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  2. kdxken
    Is this the one where runaway iceberg got smoked?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.
  4. michsnowfreak
    Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.
  5. vortex95
    I bet there is another meso model out there that has strengths of the NAM. Just we have been so used to the NAM, we have not being forced otherwise to look! So now we will be looking. @CoastalWx misses having access to the IBM GRAF! LOL.
  6. michsnowfreak
    I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.
  7. csnavywx
    That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is my favored scenario attm.
  9. ORH_wxman
    If we get some sustained -AO periods, I think we'll have some good chances for big events....I'm def favoring a warm winter, but we know El Ninos can also be really schizophrenic....you could have obscene warmth for 3-4 weeks and then get pummeled for 2-3 weeks too (this happened in the '82-'83 winter). I think the best hope for big snow this winter will be to get into a super juiced Nino pattern while we have a favorable AO....and then you end up cleaning up for a 3 week period.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is disputing above normal temps...at least in the NE.
  12. Windspeed
    A long-tracking hurricane? Maybe. Perhaps a few long-tracking TCs regardless. One that remains powerful enough to stack ACE? There in lies the problem, or lack of a problem, depending on perspective. Yes, Joaquin occurred during an El Niño season. But you should read up on that TC's meteorological history. Joaquin did not form in the MDR, nor was it even associated with an AEW. That particular TC formed out of a retrograding mid-to-upper cutoff interacting with a remnant surface trough. Despite its stall and eventual high-end intensity, such a system doesn't happen with frequency even during active seasons. My previous post is merely stating, sure, climatology might get us a hurricane, or even a few of them this season. I just doubt we'll see any CV majors cross the MDR and rack up significant ACE with walls of shear. Something might develop, may even flirt with hurricane status, or become a hurricane, but it will probably struggle to reach or maintain major status very long, if at all, to pump up those numbers. Mind you, these comments should also not be confused with significant landfalls or impacts. That could still occur. Yada, yada, yada, it only takes one. At any rate, we're quickly approaching the heart of the season. We shall see.
  13. csnavywx
    Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol. Remember, slightly warmer winter temps in some places are BETTER for snowfall, not worse.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Currently 8th lowest on NSIDC area. (GaWx has been posting AMSR2 area which is good too, but for consistency purposes, I track NSIDC area since methodology is unchanged since 1979.) Chances of top 5 now are getting slimmer by the day. Too much extended cold on the ESS/Beaufort side this season. You usually want a strong start there so that you are eating away at the CAB in late July and early August rather than wasting those few precious final weeks of higher insolation trying to melt out remnant ice in the Chukchi/ESS/Beaufort.
  16. A-L-E-K
    feels like yesterday when the twin cities was crushing it
  17. donsutherland1
    I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes.
  18. OrdIowPitMsp
    0.05” overnight which brings my August total up to 0.20”
  19. Keith Central PA
    Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.
  20. Today
  21. CheeselandSkies
    If anything from the ATL side can survive the Godzilla Nino...
  22. dendrite
  23. JenkinsJinkies
    https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1601209068040844&id=100044552974374
  24. Great Snow 1717
    You need your own YouTube or Twitch Channel !!!
  25. Brian5671
    was down there last week on vacation-was very nice but no waves since the Atlantic was quiet
  26. CT Valley Snowman
    2 years ago today, August 18, 2024, a day Oxford CT and surrounding areas will never forget. I remember looking at the radar in amazement but with the realization that this was going to be a flooding disaster in the hardest hit areas.
  27. dendrite
    Sure. We always laughed at the 3k orographics and knew it was overdoing it in the mtns…it was more of a signal rather than taking the QPF verbatim. The 12k always seemed more zonked in coastals to me even near go-time. The running joke here in the winter is we’re always waiting for that run the day before a SNE biggie that jackpots here to northern VT. But the 3k was really good with CAD and (imo) ptype in those overrunning situations. Convection is hit or miss, but I never saw it as any worse than the other hires models. I just feel like it had its purpose and times where it was useful. We still seem reluctant to dive into full 4dvar like ecmwf. I haven’t talked to Alicia B. in years so I should pick her brain more, but maybe you can explain to me while we’re still messing with 3.5dvar or other hybrids. I remember a study many years ago that showed the gfs error scores were similar to the ec when using their data assimilation. So it seems like there’s value there.
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