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National blend of models forecast for the next week

81

GFS got very wet tonight and early tomorrow morning again

69 dew . How many of those will we have this fall and winter?

I can't say that it will be an analog. But some strong El Niños have been a "one-storm" winter. Even 1997-98, but its storm was 5.0". Some have had no major storms in the region e.g., 1972-73, which also had a pre-October 1 measurable snowfall in Anchorage.

I think we've come a long way the last 2 winters since 23-24 where it seems like the odds we get any 23-24 or December 2015 type thing with this El Nino are going down quite a bit. I really don't think we will be seeing any La Nina looks with this Nino. I think Dec will much more resemble 72/82/97 here than it will 2015, that was just a rare example of where the MJO somehow totally overwhelmed a strong ENSO signal and 23-24 again looked like 18-19 or 19-20, whichever one was the Nino where the atmosphere never coupled. There are some weather bets on some of the rogue sites for cities like ATL/BHM/BNA having zero 70 degree days from 12/1-1/31 this year, that has not happened for any of the 3 since the winter of 13-14, may happen this year I think.

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept. Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below. After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights.

Man, if I’m reading that first link right, that’s real cold compared to today. 80.6° at WXW1 60.8° here at WXW2

Warm and rainy?

80 and dews. Toasty.

I’m just looking forward to the very early and late season snowstorms. The 6z fantasy range GFS has a few inches of snow in 2 weeks…probably won’t happen but I love knowing it’s not totally far fetched!

77F. heat wave.

It is fall, no matter what the temps say for today I am eating some soup for lunch.

We had 107% of average rain April-June but only 66% for July-Sept. However, we had frosts on 23-24 and 8 other September mornings in the 30s. Whatever the reason, the colors have been spectacular. Currently I'm watching sugar maple leaves raining past the window, despite nearly calm wind and 60s, so we'll soon be past peak. The morning low of 60 here is 20° AN, and yesterday's 73 was only one degree below the warmest we had last month. Clouds still look thick, so I don't think we'll get much past 70, if any at all.

I know it is hard to accept because of Fay’s tenacity, but the 0Z UKMET actually dropped her coming back to being a TC. Poor Fay

Right on schedule here along rt 2 ...this leg of it anyway. Color schemes are also species consistent without unusuals. This is the first 'climatological foliage' behaving year in some time...

81 out, kinda clear skues but hazey.

It was a pretty good winter for sure, Even though we missed out on the Biggie in February. would be nice to have a repeat this Winter

Push that front south... I want to play some baseball

no winter