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I think Will made a comment the other day saying only NAM had this 2 part deal. At any rate, I am very happy. Stressful last 24-48 hours of model watching , wringing of hands

RAP and HRRR in their very long range show several more inches tomorrow for most of the forum. Time to watch how it all plays out.

No mercy for south Texas. This upper air pattern is taking NO prisoners. 10 mph north winds continue to bring in freezing cold dewpoints. It's 38/12. Tomorrow night it will plummet to 17 degrees and kill absolutely ALL of our plants. We will have to start from scratch, just like after the asteroid hit Earth 65 million years ago.

Reggie never wavered, just qpf pulses:

Temperatures could make a big difference with regards to accumulation. I'm at 29F now, I see the city at 35-36 which is not good.

Came downstairs for my third coffee, and we now have light/moderate snow. It's interesting how our forecast went from nothing on Wednesday to up to one inch yesterday morning to 1-3 yesterday afternoon to now 2-4.

i just looked back at 12z runs looks like GFS/EC had it but it was mostly confined to W/NW CT. band ended up SE of what those modeled it

For Scooter https://imgur.com/a/1UZG3as#FF3dKiZ

It’s how this particular flavor of -PDO since the 2018-2019 rapid warming east of Japan and south of the Aleutians is manifesting. Sure this wasn’t the strongest La Niña that we have ever seen. This new flavor of -PDO defined more by the warmth east of Japan and eastward than the cold off the West Coast resulted in the historic snows by a very wide margin in Juneau, Alaska with the very strong Pacific Jet undercutting the -WPO and helping to reinforce the -PNA. The Northern stream has been so dominant that the East Coast storm track has been forced to the south and east away from the 40/70 benchmark which has been a common occurrence since 2018-2019. So all the kickers coming in from the West in the fast flow have lead to poor wavelength spacing. So the snowy benchmark track hasn’t able to get going. The record warmth and dry conditions from the West into the Plains south of the Pacific Jet has also been very impressive. Probably related to the configuration of marine heatwaves across the Pacific and possibly the Atlantic and Indian Oceans also. Enhanced Northern Stream and weakened Southern Stream since December 1st Snowiest Decembers Time Series Summary for Juneau Area, AK (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 82.0 0 2 1964 54.7 0 3 1975 51.0 0 4 1991 49.3 0 5 1979 48.4 0 But the seasonal forecast models correctly forecast the strength snd still had the Nino trough forecast into the East. Due to the record WPAC warm pool for such a strong El Nino, the Canadian +PNA ridge was much stronger and displaced into the East. So the forcing had a further west lean into the Pacific than we normally get during El Niño. So there were Nino-like and Niña-like elements which blended together that winter.

I thought the reggie had its best run of them all at 6z...

Euro didn’t even show precip over us so I’m not sure that’s as much the issue as some bs dry air.

I love how the Euro completely pulled the threat it was advertising at 150hrs at 12z and 144hrs at 18z on last night's 0z run (it's not there on 6z either.) So I feel even more confident than yesterday in saying the Euro fooked us again. Lol

yea with temps and ptype issues possible i think im done here. 0.6" from the first round, 7:00AM. Everythings white again, plows going by looks nice. seems like more but thats it.

I was up early for basketball, but decided not to slide down 84, that thing is a trainwreck without snow on it....haven't measured, but no grass is showing, roads are covered.

Canada oh, Canada RGEM/GEM consistenly had a solid hit run after run, pretty much since the rgem came into range and before that on the GEM. 00Z did waver slightly last night 00z run and ticked SE, then came back NW at 6Z.

No sun today, keep this 1-2 inches before whatever comes later. That batch down in SE PA looks nice, lets swing that right up here too, as long as it doesn't screw up tomorrow

Two inches down here and snowing hard. Nice to see the ground covered again

You still think it’ll be paste? Preferable over powder

Snow covered landscape on my camera’s, we’re vibing…you?

AI with the crossover? GFS and Euro broken ankles?

The Euro was never so gung ho. It's right when it says no, and rarely right these days when it says yes.

12z could be the backing off or leveling out. But it could keep trending. Feels like it’ll keep trending but I’ve been down that road before.

People of Hanover are about as threatened by you threatening to riot as Lou Brown was by Roger Dorn…

fixed…

Preparing for the riot