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We call it flattening when they do that. Guessing it lets them cool off. We usually go through 100 peanuts a day and they are not eating much right now. I saw some chickens panting which is not a common sight.

ONI of 1.0 is noteworthy this early. It’s on par with 15-16 and ahead of 97-98, 82-83 and 72-73. Even the RONI of 0.5 is impressive at this stage, most El Niños don’t develop until much later.

MRX re-introduced pops for today. Torrential rain with a storm that is just now winding down. About to go check the rain gauge.

Storms blew up east of I-81 yesterday late afternoon/evening and caused quite a bit of damage in various locations as I posted about last night. 31,000 people are still without power this morning.

Records: Highs: EWR: 105 (1949) NYC: 102 (1949) LGA: 100 (1949) JFK: 101 (2010) New Brnswck: 100 (1966) Lows: EWR: 58 (1945) NYC: 55 (1986) LGA: 57 (1940) JFK: 59 (2021) New Brnswck: 47 (1986) Historical: 1776: Thomas Jefferson paid for his first thermometer and signed the Declaration of Independence. According to his weather memorandum book, at 2 PM it was cloudy and 76 degrees. (David Ludlum) (Ref. WxDoctor) 1816: In Savannah, Georgia the temperature dropped into the 40's on July 4th. (p. 33 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) Chauncey Jerome of Plymouth, Conn. saw several men pitching quoits in the middle of the day with thick overcoats on, and the sun shining bright at the time. (Scientific American, "The Year without a Summer" p. 48) 1825 - A hurricane struck Long Island NY leveling trees and causing damage to ships. The early season hurricane, which originated around Cuba, caused major damage along the Atlantic coast from Charleston SC to New York City. Many were lost at sea. (David Ludlum) 1825: A severe storm of tropical origin swept up the Atlantic Coast during the first week of June 1825 with reports of significant damage from Florida to New York City. Shipping logs told of a disturbance at Santo Domingo on May 28th and Cuba on June 1st. Gales were reported at St. Augustine, Florida on the 2nd. The Norfolk and Portsmouth Herald reported "undiminished violence" from the gale force winds for 27 hours, ending on June 4th. The effect of the storm reached well inland. Washington had cold, heavy rain all day on the 4th with high winds laying the crops in the vicinity. The wind also tore up trees by the roots in front of the State House in Philadelphia. This storm impacted the New Jersey Coast and the Long Island area as well with high winds and a two-foot storm surge. A Columbian frigate was driven ashore as were many smaller boats. The largest loss of life occurred along the Long Island shore when a schooner capsized. The entire crew of seven was lost. 1860 - Iowa's Commanche Tornado , with wind speeds estimated in excess of 300 mph, was unquestionably one of the worst experienced by early settlers, with nearly a million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1874: Tornadoes hit the Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC area, causing minor damage, but a major tornado hit Lewistown, PA, killing eight people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1876: Centennial Maximum temperature 95° in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1876: Severe thunderstorms hit the Midwest and a dam failed at Rock Dale, IA. The flood destroyed a railroad bridge and swept through the town. 42 people were killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1877: A tornado of estimated F4 intensity touched down just west of Mt. Carmel, Illinois and moved east-northeast, devastating the town. 20 businesses and 100 homes were damaged or destroyed. At least 16 people and as many as 30 were killed, with 100 others injured. 1891: Sixteen horses were killed by hail, and many more had to be put to death due to injuries from a hailstorm at Rapid City, SD. (The Weather Channel) 1911: The northeastern U.S. experienced sweltering 100-degree heat. The temperature soared to 105 degrees at Vernon, VT and North Bridgton, ME, and to 106 degrees at Nashua, NH, to establish all-time records for those three states. North Bridgton, ME also had 105 °F on July 10, 2011. Afternoon highs of 104 at Boston, MA, 104 at Albany, NY, and 103 at Portland, ME, were all-time records for those three cities. Boston, MA recorded its highest temperature of 104 °F. (all time) (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) (The Weather Channel) 1919: Hottest 4th of July was 100° at Washington Weather Bureau Office. (Ref. Washington Weather Records) 1932: Washington, KS was struck by a huge F4 tornado. 5 people were killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1956: A world record for the most rain in one minute was set at Unionville, MD with a downpour of 1.23 inches. (The Weather Channel) (The National Severe Storms Forecast Center) (Ref. For More Information) 1967: Canadian high pressure behind a strong cold front brought record chill to the northern Plains. Record lows for July included: Decorah, IA: 41°, Elkader, IA: 46°, and Genoa, WI: 46°. Other daily record lows included: Bismarck, ND: 36°, International Falls, MN: 36°, Fargo. ND: 37°, Waterloo, IA: 43°, Rockford, IL: 46 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1969: "The Ohio Fireworks Derecho" States that were affected, MI, OH, PA, WV Severe thunderstorms accompanied by wind gusts of 100 mph dumped heavy rains of 4 to 15 inches across parts of northern Ohio causing major flash flooding. 41 deaths, 359 injuries resulted and damage exceeded $66 million dollars. In southwest Lower Michigan, More than 60 people were injured, most of them from a tornado that hit Flat Rock in southern Wayne County. The tornado destroyed a tile factory, carrying sheet metal over a mile. Another tornado injured 11 people about four miles east of Jackson as it damaged a dozen mobile homes. (Ref. For More Information) 1972: Chilly Canadian high pressure brought record cold to parts of the northern Plains and Midwest. Jump River, WI dropped to 27° and Blair, WI fell to 36° setting a record for their coldest July temperature. Also, Jump River had the coldest temperature ever recorded in July for Wisconsin. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1974: Memphis, Tenn.--Lightning struck three youths running across a playground; killed one, injured two. Waitwell, Tenn.--Lightning struck two youths who were playing in a wooded area; killed one, injured the other.(Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1977: "The Independence Day Derecho of 1977" States that were affected --- ND, MN, WI, MI, OH A severe thunderstorm produced vicious downburst winds of up to 135 mph across parts of northern Wisconsin. Damage was extensive in Price, Sawyer, and Oneida Counties with a downburst damage path of 166 miles long and up to 17 miles wide. One person was killed and 35 were injured. Total damage was $24 million dollars. A widespread severe weather outbreak hit Lower Michigan with tornadoes and downbursts. Two people were injured and almost a million dollars damage was done. A tornado injured one person and destroyed two mobile homes and one barn near Maple Ridge in Arenac County. Another person was inured by a tornado at Otisville in Genesee County as four mobile homes were destroyed there. (Ref. For More Information) 1978: A squall line developed in east central South Dakota during the late afternoon. Winds of 90 mph leveled a number of farm buildings in southern Beadle County although no one was injured. A tornado touched down in southern Minnehaha and northern Lincoln counties although the tornado did little damage. All told the squall lines' high winds and numerous tornadoes did $7.5 million dollars in damage. A violent F4 tornado moved slowly through Grant County in North Dakota. The tornado tracked 28 miles in about one hour. Five people were killed in the town of Elgin. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: Extremely humid weather was found across central Illinois. Springfield reported 11 consecutive hours with a dew point temperature of 80° or higher before a line of severe thunderstorms brought cooler air to the region. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982 - A four day storm began over New England which produced up to 14 inches of rain in southern Connecticut breaching twenty-three dams and breaking two others. Damage was estimated at more than 276 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in south Texas produced 6.5 inches of rain at Hockheim, and five inches at Hallettsville, in just a few hours. Afternoon thunderstorms in Virginia deluged northern Halifax County with 5.5 inches of rain in two hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Dusty WA, and wind gusts to 88 mph at Swanquarter NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temp- eratures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Glasgow MT and Havre MT with readings of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains Region and the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. Just four tornadoes were reported, but there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994: Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the southeast Gulf of Mexico on July 1st and moved north at 10 mph. The center crossed the panhandle near Destin at 0900z on July 3rd. At landfall the minimum central pressure was 993 millibars (29.32 inches of mercury) with maximum sustained winds of 63 mph and gusts unofficially estimated at 86 mph. Alberto weakened to a depression before moving into southeast Alabama the evening of July 3rd, then meandered around east central Alabama and west central Georgia for 72 hours dropping rains that locally exceeded 20 inches in southwest Georgia. River flooding in Georgia and Alabama spread into the Florida panhandle on July 5th, and along with six to 14 inches of additional rain from the remnants of Alberto, caused extensive flooding. Flood crests exceed 100-year events on the Apalachicola and Chipola Rivers. Damage to buildings, roads, water systems and other public property was estimated at $40 million dollars. Insured losses to buildings and vehicles were estimated at $15 million dollars. Agricultural losses were estimated at $25 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: 19 members of a single family were struck by a lightning bolt during a Fourth of July fireworks display in Visalia, NC. A bolt of lightning struck a construction crane, crossed wet ground and surged through a fence, affecting 70 people altogether. Fortunately, no one was killed or seriously injured. It is believed to be the most people ever struck by a single bolt of lightning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: A severe hailstorm struck Scottsbluff, NE producing hail up to 3 inches in diameter. About 12 people were injured with damage estimated at $50 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

84 / 72 heating up quick. Peak heat lingers the next 6 - 8 hours ahead of scattered storms tonight , still think many get their shows in and otherwise a great beach , bbq, pool day today. Sun - Tue - not so nice and a miserable period for outside / beach / bbq Sun / Monday wettest 1 - >3 inches of rain focused along kind of stalled out and hung up boundary (no surprise). Dries out and warms up by Wed - Fri with next shot at some starggler 90s in the hotter locations. Ridge pumps out west with weakness / trough into the northeast through the 14th. Beyond there ridge and heat expand east and moderation to a warm - hot pattern beyond there. 7/4 : Hot / Humid - storms - scattered 7/5 - 7/7 : Cool / wet storms rain totals upto >3 inches possible 7/8 - 7/10 : Near normal - warmer some hot locations could touch 90 7/11 - 7/14 : below normal / wetter 7/15 - beyond : Moderation to warmer / near-above normal , Heat signal as western ridge expands and heat comes east

Those higher probabilities should be adjusted N/NNE based on guidance

No. But it’s been a good stretch for the fruit trees with rain every few days…just wanna keep the streak going.

WB 11Z HRRR....thunderstorms move west to east starting around 5.

82/70/84 Juat watered my grass seed and garden and deck plants. Was quite comfortable in the shade.

Bottomed out at 74F, currently 80F. Forecast keeps me under 100F today, should only reach a refreshing 98F.

Yeah, almost every time an article from The Guardian appeared in my feed, it was "Climate catastrophe!! World ending, everyone's gonna die!!" I guess they're some of the folks pushing for "degrowth". I had to block them, because I'm damn sick and tired of seeing nothing but bad news, all day, every day.

Today's the day where some wicked storm fires up and we see a top to 45-50,000 ft.

Don’t want to get too far off topic (spoiler I did, skip now if you hate this stuff) but I agree skepticism is valuable, the backbone of science, but like any tool can be used to mislead or misapplied. Productive AGW debate lives in the averages, not in the extremes, trying to link a single extreme event seems like it will fail from the onset based on the required burden of scientific proof. But at the same time it’s equally as disingenuous to point at those people and question the whole notion. You’re always going to have weenies reporting erroneous snow reports from Lunenburg that tack on 4 extra inches. Who doesn’t love 4 more inches… of snow. Or a 133 HI in New Jersey. Or sensor errors. Or changes in local environment. All of which make comparing specific information today to the past difficult, and merit discussion, but not throwing the baby out with the bathwater. The use of end of the world narrative is similar in my opinion, the goal is to avoid a measured middle ground. There’s a lot of middle ground between it doesn’t matter and end of the world. Impacts could be gradual compared to an individual’s timeline, but time is relative. If a coastal area of millions and its associated infrastructure slowly becomes uninhabitable in a century, that’s a big deal, but not for everyone living now. That scenario still causes a significant amount of disruption and potential suffering. Discussions on how to prepare/ advances in the ability to quickly establish/increase infrastructure in the event of mass migration are still fruitful. This is just one aspect, crop failures, ecosystem disruption, etc. There is potential for suffering, stagnating or reversing/wiping out growth through all of these events without it being the end of civilization. There are lots of examples through history, too, of near total and local scale civilization collapse. It’s part of reality. Could focusing the discussion on how end of the world calls are absurd/fear mongering, instead of what can be done about the million other possibilities, be a ploy to polarize to the point nothing is done outside of elite circles? Which is the radical flip side of skepticism, deliberate paralyzing the masses through skepticism/narrative overload/polarization so nature takes its course outside of special enclaves. Anyway, way off topic and descended into movie plot territory. Going back to lurking/waiting for another 6/1/11, enjoying the last of the heat, and tracking the upcoming heavy rain potential. Happy 4th!

June 2026 PDO: -1.75 AMJ 2026 ONI: 1.0 AMJ 2026 RONI: 0.5

Not Good - especially for areas with no power now

Crazy weather….As Joe said we set/tied another record. That’s 2 days in a row we hit 100 and entered the record book. We had a pop up thunderstorm about 2:00 pm with loud thunder and picked up 01” as soon as the rain hit the pavement it dried right up. Last night I thought the radar was looking good but must have dried up. Looked like State College got a storm,anybody know how much rain they ended up getting? The skies reminded me of my childhood. Look up at the sky and there would be what we would call heat lightening and it was constant. Not sure what the term is? But it was a pretty nice fireworks show! Happy 4 th of July to everyone!

If you want a giggle - look at the NCAR AI site - https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ Looks like a nuke went off. Seems NCAR and CSU think today is the big show and tomorrow still a threat but less so. But that could just be since day 1 is here and now, and day 2 still has some uncertainty.

I’d be more tolerant of opposing opinions if the question was “what should we do about it?” There are serious policy questions about the impacts on society (including costs) of transitioning to low-carbon energy. If the debate was cost vs benefit, that is an extremely healthy and useful discussion.

4-6” is your call. Fingers crossed . I’ll be happy with 1”

Just rain dammit

I was fairly surprised there wasn't one yet - but I guess owing to the uncertainty in how robust the storms will be.

No rain here but the front cooled us off a bit. Much better out this morning than last, got down to 76 and now I’m at 80 with dew point 70. Yesterday at this time it was already 87

I’m just busting. I do think the main axis of 2+” remains south.

Thanks for changing the subject lol. Today has the big storm vibe. It was lacking the past two days. Today feels different. LFG! Happy 4th to everyone. Hopefully storms happen between plans.