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Pretty much. His map is how I think this one will play out. A classic N and W special. Us city folks gotta wait a little longer. Hopefully the 6th or 10th comes thru.
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First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
dryslot replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
It’s done that on a few cycles, It could be real as well. -
First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Not much different on the 18z gfs -
First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
Baroclinic Zone replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
18z GFS Dual lows… -
Hahahaha
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man fuck the GFS
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First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
radarman replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
yep, you're in the game. some of those totals include sunday night / monday. Jack on the RGEM is like 8-10" in the Taconics. Been a while since they've had a nice early season dump. -
First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
We look but don’t take serious -
First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
Chrisrotary12 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
This is concerning considering the Euro’s result -
Yeah, we noticed that looking at the MSLP member plots and looking at the ptype output. It's skewed high and some gaudier members in there too. I think what the AIFS and ECWMF deterministic are showing are pretty good agreement with the op more on the drier side in the northwest edge of the precip field. EC has had a drier bias in that area over the past few years and beefs up a bit as move closer. Unless there's a purely synoptic based reasoning for that sharper delineation on the northwest edge of a cyclone, there will likely be a small correction. I think we are closing in on a more reputable solution.
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First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
Chrisrotary12 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I did that today too -
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Pixie dust light snow for a while has dusted the ground. Temp 28. Thinking 4-5" is a good call for here. Should be a bit of compaction in the early morning as temps rise above freezing, but still a solid winter wonderland expected. -
18z GFS looks a hair more south?????
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Frederick is overdue for a win in the snow department. I’m pretty sure Bethesda has gotten more snow since I moved here.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Sun angle is not an issue in early December. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
RogueWaves replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Dust in the wind for 3 hrs has whitened everything. Streets, rooftops, and lake ice. -
E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
While y'all are discussing an early season slop to cold rain situation, I happened across this today while setting up the Christmas inflatables. Early spring? -
First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
powderfreak replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Chicago Storm replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
A ton of convection across Central Illinois the past couple of hours, with a lot of lightning and TSSN. There have been several associated pockets of subsidence out and about across the area, one of which has been hanging on around here for a while now. Sitting 5.6" here at home thus far, and sniffing an under-performer. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
A pocket of yellow just popped over CR, which should help get me to 10". Large flakes are dumping. -
First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
UnitedWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I hear you, they're just not very useful at this time frame. -
First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season
ORH_wxman replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
NAM and ICON get play because they come out first. -
The NAM always amps, especially the 18z. Not saying it’s going to snow in the city proper or LI, but North Jersey, especially Sussex, is in the game in my opinion. The 500 map Forky posted days ago seemed to argue this could shred and exit stage right, not cut. But time will tell.
