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I want frozen ground, But we don't always get what we want.

You may do it, sure enough. Thinking I might bottom out around 24-25.

I agree. Not an ideal time for it for me. But oh well.

0z NAM is doing NAM things… drying out quite a bit in some of the expected higher-end areas in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. DVN goes from over a foot down to 9” this run.

34.7 at 9pm and my coldest at midnight is 32 .

Climo is always a viable option forecast at 4-5 days. It may be right, but it may be wrong. It's too early on this one. I will say that I'd love to see this a hit along the lines of the Euro 12z because I'm a firm believer that the first threat event gives a strong hint at the winter's seasonal pattern.

Couple folks asked about Runaway / Luke. He's fine just busy.

Hope you're wrong. Don't want it.

Not a bad first guess, Ray. Kind of feels like a pretty decent 128 gradient if we get a blend of Euro/GFS. I feel like both of those solutions at 18z are pretty outlier-ish

Agree what do you think. LOT has reduced downtown Chicago amounts despite some recent model runs showing a good >9 inch dump. It’s like they are assuming the worst is going to happen so don’t get too excited in the city.

The last time before last year the Gulf Coast witnessed that type of snow event was 1899 and somewhat 1895. That tells you just how historic last year was!

26 already. Maybe we crack the teens for the first time this winter?

Haha, he did have a big miss last year Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This out of Des Moines AFD 393 FXUS63 KDMX 282347 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 547 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged snowfall through Saturday has begun in the west early this afternoon. Significant snowfall amounts of 8 to 12" are expected through Saturday evening, with some locally higher amounts possible. - Gusty winds behind the snowfall may lead to blowing and drifting of fresh snowpack on Saturday night. - Much colder temperatures move in on Sunday, with wind chills in the single digits above and below zero. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The well-advertised winter storm for this weekend is now knocking on our doorstep early this afternoon. The responsible wave is now making it`s way over the Rockies, with surface low pressure building over the plains. Pressure gradients are tightening in response to this, increasing southerly flow and beginning to stream gulf moisture northward. Weak frontogenesis on the periphery of the building low pressure is currently producing radar returns (snow) over eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and up into the Dakotas where a lobe of better upper level moisture is also present. This precipitation is combating some drier air below and struggling to reach the ground, although surface observations and MPING reports are already beginning to report snow over the western portions of Iowa. As we progress through this afternoon, this precipitation aloft will slowly drift east and continue to saturate down through the dry layer beneath. At the same time, increasing low level moisture transport and theta-e advection will begin to lift northward ahead of the building surface low, giving this area of precipitation the extra push it needs to reach the surface. This will mark the beginning of our prolonged period of snowfall over the state. Precipitation coverage will initially be focused under this initial lobe of weak frontogenesis and theta-e advection. However, as the 500 mb wave continues toward the central CONUS, and deepens into a pronounced trough, the building surface low pressure will close off and lift toward the state. This will bring strong isentropic lift up into Iowa, causing the precipitation to expand over the entirety of the state throughout the day Saturday. Snowfall amounts have continued the upward trend this shift, now increasing southward and slightly eastward. The expectation is still that most of the area will see amounts in the 8 to 12" range, with a band of higher amounts up to 15". This heavier band likely won`t be widespread, but instead in the "Venn diagram" where the heavier snow from the theta-e wing tonight meets with the heaviest rates from the actual low pressure passage tomorrow. This area of higher (13"+) amounts varies somewhat from run-to-run and model-to-model, causing NBM to produce a fairly large area of 13"+ values in the forecast. Generally, the expectation is still for these higher amounts to be along interstate 80 and north, favoring the eastern portions of the forecast area. Of course, once you reach a certain point with snow amounts, it becomes more nitpicky than impact-driven. This prolonged snowfall is going to create travel impacts for most of the area on Saturday, whether your location ends up on the higher or lower end of that spread. Likewise, areas that only briefly cross through the heavier bands will still see periods of 1"/hr rates or higher, which will lead to visibility reductions. Farther south in the state, there is still some question on snowfall amounts as warmer surface temperatures attempt mix rain with the snow. However, with the slight southwestward trend in higher amounts, have seen an increase in forecasted snow totals over southwestern Iowa. For this reason, have upgraded a few counties in southwestern Iowa from the advisory to a winter storm warning. It`s still possible the warm air wins out in these areas, but model soundings indicate the surface warm layer will be extremely shallow and wetbulb temperatures only around 33 to 34 F at their warmest. It stands to reason that heavier rates will be able to overcome this shallow warm layer, and snow through it. Dynamic cooling of the layer may occur as well, as snow falls an melts (removing heat from the air) but southerly flow/warm air advection will work to negate this cooling. Given this delicate balance, this area definitely has the most uncertainty in snow amounts. In addition to this rain/snow mix, there may also be a brief period early Saturday morning where ice introduction is lost and freezing rain/drizzle develops. This seems to be a fleeting threat and significant accumulations aren`t expected. However, be on the lookout for isolated patches of ice in southwestern Iowa. The heaviest snowfall rates should be wrapping up around the early evening in our forecast area with lingering light snow lasting till about 10 pm to midnight. While the falling snow should be improving through this timeframe, there is a growing signal for wind gusts increasing to around 25 to 35 mph behind the cold front late Saturday afternoon and evening. These winds should primarily be displaced from the heavier snowfall rate that are associated with the warmer portion of the system, but a brief phasing of falling snow and increasing winds could lead to reduced visibilities into Saturday evening. Likewise, fresh snowpack/loose snow on the ground will be susceptible to blowing/drifting around. This blowing snow, in conjunction with snow still on the ground, will prolong travel impacts into Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Winds/gusts will then diminish through Sunday morning. High pressure and colder air fills in behind the system on Sunday, dropping temperatures over the area. Wind chills on Sunday morning will be near and below zero, making for quite chilly conditions for anyone getting up to move snow on Sunday morning. These cold temperatures and wind chills continue through the first part of the week, with highs on Sunday and Monday only reaching the upper teens to low 20s and overnight lows falling into the single digits Monday and Tuesday mornings. Wind chills through this same time will be quite cool in the single digits above and below zero. Of note, another system looks to clip the state on Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional snow chances to the area. Fortunately, amounts look marginal compared to this weekend`s system, with ensemble probabilities showing a roughly 50 to 60% chance for an inch or more of snow in southern Iowa and only a 30 to 40% chance for two inches or more. Additional details on the early week system will be provided in the coming days.

i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst

What are your thoughts on this @Chicago Storm low or high end?

Skynet sitting back smiling?

Insane difference for only 100 hrs out. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

no problem, Ray! always glad to be of assistance

Another brutal loss for the Eagles. This feels like 2023 all over again. The offense is incompetent and there are no signs of that changing. Anytime they put together a good drive or two the opposing defense adjusts and they look lost again. We’ll still make the playoffs since the NFC East is garbage this year. But I’d bet on a first round exit just like 2 years ago.

bah, let them play. snow football is the best football, and it definitely was as a kid.

Yeah. 4-8” for a lot of us Some sleet. Right now I agree

First Call For Season's First Winter Storm Tuesday Night into Early Wednesday Heaviest Accumulations Likely North & West Synoptic Overview Eastern Mass Weather forecast a busy month of December in what promised to be an active start to the 2025-2026 winter season across the southern New England forecast area, and it now appears that Tuesday evening will mark the start of the onset of what will likely be a parade of winter storms. However, before this pattern becomes established, a strongly positive NAO will conspire with energy over the western CONUS to raise eastern heights on the east coast enough to allow one more milder rain event to track across northern New England on Sunday night. This system will head through the Canadien maritimes and into the North Atlantic, where it will help to elevate heights in the NAO domain as the system number two begins to eject out int the Tenessee valley by Tuesday morning. Heights over the east will subtly descend as the energy shifts east, and the riding builds in the vicinity of Greenland. This will displace the PV slightly further to the south and suppress the storm track just enough to provide the forecast areas with it's first winter storm of the season for early Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, before this system also pulls away into the Maritimes. Anticipated Storm Evolution Snowfall will overspread the area from southwest to northeast late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours, likely around the time of the PM commute, which is important to keep in mind. Precipitation is likely to be rain from the outset over perhaps the immediate south coast, cape and islands. The snowfall should grow heavier before mixing with and changing to sleet and rain across all but the northwest third of Rhode Island, and the immediate Boston area inside of route 128 by around midnight early Wednesday AM. Some mixing with sleet is likely up to at least the Mass pike and possibly the route 2 corridor after midnight, before colder air works back in by dawn, as the system begins to pull away. Precipitation should come to an end as snow showers virtually everywhere on Wednesday morning. Delays and even some cancellations, especially north and west of Boston, are likely. Final call will likely be issued either Monday night or Tuesday morning. FIRST CALL:

He is typically forecasting for Lanco, which is very much on the fence for Tuesday. I think 90% of CTP is in good shape for our first measurable to plowable event of the season on Tuesday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/seasons-first-winter-storm-likely.html FIRST CALL: