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Totally agree. Hostile environment. So if the 5pm Scatterometer analysis does not find Tropical-Storm force winds, will it attain or tie a record for the shortest-lived named storm?

Showers here in Brooklyn

Continuously boring in the weather dept going on three years now I could cry

Black flies and shallow graves baby.

i'm in elizabeth and it's pouring

We might get into these showers this afternoon but can't see more than a few hundredths

Thanks. Indeed, the chances of exceeding 100 total continue to decline. For reference, the 1991-2020 average from now to the end is 51: -22 rest of Sept -22 during Oct -6 during Nov -1 during Dec So, to reach 100, 2025 would need to be ~10 above the 1991-2020 avg, a tall but not near impossible order. But it being a weak La Nina and recent seasons being pretty heavily backloaded help those chances to an extent. What Gabrielle does or doesn’t do will be a pretty significant part of the mix.

does not specifically say "east coast USA". East coast Bermuda?

Not a cloud in the sky and its noon on Sept 17, can't say I've had that since Aug but for this time of year its very rare. Highs reaching 27C. Second amazing Sept in a row.

I experienced three drops of rain. It may have been owl piss. I can't confirm. I can; however, confirm it is drier than an old lady's snatch after an episode of "Touched By An Angel," and I fear there is little relief in sight.

I think the background states going into winter are starting to get set…..solar max (but descending slowly), high geomag, La Niña, -PDO, -IOD, -PMM, -QBO, below normal Atlantic ACE (looking likely), +AMO (*possibly* the very beginning of a -AMO flip with the cold pool in the North Atlantic?), non-volcanic stratosphere

Interesting article about housing construction since Hurricane Harvey. Apparently that biblical flooding event changed nothing. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2025/houston-metro-floodplain-construction/?noapp=true&utm_content=img&sid=6899cebb64b7fc37ca04ba24&ss=P&st_rid=null&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business&utm_campaign=hcrn | editorial features

100%. Friend sent it to me from Daily Mail. Daily Mail but still !

All of your points lead me to think that perhaps we are entering another AMO Inactive period. If volcanic activity is in fact an influencing factor with AMO Inactive periods should we look at the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption as a possible catalyst that started another AMO Inactive period? "The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai is a submarine volcano in Tonga that had a massive, explosive eruption on January 15, 2022, which produced a significant tsunami and a record-breaking volcanic plume that reached the mesosphere. This eruption, one of the largest in the past 300 years, generated shockwaves that propagated through the atmosphere and tsunamis across ocean basins, including the Americas and Japan."

.82 for the event. First time in a long time the wetter models verified....hopefully we are starting a new trend as we head toward the winter season.

12z GFS again shows this system unraveling into an open wave in a few days. CMC and EURO continue to be much more robust. Serious spread in hurricane models still but as a whole they have trended considerably downward with the vast majority keeping the system as a tropical storm or weakening back to TS at the end of the period, interesting

Is this real?

They could have left it a depression at 11:00. That would have been the better choice. Thing is a sloppy mess.

What garbage.

Not according to this ridiculous headline. What garbage.

Ocean storm

I've been thinking about moving north.. it wouldn't be for atleast a few years though. I was thinking the Jackman Maine area or far northern NH..

Weren't those in November with all the warmth though? I do garden but it's mostly roses and some other flowers.

Remember all the fires we had last fall. It was horrible. I don't know why anyone would want to see a severe drought. Obviously you don't garden lol.