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2008/2009 was referenced as a possible analog for this year. However I do mot recall the PNA state for that season.

For some reason I am enthused seeing the euro. I adopted a new stance to wait until inside 84 hours vice 384hrs for enthusiasm ops.

No wind, powdery snow. Easy pessy! 6.75"

Just about an inch here, total.

6.25” total here. It was nice not to get any sleet or rain for once.

First 20s of the season here 29 for the low

Best part about ice accretion is when the sun rises the following morning

That smaller part is a representative subset of the wider Atlantic part of the Arctic which is also at record lows for the date. You can see record daily lows extending over to Svalbard on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Due to geography and season, the September records have been more Pacific focused like in September 2012. So the record lows on the Atlantic side caused the entire Arctic to have a record low Jaxa extent on December 2nd. The extent is the lowest on record for the date at -425K below the previous record set in 2016. Winter records are usually more on the Atlantic side over the years since it’s easier to have open water extending into the Barents and Kara seas due to Atlantification of the Arctic. There is a much narrower opening to the Arctic near Alaska so it’s easier for the area north of Alaska to freeze over by this time of year. Wider Arctic low matches regional lows across the Arctic.

Finally made it to 32 this morning for the first time this season at my station.

TWC mentioned a few records can fall tomorrow morning w/r/t record lows. Bridgeport is one location. 17 is the current record there. Something to watch.

Another inch fell last night, so a total of about 3" here in Lowell. What remains on the ground is only about 2", but that first inch is probably half water. I know Ray think's it's going to disappear, and the top inch of fluff certainly will, but i's not going to in areas to the north and west of me. We just both got screwed being less than 10 miles from the goods and you can sense it in the posts. I remember making a post years ago about drawing a map of New England of where a snow "pack" usually builds. I don't believe Lowell nor Methuen is in that area, but you go just west side of Nashua (10 miles to my NW) and I believe you're in the southeast edge of it. It kinds goes where snowmobile trails exist. Maybe I've gotten a little soft/less worrysome about these shitty events because I spend about 1/2 the time at my cabin, and this time of year, it's all about pack building. We might get an inland cutter that drops 2" of rain, but a good majority of that ends up building the pack. Sure, sometimes there's bare ground on Christmas, but that might be 10% of the time. Go 10 miles to my N up there and you're in elevated land and it's probably closer to 1% of the time. That post about storm anxiety made me laugh though. I never really get true anxiety, but a lot of people do including my wife, holy fu@#, I just get angry, lol. They may have been referring to the "milk and eggs" people, which I'm certain exist, but I think anyone posting here has gone through met anxiety. I could name names, but I think we all know who we are, lol. I certainly did/do, and that probably has a lot to do why I built my cabin 100 miles north of here. My friends and fam are like "We're so glad you built this place for us to come and enjoy" and I just chuckle inside to myself. I packed my shit and was ready to leave last night around 8 to get some runs in, but I have a job to do around here, and I hope the snow does melt a little because it actually involves a drone and the top inch melting away.

Still showing MM for the snow measurement at MDT in the overnight climate summary. They must be really stumped on this one.

6z Euro. Count me in! Maybe we can juice it up a touch more? I need enough snow to cover my back yard leaves that I was too effin lazy to rake.

5 inches at the groomer barn for 8 inch total pack, going to go out on sleds Sunday to start packing water holes and cutting blow downs hopefully. Another 8 inches and we can dig the groomer out probably. Lakes will skim this weekend when the wind calms and then if it stays like that for a few days we'll have 4-5 inches of ice before the next storm. Fingers crossed!

Very low dews very low snow angle and you ain't hitting 40 next 10 days with a refresher. Enjoy your cover it ain't going anywhere

High of 35 for me today and 34 tomorrow Don't think an inch and a half of ice is going to go down the drain. Hope you're right.

Below normal temps, and cold nearby, with active storm track…this is a decent set up going forward. We’ll have chances.

Just in time for the 12/10-12/11 snowstorm threat. Lets reel it in

Stake up to 8” after this last storm. Not bad

It has…but you know we can’t base the current set up on past performance either. Maybe we strike out again…but there will be shots. All we can ask for.

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA. So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. Yesterday's GEFS forecast: Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast: Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad. All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

I would be shocked if we hit mid month without a solid warned event for much of the region....strongly doubt we make it that far.

I also see people posting to the effect that what we have on the ground "isn't going anywhere"....well, it's going to be near 40 today and tomorrow here on the cp, so last time I checked, snow goes down the drain at that temp.

The last few seasons have felt like eternity.

Yup. But look what we just went through with yesterdays storm …this is still an eternity away.