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Not freezing fog anymore, it's snow eating warm fog now.

I just looked at it, This was at 40/70,

Not only has the west coast ridge trended sharper on the EPC, it's also trended stronger. Good to see.

Well was using this weekend as a guide of "making or breaking" for next week and last nights runs certainly at least kept the intrigue alive. While the likelihood for that initial wave is decreasing, we may be slowly improving the potential for that follow up wave ~16th. One thing to watch too is models being a bit too aggressive with shunting the baroclinic zone too far south and east. Still seems like forever to to but we wanted something to track and we got it

Yeah, the average temperatures at the major reporting stations from EWR to ISP so far this winter are in the 33° to 34° range. We finished December at -4.6° for the 7 station average. Sometimes based on the earlier climate periods we can get similar temperatures at the stations but there can be more departure variability. This is why I focus more on rankings and actual temperatures since departures are based on a rising mean each new 10 year update. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 33.4 0 2025-01-08 36.9 0 2024-01-08 43.0 0 2023-01-08 40.4 0 2022-01-08 42.5 0 2021-01-08 37.9 0 2020-01-08 38.1 0 2019-01-08 39.4 0 2018-01-08 31.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 33.9 0 2025-01-08 37.0 0 2024-01-08 43.0 0 2023-01-08 40.4 0 2022-01-08 42.2 0 2021-01-08 38.8 0 2020-01-08 38.7 0 2019-01-08 40.1 0 2018-01-08 31.4 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 34.3 0 2025-01-08 37.9 0 2024-01-08 42.9 0 2023-01-08 40.4 0 2022-01-08 43.5 0 2021-01-08 40.6 0 2020-01-08 39.2 0 2019-01-08 40.6 0 2018-01-08 32.5 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 33.4 0 2025-01-08 38.2 0 2024-01-08 41.4 0 2023-01-08 39.2 0 2022-01-08 41.8 0 2021-01-08 38.3 0 2020-01-08 38.6 0 2019-01-08 39.9 0 2018-01-08 31.3 0

My storm forecasts aren't actually long...it's only the seasonal outlook.

We shall see coming up here overall it may not be needed but it would have been a nice feature to have to get a more sustained pattern to set up.

cool trend

One of the best football games you’ll ever watch. Playoff this year has produced

Our daughter’s view at work today. Rode the snowmobile to the summit. Operating the top shack of their brand new 6 pack

Is that for all major reporting stations or just ISP, which was the warmest of all stations last month? Every major was around -5 to -6 for the month, ISP was only -2.8.

Good luck with that. HRRR has been a pile of poop lately

I’m just talking widespread warning level snow. Thats what my odds are against. …

OOOOF. I followed that line and imagined a few shattered TV screens last night when they covered every player except Beck. I’ve been taking so many Ls lately that I’ve started not loading any more money onto my FanDuel account

still going after hr 48.. it would be nice to get a couple inch refresher

I like this trend on the Euro

12z HRRR has a bit of snow here Saturday night

Also I think most people aren’t suggesting a big dog at the moment.

this is the most accurate thing ever lol but 95% of people here have no idea what sybau means lol

I see what you mean on the euro AI. But just 12 hrs ago that was a fropa on that model.

predictions made with present data. Not making predictions based on the data changing…no evidence for that. Always the case. But looking at the large scale features and the agreement on them across important guidance at this stage…. It’s very low odds of a big snowstorm. My take.

I’m down to shaded areas only with snow cover; but hopefully about to load up in the next week to 10.

Yea, I was talking more "backyard" snow depth optics. I went from 8-10" down here to T (about 30% coverage). Most dropped down to 1-4" like you mentioned, and even though those remaining 1-4" were totally waterlogged with pretty high LE, that is still a big hit and pretty much starting over regardless of LE. (again just "backyard" base) Now, obviously a different story on the ski hills, where all it really did was add SWE to build the base moving forward--even if there was a little snow depth decrease.

Dont forget after those fails I chime in and state how much I loathe this hobby. Ji then cancels winter for the 22nd time, Weather53 says see I told you we are kicking the can again, mitch tells us he had a hunch January was toast, Terpeast says he has concerns for Feb being we are in a Nina but there is hope, Randy calls us nuts and tells Chuck to sybau, aldi22 says we are dumb, Maestrobjwa tells us hes learning new stuff every day, winter warlock replies to each post with 'lol' or 'lmao', then PSU posts a 3 page diatribe on how he hopes this isnt the new norm. Yeah, I think thats the usual pattern iirc.

I am not saying GEFS is right...hopefully we will be tracking a threat by the end of this weekend.