Hudson Bay TPV so cold air was nearby last winter most of the time, when it’s locked up and wound up on the other side is when it’s a issue,

93.3 WMMR Pierre Robert, 70, has died. I don't remember MMR without him....

Right, your forecast wouldn't sell many copies. I'd be super happy with last year with more snow.

Nope...not hype enough for them

Hopefully the loss of life is really low or better yet, zero.

I guess you don't write for the Farmers Almanac.

HRRR is preferred

Incredible. What impact, if any, does this trend have on your thoughts for the upcoming winter?