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Keep in mind that phase 3 has on average been the coldest phase during the 20 La Niña Februaries since 1975. Note that the upcoming snowstorm threat of 2/22-23 is during when in or very near phase 3 is projected.

What a convoluted mess

Yes, this year sure has bucked the typical norther trends. last weeks "event" came slightly north and we went from nothing to fringed. Seasonal tendency does not show up on tellies or factor into algorithms, so while the last 24 hrs hasn't been trends we want to see, as Mag suggested, you gotta look at 500's first before figuring out how the lower levels are gonna look. That said, there is a lot of sorting to do. Was really hoping the earlier phase was going to work out, but Friday's deal is screwin the snow pooch and not giving time/spacing to dive in, keeping the flow more progressive.

If it makes you feel better it's not lake effect. Just a spring like frontal passage. The next line looks fun in a summer way lol Cloudy, humid, foggy, mild here

Its following the GEFS MJO. Its in phase 6 there. Should pick up on phase 7 2nd week of March.

That's looking like the Euro AI precip distribution wise except displaced a tad north, also get's that 6 inch line way back into VA. I'd love to see the members for this.

SOI has been lagging the last few years 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.

More name title changes from Dave than inches of snow from this.

Fog should slowly diminish later this morning. We should see some light rain across especially for spots north of the PA Turnpike this afternoon. Rain amounts look light with most spots less than 0.15". Today’s temperatures will be in the low 40's just about average for the date. Rain chances to ramp up again tomorrow night and especially Friday with more significant rain expected. Snow chances look to increase by Sunday but way too early to nail down specifics.

Fog should slowly diminish later this morning. We should see some light rain across especially for spots north of the PA Turnpike this afternoon. Rain amounts look light with most spots less than 0.15". Today’s temperatures will be in the low 40's just about average for the date. Rain chances to ramp up again tomorrow night and especially Friday with more significant rain expected. Snow chances look to increase by Sunday but way too early to nail down specifics.

Still no signs of pattern change in March on long range ensemble models

Like I said last week, the dip may have just been rushed...we are seeing some trending towards that.

6Z SV AI Weathernext2: 8” DC

Yea, I mentioned folks have up on that reversal too quickly...maybe it won't technically get there, but it will be close.

84 hr. NAM is even more fun to look at - 12Z should be fun too

where's my projected 35" over the next 7 days????

Yes, the "fast flow" explanation is a bit too reductive IMHO.

06z euro improvement seems tied to that douchy feature over New Brunswick. Let's see that injection continue to withdrawitserlf to the NE.

The best thing I can say this morning is this threat is still 4 days away. Anything can happen in 4 days. Yesterday morning I said don't plan tailgate parties until Saturday. That applies again today. One big question to me has always been. Will the main action be tucked into the coast or too far offshore?? Yesterday, the Euro couldn't find the storm because it was half way to Bermuda before it really cranked. Things are a little better this morning but the GEFS is way out there. The benchmark for a big hit west of 95 is usually an east longitudinal alignment with Norfolk. South or even southwest is a different ballgame. Eastern folks can do somewhat better a little offshore, but this is too much for most. (Unless it changes) Always trying to be positive, I'm happy that my 7 model blend this morning is 2.1 inches.

There has been about three hours of sun in the past five days.

Yeah, quite a bit closer than 0Z... with GFS going the opposite direction. There will probably be more run that tries to pull everybody in

Well whatever is causing these systems to be so progressive, It's irritating...They need to wind up sooner. Turn the corner.

Yes, exactly.

Irony being @MJO812has been citing the decaying block as the reason we are going to get a big storm all week