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You gonna rock this year Chris.

He’s just trying to be funny. Come on, man, we all know that you enjoy pushing mildness in winter when you can back it up well, and that there are more that do the same on the opposite end sometimes without good evidence.

WeatherBell CFS maps are also a little bit gimmicky. TT shows a much different outcome.

looks like storm arrived 1915z

Spaceweatherlive.com they have a forum too.

Congrats Atlanta?

Can someone remind me of the key websites to monitor and what I am looking for again?

Pretty colors of the PV warming. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I glanced at this quickly and thought you said movie thread. I was excited until I realized it was Novie.

The 1968-69 winter has been brought up a lot recently. We got this beast that winter.

One specific location getting more snow in one specific season is a fluke. If you pull back and look over a 10/20/30 year period it is not snowing more to the south. One storm and one year is a fluke. An anomaly of short term randomness within the longer scale actual patterns. Same way 2010 was an anomaly for us, not some indication we get more snow than places in upstate NY that got less snow than Baltimore that one season.

Sorry. The intensity of today's snow wasn't meant to be part of my post. Just more envisioning the tenure of the season being that a heavy band sets up on 93 to my east while I rot in the subby zone. #Negativity

COP30 is on track to become yet another farce in the process to address climate change. It's agenda contains no items on mitigation. It contains no discussion of a phase-out of fossil fuels. At the same time, it punts the discussion of the Paris climate goal and progress toward that goal to COP31. It is yet another ratification of a status quo that is the primary driver of climate change.

CME is hitting but its magnetic field is positive for now. We want strongly negative for the best show.

twice as cold as last January.... maybe 2014 level?

Leafageddon update . Heavy winds and rain Oaks laugh .

That’s my take also. Using one cherry picked location (where a single fluke storm hit) from one season to say “its snowing more to the south” is flawed methodology. If you pull back and use even a 10 year period or longer then it becomes apparent it is not in fact snowing more to our south.

Yep I was wrong. The sheath was positive though which doesn't mean anything until we get into the flux rope which we've seen can instantly flip negative (or stay positive)

Daily snows. Dark November afternoons.

Great stuff from Allan Huffman. Today's 12z op ECMWF and EPS mean both show the 10mb U wind turning negative, meaning a change to an easterly wind direction over the polar regions and an #SSWE with 41 of 50 EPS members (82%) showing this reversal with 11/25 the day with the most negative members. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, can weaken the tropospheric polar vortex, allowing for increased high latitude blocking (-AO) and the enhanced risk for arctic air discharge into the mid-latitudes (North America, Europe, East Asia). A late November SSWE is relatively rare, and COULD help favor a cold start to meteorological winter(December). The last November SSWE was in 1968. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Lol…Guy is Jacked!

^-5° for Jan would be legit cold

We don't know exactly what drives an advisory--- and OKX and PHI may say it wasn't warranted for areal coverage etc. Who knows... My goal for the post was that the flurry situation was well documented as first for the season, AND, that the Blend of Models and most, if not all other modeling gust tools were inferior to the ECMWF gust tool. This is twice in succession that I've noticed the ECMWF has excelled one 40kt or greater gusts, even overcoming NAM and GFS limited R# (eddy) transfer for the 11/11 event. If all other models show 40KT plus gusts inclusive of the SPC HREF, better issue the advisory. If most don't...hesitate. Power outages increased for a time in NJ but not equivalent to the 31st when the trees were more fully leaved the gust criteria was exceeded even in the interior.

Incredible how reliable that December snowfall statistic is in the park.

Haven’t even begun to think about it yet. But I do appreciate the vapid airhead commentary as always