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  2. mitchnick
    I can't lose. If it's warmer, my nice, dirty carbon rich oil bill won't be so bad this year. If it's not, it'll snow. Of course, you didn't mention exactly where it's going to be warmer than seasonal modeling, nor did you mention which seasonal model. But even a stellar seasonal model forecast will be too cool in spots and too warm, so you really can't lose with that "forecast."
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ultimately deemed 1997 worthy of inclusion in the final QBO composite, but agree it's not one of the stronger ones.
  4. Yardstickgozinya
    The southern part of the storm in pennsylvania is still lagging behind in the better environment. Convective maintenance will be a struggle not too long after crossing the river. Not only will storms have to deal with inhibition, it's also going have to deal with a setting sun.
  5. vortex95
    That's what I thought for @CoastalWx when he got his long awaited 6" in Jan --VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL he said. But the NIN "downward spiral" continues I guess despite a solid 25-26 winter.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed, we saw that after 23. The question is, is the leap even larger this time. .
  7. NEG NAO
    as expected the line of storms is breaking up as it moves through NJ - poor timing if it cleared a few hours earlier and temps warmed past 80 there would have been more support further east and the earlier sun sets don't help either
  8. WolfStock1
    Why would a negative feedback be required to stop warming? Warming is by definition not a state of equilibrium. Cessation of warming would only require removal of positive influence, not the introduction of a negative influence. Specifically - at some point we're going to run out fossil fuels to burn (albeit slowly). Unless I miss my guess - that will result in CO2 growth in the atmosphere slowing to a halt, and then probably reversing some as it gets re-absorbed by existing plant life. (That offset is already taking place to some extent vis a vis the greening that's being seen; though the effects are small right now). That aside - surely you understand that there are all kinds of as-yet-unmodeled effects that can happen, right? Despite the growth of AI - we are not yet omniscient. (Of note: Your question isn't actually relevant to the question at hand, since we're talking about world death, and even the most extreme models e.g. RCP 8.5 don't call for that. I don't believe *any* models call for that.)
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    AGREE.
  10. bluewave
    I think an even bigger story than the warmth this winter will be the shift to a much warmer base state from the late 2020s into the 2030s.
  11. vortex95
    Not me. I've mellowed out. When you are a teenager and once in college just getting to know the real ins and outs, and that period SUX for snow (for me the second half of the 80s), when the train finally came in 1992-93, that gives you perspective, and then after something like 95-96 and to top it off w/ one of the most wild blizzards ever in 1997 (the "freak the public out" off season events do it for me!), that made up for all the "bad times." And it just stayed epic, w/ the absolute pinnacle Jan-Feb 2015. @CoastalWxwas old enough to know how the second half of the 80s were Ask him how many times how woke up to sunny conditions and went, "WHAT HAPPENED TO MY 4-8" OF BACKLASH?!" And even though he had to wait a bit longer than me b/c Dec 11-12, 1992 was a royal shaft in Brockton for snow, it all corrected itself soon enough, and for *everyone.* Even when a gap occurs like the 4 years until this past Jan, and then two 20"+ storms in his backyard? Sorry, I don't want to hear it!
  12. weatherwiz
    North part of Sherman must be getting smoked
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is saying that...the question is how does the interaction between the strongest El Niño in history and the most powerful antecedent cold phase in history manifest across the hemisphere this winter.
  14. mitchnick
    I never would have guessed. Lol
  15. TheBudMan started following October 2026 general discussion
  16. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    purple pharmacy online ordering: MexGetRx - mexico meds
  17. weatherwiz
    That warning here is a little puzzling to me. Velocities haven’t looked great (though wind would be right on the leading edge) but haven’t even seen any reports of wind damage associated with it moving into western MA
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The season. may look like 1997 in the mean, but it should be timed differently...you don't think December has a better shot at being milder and February colder than that season? You have been touting a warm December....1997 wasn't that warm.
  19. bluewave
    My early winter guess is that the temperatures will be significantly warmer than any of the current seasonal models are forecasting. The temperatures for the first half of fall have been warmer than any other super El Niño year on record. Plus this is the strongest El Niño by a significant margin.
  20. NorthHillsWx
    90.8 today. 3 straight 90+ days for me
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only rEAL weak spot is solar.
  22. weatherwiz
    It may tend to weaken, unless instability shoots up a bit out ahead of it but it’s in an area of higher MLCAPE now
  23. JTA66
    Yeah, the line fizzled on approach. Was almost dark as night here about 10 minutes ago, but not so much now.
  24. katabatic
    Temps dropped almost 20 degrees to 55 now. Had a few gusty showers dropping 0.18" but nothing even close to severe.
  25. Damage In Tolland
    Please hold that together into and thru this area
  26. weatherwiz
    Kent/New Milford going to get the best goods
  27. mappy
    Softball cancelled. Thundering with heavy rain
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