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Apparently the CPC agrees, considering they are now using RONI as the official measure of ENSO intensity. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

I'm skeptical with amount of sunshine peeking thru and current temps for much in the way of snow----limited window for precip changeover. I have jumped to 44 here near Winston Salem.

Wouldn't it be a bit unusual to see a 970s low on the DE coast in a SWFE?

I had a nice "mild" overnight, but it seems like instead of the rapid after sunrise warm up that I get many mornings, we're going to slow roll to our high for today.

This event UNEQUIVOCALLY lived up to the thread title for once!

Never forget.

Yup. Sounds like the ONI will continue being maintained but the RONI will be the go to now.

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see

Well, that would be the second-largest event of the winter here. What's the snow depth out there? Heading out there this weekend to do some sledding at Blackwater.

Warms the heart. Positive vibes simmering

Thaw today? With highs in 20’s

JB is on storm watch for our PD3.

Got a whopping 1.2" here

This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.

It’s gon snow!

I hope this system misses us. Our infrastructure cannot handle another beat down like last night's.

Being pretty sure or confident on any long term weather pattern is an oxymoron. Knowing how complex these things are, statements like these serve no purpose and are not productive.

Absolutely correct! I'm often as much as 5 or so degrees different than MDT.

NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this

Euro is definitely the most meh of models. It also hasn't exactly inspired confidence in the day 3-4 range. Lets see if the meso's start ticking more aggressive with the OE stuff as we get closer. The INVT trough is a crapshoot

Did anyone anywhere get anything from this POS system?

My station is consistent with all of them around me. I believe it's just about 100% accurate. When I made my post, the Airpark down the road was 31. MDT has been consistently running lower than me for a couple of months now. Edit: Every station to my east is in the low to mid 30s. Every station between me and MDT is in the 28-31 range. Interesting. Still say my station is accurate.

Maybe a few more times.

Interesting timing difference.. GFS/NAM vs EURO .. EURO slowly bleeds the cold in Saturday afternoon.. NAM/GFS are much more of a "whoosh" with NAM showing an 18 degree in one hour temp drop around daybreak here.. ICON/Canadian more in line with the EURO, so it's American guidance vs foreign.

Squalls are very hit and miss. I’m not a fan of broad 2”+ amounts when there isn’t a broad precip shield. Sure, someone may get that, but good luck pinpointing where squalls will focus